ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[centuryv58]

Euro Ens.

Yep, I should have included the word "Operational"

Yes, big difference.

[tolakram]

Bastardi is ranting about how bad the Euro has been over 12 days. He is reminded if Hazel but the pattern does not match as there is no ridge in the west. Trough split and most likely position of 97L is near Jamaica with no clue afterwards, yet. Weatherbell forecast for 97L stops in this area.

[SFLcane]

Even nogaps after moving over Haiti recurves this NE

[gatorcane]

Even nogaps after moving over Haiti recurves this NE

The 06Z NAVGEM has it moving NNW at 180 hours on a hurricane David 1979 type track:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pretty respectable ridge on the 00z EPS by 192 hours with the cut-off ULL dissipating by 168 hours over the NE CONUS. If 97L ends up taking its time in the Caribbean it could end up being forced further west once the system emerges off Hispaniola. Extremely dynamic situation unfolding.

[centuryv58]

Even nogaps after moving over Haiti recurves this NE

The 06Z NAVGEM has it moving NNW at 180 hours:

Yes, this path seems more reasonable after the runs from yesterday, but we still need to wait for more.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm not buying into the 00z Euro one bit! Need to see another run or two of it.

[SFLcane]

I see gatorcane yea that would be worrisome it were any other model other then the nogaps.

[MississippiWx]

I'm not buying into the 00z Euro one bit! Need to see another run or two of it.

Buying into anything past the Central Caribbean is not wise.

[SFLcane]

57 clearly stated his vacation in Florida was looking better so that usually means threat is low as it stands. Long ways to go but lots need happen for this to even be a threat to Florida. Islands gonna get slammed pretty bad though if it even developes as the models suggest which have been horrific this year.

[gatorcane]

As commented a couple of pages back, the ECMWF and ECMWF ensembles are showing a "thumb ridge" building in across the SW Atlantic in the wake of the cutoff low moving out by day 10...this is exactly what I was thinking could be a possibility. Let's see if the 12Z models continue to show this:

[SFLcane]

Come through My "magic trap door"

 https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/780400641978036224

[stormlover2013]

all about timing just like always

[MississippiWx]

57 clearly stated his vacation in Florida was looking better so that usually means threat is low as it stands. Long ways to go but lots need happen for this to even be a threat to Florida. Islands gonna get slammed pretty bad though if it even developes as the models suggest which have been horrific this year.

He also said that yesterday afternoon before the new Euro and its ensembles came out. Plenty of suspense and figuring to do on this one.

[CourierPR]

Bastardi is ranting about how bad the Euro has been over 12 days. He is reminded if Hazel but the pattern does not match as there is no ridge in the west. Trough split and most likely position of 97L is near Jamaica with no clue afterwards, yet. Weatherbell forecast for 97L stops in this area.

This may have a hint of self-promotion on Bastardi's part because, if I recall correctly, he used Hazel as an analog storm for his seasonal forecast.

[CourierPR]

The 06Z NAVGEM has it moving NNW at 180 hours on a hurricane David 1979 type track:

Also reminds me of Cleo in 1964. I went through that one.

[PTrackerLA]

Come through My "magic trap door"

 https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/780400641978036224

Euro ensembles past day 10 are vastly different than the GFS ensembles. Euro was the first to show the sharp north turn Sunday at 00z. Definitely something to keep and eye on for the 12z runs.

[tolakram]

Bastardi is ranting about how bad the Euro has been over 12 days. He is reminded if Hazel but the pattern does not match as there is no ridge in the west. Trough split and most likely position of 97L is near Jamaica with no clue afterwards, yet. Weatherbell forecast for 97L stops in this area.

This may have a hint of self-promotion on Bastardi's part because, if I recall correctly, he used Hazel as an analog storm for his seasonal forecast.

Except he does NOT think this is a Hazel repeat due to the pattern. He rejects the Hazel comparison. Sorry if I didn't make that clear.

[SouthFLTropics]

Come through My "magic trap door"

 https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/780400641978036224

Euro ensembles past day 10 are vastly different than the GFS ensembles. Euro was the first to show the sharp north turn Sunday at 00z. Definitely something to keep and eye on for the 12z runs.

In all fairness the CMC was actually the first I believe to show the turn to the north. Everyone laughed it off at first but then the GFS and Euro followed suit.

[Hurricaneman]

Because of the Euro model and its ensembles the track after day 5 could be anywhere from Pensacola to Bermuda so the track hasn't really been narrowed as of yet and thats strange for me to say here are my percentages for landfall impact

Western Gulf <1%
Central Gulf New Orleans to Pensacola 5%
Florida 22%
The Carolinas 35%
New England, Long island 8%
east of the carolinas 40%
Bermuda 2%

thats as of right now but that could change in future model runs