ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[sma10]

Everyone is harping on how weird the Euro's end track is (and it is admittedly weird). But the beginning is also - its 8am tomorrow position, is almost too difficult to believe. Considering where Matthew is now and his current heading, how does he end up nestled on the NE coast of Cuba 14 hours from now?

[chaser1]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783387761168490496

Clarification please. Just saw two EURO products, one showing Florida coastline landfall S. of Cocaine beach in 72 hrs., but just prior... a maximum gust forecast that keeps winds on the coast in the 90's range and appearant track off shore??

Might be due to either the fact that the western quadrant is usually weaker wind-wise and/or the impact of surface roughness on near surface wind speeds.

(Sorry, "auto-correct", changed Cocoa Beach);. Anyways, that run may well be bogus then.

"Knots" - my error. Thanks

[Aric Dunn]

Everyone is harping on how weird the Euro's end track is (and it is admittedly weird). But the beginning is also - its 8am tomorrow position, is almost too difficult to believe. Considering where Matthew is now and his current heading, how does he end up nestled on the NE coast of Cuba 14 hours from now?

once north of the islands and left turn should commence fairly quickly do to interaction with the terrain

[Dean4Storms]

Lowest pressure I'm getting off WeatherBell Maps right before landfall of the 12z ECM is 949.8mb.

[Blown Away]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/783385975812722688

When does the magic trap door appear?? Sick...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Further west shifting probable.

Im sort of wondering how to react in Tampa. A storm like this, as strong as it is wouldn't matter what coast it hits in florida it will still be significant on the other side. Jeanne and Frances really did a number on our area and they hit the opposite side of the coast. We had 100mph Gusts still.

[ronjon]

Further west shifting probable.

Im sort of wondering how to react in Tampa. A storm like this, as strong as it is wouldn't matter what coast it hits in florida it will still be significant on the other side. Jeanne and Frances really did a number on our area and they hit the opposite side of the coast. We had 100mph Gusts still.

i live north of Tampa..I wouldn't be too concerned..some gusty winds and rain. But I'd invite friends and relatives to stay if you have any on the east coast of the state.

[caneseddy]

12z European ensembles

[seahawkjd]

This definitely doesn't do the gymnastics that the main run showed. Did the run go bad and they reran it hence the hour delay?

[Kazmit]

[Evil Jeremy]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct8ywH1WgAAnyDf.jpg:large

12z European ensembles

This definitely doesn't do the gymnastics that the main run showed. Did the run go bad and they reran it hence the hour delay?

This graphic only covers the first 84 hours. With the ECMWF operational, the loop happened after that time frame.

[seahawkjd]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct8ywH1WgAAnyDf.jpg:large

12z European ensembles

This definitely doesn't do the gymnastics that the main run showed. Did the run go bad and they reran it hence the hour delay?

This graphic only covers the first 84 hours. With the ECMWF operational, the loop happened after that time frame.

Thank you for the explanation, I forgot to check the hours out.

[robbielyn]

Further west shifting probable.

Im sort of wondering how to react in Tampa. A storm like this, as strong as it is wouldn't matter what coast it hits in florida it will still be significant on the other side. Jeanne and Frances really did a number on our area and they hit the opposite side of the coast. We had 100mph Gusts still.

that's because those storms traveled acrossed from the east coast to the west coast. hopefully this will stay on the east coast going south to north towards S Carolina and not west towards us.

[stormchazer]

Further west shifting probable.

Im sort of wondering how to react in Tampa. A storm like this, as strong as it is wouldn't matter what coast it hits in florida it will still be significant on the other side. Jeanne and Frances really did a number on our area and they hit the opposite side of the coast. We had 100mph Gusts still.

Florida is not a wide nor mountainous state. Think the concern is tropical storm gust, rain, tornados and flash flooding. Plus you might have the obligatory power loss.

[Portastorm]

Interesting comparison found just now on Twitter:

[Vdogg]

Interesting comparison found just now on Twitter:

Doesn't mean the model is infallible. More than enough reason to suspect this run.

[Portastorm]

One operational run could easily be a dud. All this data says is that overall with Matthew ... the Euro and Ukie have done best as compared to the American models.

[Vdogg]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct8ywH1WgAAnyDf.jpg:large

12z European ensembles

This definitely doesn't do the gymnastics that the main run showed. Did the run go bad and they reran it hence the hour delay?

This graphic only covers the first 84 hours. With the ECMWF operational, the loop happened after that time frame.

Why did it stop at 84 hours? Is the ensemble still running?

[robbielyn]

:rarrow:

Interesting comparison found just now on Twitter:

]http://i68.tinypic.com/ivjq5t.jpg

Doesn't mean the model is infallible. More than enough reason to suspect this run.

at this critical time, we can't afford a bad run.

[wxman57]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct8ywH1WgAAnyDf.jpg:large

12z European ensembles

Question - where did you get this graphic, caneseddy?