ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

best sat estimate given the current convective pattern ..

23.84° N 87.86° W

[HurriGuy]

I don't know, every night it looks like it's getting its act together, convection bombs out, then the following morning it falls apart into a disorganized mess again. I've never seen a disturbance survive this long before and never materialize into anything. I'm not confident.

It has actually been quite the opposite for this storm

Every night the storm has looked at it's worst and every morning it got a little better each day.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

They had it on the schedule. They were preparing for the next mission. I have been checking their social media.

 https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/770810589308293121

[txwatcher91]

I don't know, every night it looks like it's getting its act together, convection bombs out, then the following morning it falls apart into a disorganized mess again. I've never seen a disturbance survive this long before and never materialize into anything. I'm not confident.

It's different now. It doesn't have a ton of shear or land to deal with, it appears to be stacking finally and has been sustaining convection all day and through the evening hours. Outflow is finally developing and overall organization of the system is much improved. An upgrade to a tropical storm is possible within the next 6-12 hours imo.

[Hammy]

wonder if this is a mandatory down time for maintenance? I believe the NOAA planes can only fly so many hours before mandatory maintenance is required.

Not a bad time for it, honestly. We just got a good estimate via ASCAT

Would this explain why TD8's mission was delayed three hours as per the TCPOD report?

[Aric Dunn]

still have yet to have on AF recon in here... silly TD08

[Texashawk]

So given that a tropical wave/depression has almost 10,000 total posts so far, can you imagine what a Katrina/Andrew/Ike type storm would generate in this era? Amazing to see the growth of this site!

[vbhoutex]

Been interesting reading the last 5 pages. I've looked at the sat pics posted and discussions pro and con the turn to the NE. 2 things I have seen in each of the different sat pics tell me the turn will happen within the next 24 hrs if not sooner. The W side is still flattening a little along a SW-NE line. Even with the blow up near the center as this tries to stack itself, most of the convection with this system is still N or E of it and I do mean all the way out into the Atlantic. Yes, it is possible that the turn will not happen, but I do not think it is probable that it won't. Oh, btw, if I have to eat crow for this post, I like spicy barbecue sauce please.

Cajun?

That'll work! LOL!

[Alyono]

wonder if this is a mandatory down time for maintenance? I believe the NOAA planes can only fly so many hours before mandatory maintenance is required.

Not a bad time for it, honestly. We just got a good estimate via ASCAT

Would this explain why TD8's mission was delayed three hours as per the TCPOD report?

That was an Air Force plane

[Aric Dunn]

They seriously need to update how they schedule / change recon missions twitter is not the answer lol..nobody knows whats happening right now.

[Alyono]

As a meteorologist, I have what I need for the next advisory.

The primary use of aircraft data is not to satisfy the wishes of the weather weenie. It's to provide critical data to aid in the forecasts.

The only additional thing the aircraft will tell us is the pressure. We have a good idea what the winds are.

[SeGaBob]

There is no way this is just a 30 mph TD

[tropicwatch]

still have yet to have on AF recon in here... silly TD08

For some reason I prefer AF recon.

[Aric Dunn]

As a meteorologist, I have what I need for the next advisory.

The primary use of aircraft data is not to satisfy the wishes of the weather weenie. It's to provide critical data to aid in the forecasts.

The only additional thing the aircraft will tell us is the pressure. We have a good idea what the winds are.

really ?

how about wind profile, structure, pressure fields, etc. there is way more data than pressure from recon.. i get it you all can make an advisory does not mean its accurate. current sensory tools can not substitute direct obs ever at our current technology. statistics dont lie unless they are fudged..

[Alyono]

As a meteorologist, I have what I need for the next advisory.

The primary use of aircraft data is not to satisfy the wishes of the weather weenie. It's to provide critical data to aid in the forecasts.

The only additional thing the aircraft will tell us is the pressure. We have a good idea what the winds are.

really ?

how about wind profile, structure, pressure fields, etc. there is way more data than pressure from recon.. i get it you all can make an advisory does not mean its accurate. current sensory tools can not substitute direct obs ever at our current technology. statistics dont lie unless they are fudged..

we'll get a profile from 925mb if they fly. No high altitude data as there are far more important things for the G-V to be flying that a weak TD in the Gulf

[Alyono]

:uarrow: There is no way this is just a 30 mph TD

That's what the latest data showed.

I suspect this is a well formed tropical storm from 700mb and above. It's the surface that is still struggling

[Hammy]

:uarrow: There is no way this is just a 30 mph TD

The planes have been in and out over the last day, and despite it looking better on satellite it's not actually improving much at the surface and based on the last ASCAT pass I don't think tonight is any different.

[HurriGuy]

I am off to bed since recon is not up. See everyone in the AM

[Aric Dunn]

As a meteorologist, I have what I need for the next advisory.

The primary use of aircraft data is not to satisfy the wishes of the weather weenie. It's to provide critical data to aid in the forecasts.

The only additional thing the aircraft will tell us is the pressure. We have a good idea what the winds are.

really ?

how about wind profile, structure, pressure fields, etc. there is way more data than pressure from recon.. i get it you all can make an advisory does not mean its accurate. current sensory tools can not substitute direct obs ever at our current technology. statistics dont lie unless they are fudged..

we'll get a profile from 925mb if they fly. No high altitude data as there are far more important things for the G-V to be flying that a weak TD in the Gulf

not entirely true. as recon descends and ascends we gain very valuable data ,... hell even just 2 days ago the NHC mentioned in the discussion as recon was returning they showed that the heights were a little deeper than previously shown. so much more comes from direct observation its a little naive to only think of recon as only useful for "pressure" , come on now..

model data input ..screw it you know the list goes on..

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: There is no way this is just a 30 mph TD

The planes have been in and out over the last day, and despite it looking better on satellite it's not actually improving much at the surface and based on the last ASCAT pass I don't think tonight is any different.

did you even read the discussion ?