ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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caneseddy
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6101 Postby caneseddy » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:15 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:JMA should be done around 1:35 so lets see what it shows


Looks like at 72 hours has landfall on the Treasure Coast (specifically Fort Pierce/Vero Beach area)

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Last edited by caneseddy on Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6102 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:16 pm

yep!!!! still doesn't finish up till about 1:35
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6103 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:21 pm

Not sure but the JMA appears to have initialized too far South. That could very well have impacts on the timing of Matthew's arrival and the strength of the ridge.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6104 Postby chris_fit » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:24 pm

Here is the latest NASA Model - Ugly....

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6105 Postby USTropics » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:24 pm

12z ensembles at 72 hours:
Image

06z run:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6106 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:24 pm

GEPS Ensemble members are spread further west through 66 hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6107 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:27 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:GEPS Ensemble members are spread further west through 66 hours.


Indeed note the more SW elongation of the GEFS representation in the 12Z graphic to the SW as opposed to the 06Z graphic indicating hints of Matthew maybe getting even closer to the SE coast of Florida like the UKMET/NAVGEM/GFDL models show if not making landfall, GFDL with landfall near the Broward/Palm Beach County line and NAVGEM a bit further south it appears.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6108 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:32 pm

18Z models with a cluster into SE Florida (Palm Beach/Broward/Miami-Dade) and another just off the coast paralleling Florida....yikes :eek:

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6109 Postby Steve » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:33 pm

HWRF doesn't landfall U.S.A. until around 94/95 hours from 12z today, and that's in Southern NC. It's out by 102 but it crosses land on the continental side of the sound for most of the duration
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6110 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:35 pm

Euro has started :)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6111 Postby bqknight » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:35 pm

Euro is running.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6112 Postby chris_fit » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:36 pm

Euro Running Finally...

Init...

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6113 Postby WeatherHoon » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:40 pm

Is that more ridging or less?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6114 Postby bamajammer4eva » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:40 pm

00z nevermind
Last edited by bamajammer4eva on Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6115 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:41 pm

WeatherHoon wrote:Is that more ridging or less?

Looks about the same.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6116 Postby Jevo » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:42 pm

chris_fit wrote:Euro Running Finally...

Init...

Image


Nicole not affecting the ridge at all upon init
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6117 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:45 pm

12Z NAVGEM goes way west ...In at Broward/Dade out near Tampa into Tally. :lol:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6118 Postby chris_fit » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:45 pm

Hmmmmm -- is the EURO hung or just slow on this run?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6119 Postby Vdogg » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:46 pm

chris_fit wrote:Hmmmmm -- is the EURO hung or just slow on this run?

Euro was slow yesterday too, took about an hour to complete the run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6120 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:49 pm

Vdogg wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Hmmmmm -- is the EURO hung or just slow on this run?

Euro was slow yesterday too, took about an hour to complete the run.


Model runs typically take an hour to complete if not longer.
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