ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[znel52]

Recon data is finally flushing to NHC servers. Should catch up to real-time soon. https://t.co/jTdPDeAqhj— Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 1, 2016

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF with re-development in the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

Plane entering Yucatan Channel.

[gatorcane]

12Z EC has a 983mb storm striking northern Belize Wednesday night. That's likely a hurricane. I still don't see any threat to the northern Gulf. Looks like a southern to central BoC storm.

Yep there appears to be staunch ridging over the entire Gulf which would prevent this system from turning northward no matter how strong or no matter if the center relocates, wobbles, etc...typical track for this time of year. Now we focus on Jamaica/Belize/Caribbean and the potential impacts of this strengthening system...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011843
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 13 20160801
183330 2209N 08611W 4099 07442 0434 -165 -209 193008 009 018 000 00
183400 2206N 08610W 4098 07444 0434 -165 -210 193008 008 016 000 00
183430 2204N 08609W 4099 07443 0433 -165 -210 193007 008 018 000 00
183500 2202N 08608W 4098 07445 0433 -170 -210 195007 007 017 000 00
183530 2159N 08607W 4099 07443 0432 -172 -204 200006 007 017 000 00
183600 2157N 08606W 4098 07443 0432 -175 -203 194006 006 018 000 00
183630 2154N 08605W 4099 07442 0433 -170 -206 194006 007 017 000 00
183700 2152N 08604W 4101 07440 0433 -170 -213 202006 006 017 000 00
183730 2149N 08603W 4098 07445 0435 -175 -205 205005 006 017 000 00
183800 2147N 08602W 4098 07448 0436 -175 -203 203006 006 017 000 00
183830 2145N 08601W 4099 07447 0437 -175 -211 202006 006 017 000 00
183900 2142N 08600W 4099 07448 0437 -174 -211 192006 006 017 000 00
183930 2140N 08558W 4098 07449 0437 -174 -211 191005 005 016 000 00
184000 2137N 08557W 4098 07450 0438 -175 -202 198005 005 017 000 00
184030 2137N 08557W 4098 07450 0438 -175 -203 219004 004 017 000 00
184100 2132N 08555W 4099 07449 0438 -171 -204 243006 006 016 001 00
184130 2130N 08554W 4097 07450 0437 -170 -214 228007 008 017 000 00
184200 2127N 08553W 4101 07444 0436 -170 -216 225007 007 017 000 00
184230 2125N 08552W 4098 07448 0437 -170 -222 221007 007 017 000 00
184300 2122N 08551W 4098 07446 0436 -170 -221 220006 006 017 000 00

[Bad_Hurricane]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 17:21Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 01

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: 17:20Z on Monday
Coordinates: 28.1N 88.5W
Location: 160 statute miles (258 km) to the SE (144°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Pressure Altitude: 7,010 meters (22,999 feet)
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: -15°C (5°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: -22°C (-8°F)
Weather (within 30 nm): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Radar Capability: Yes
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,640 geopotential meters (25,066 geopotential feet)

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 18:11Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 02

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: 18:00Z on Monday
Coordinates: 24.9N 87.4W
Location: 354 statute miles (569 km) to the W (274°) from Key West, FL, USA.
Pressure Altitude: 7,020 meters (23,031 feet)
Flight Level Wind: From 90° at 13 knots (From the E at ~ 14.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: -17°C (1°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: -35°C (-31°F)
Weather (within 30 nm): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Radar Capability: Yes
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,630 geopotential meters (25,033 geopotential feet)

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Location: 16.4°N 73.4°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM

[chaser1]

12Z EC has a 983mb storm striking northern Belize Wednesday night. That's likely a hurricane. I still don't see any threat to the northern Gulf. Looks like a southern to central BoC storm.

Yep there appears to be staunch ridging over the entire Gulf which would prevent this system from turning northward no matter how strong or no matter if the center relocates, wobbles, etc...typical track for this time of year. Now we focus on Jamaica/Belize/Caribbean and the potential impacts of this strengthening system...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

There does still appear to be a small window where the mid level flow appears to be southerly between the two solid mid level high's just north of the Bahamas and E. Texas. That window is small however and looks to be gone in 18 hours or so. That 594 mid level high looks to be the dominant feature that doesn't look like it'll budge in the foreseeable future. With the increased westward motion in the near term, will only further insure that same (or possibly south of due west) motion likely to occur.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 011853
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 14 20160801
184330 2120N 08550W 4099 07445 0436 -170 -217 220005 006 017 000 00
184400 2118N 08549W 4099 07446 0436 -168 -210 216005 005 016 000 00
184430 2115N 08548W 4097 07450 0436 -169 -207 220005 006 017 000 00
184500 2113N 08547W 4099 07445 0437 -165 -216 227006 006 016 000 00
184530 2110N 08546W 4099 07445 0436 -165 -217 224007 007 016 000 00
184600 2108N 08545W 4099 07446 0436 -164 -216 234008 008 017 000 00
184630 2105N 08544W 4099 07445 0436 -164 -233 240007 008 018 000 00
184700 2103N 08543W 4098 07446 0436 -165 -220 245006 006 017 000 00
184730 2100N 08541W 4098 07446 0434 -168 -212 227007 008 017 000 00
184800 2058N 08540W 4095 07454 0437 -169 -206 217008 008 018 000 00
184830 2055N 08539W 4095 07454 0437 -166 -210 219008 008 019 000 00
184900 2053N 08538W 4099 07444 0435 -165 -226 218007 008 018 000 00
184930 2051N 08537W 4099 07445 0433 -165 -232 210007 007 016 000 00
185000 2048N 08536W 4098 07445 0432 -165 -232 208006 007 017 000 00
185030 2046N 08535W 4099 07441 0432 -165 -231 219006 006 017 001 00
185100 2043N 08534W 4099 07441 0431 -165 -229 214006 006 018 000 00
185130 2041N 08533W 4100 07439 0431 -165 -233 201006 007 019 000 00
185200 2038N 08532W 4099 07441 0431 -165 -245 202006 007 016 000 00
185230 2036N 08531W 4098 07441 0431 -165 -240 202006 006 018 000 00
185300 2033N 08530W 4099 07442 0432 -165 -223 188006 007 015 001 00
$$

[tolakram]

12Z Full rez Euro via Weatherbell.

983MB storm just before landfall in Belize.
997MB skirting the north Mexican coast.

Euro has shown a left bias in the past so I suspect it may be a little more offshore, but the ridge is very strong.

[chaser1]

Any bets on lowest pressure achieved?

[znel52]

Any bets on lowest pressure achieved?

1006mb

[wxman57]

Got a ship report near what may be the LLC. SSE at 35kts:

[Yellow Evan]

Conditions to become less favorable soon

Code: Select all

                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL972016  08/01/16  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    40    42    44    47    49    52    54    58    62    65    68    72    77
V (KT) LAND       40    42    44    47    49    52    54    58    39    38    41    46    36
V (KT) LGEM       40    41    42    43    45    46    47    49    35    35    38    43    35
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         8    10    15    18    15    19    14    15     9    12     6     6     7
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     2     1     2     0     3    -3    -4    -4    -4    -6     0    -2     0
SHEAR DIR        227   233   271   283   292   294   314   291   335   297   316    13    79
SST (C)         29.2  29.1  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.4  29.8  29.8  29.9  29.9  29.7  29.7  29.8
POT. INT. (KT)   158   156   154   154   153   159   166   166   168   168   164   163   165
ADJ. POT. INT.   163   160   155   153   152   156   162   161   161   160   154   151   152
200 MB T (C)   -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8
200 MB VXT (C)   0.2   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)      13    12    12    11    12    10    10     9     9     9     9     9     9
700-500 MB RH     59    62    63    63    67    74    75    77    78    79    79    79    79
MODEL VTX (KT)     9     8  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    77    92    78    59    56    56    50    45    27    25    41    65    54
200 MB DIV        39    38    39    20    33    47    57    78    54    57    45    35    19
700-850 TADV       9     2    -3    -8   -10   -10    -7    -1    -2    -8    -5   -11    -1
LAND (KM)        182   176   122   167   268   192   168    45  -137    33   154    61   -91
LAT (DEG N)     16.4 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)     73.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    18    18    16    15    14    12    12    11    11    11    10     8     8
HEAT CONTENT      57    78   107    87    54    39    48    40    45     6    19    18    30

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18      CX,CY: -17/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  40            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  591  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  15.0 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  87.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            8.9

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   3.   4.   8.  12.  17.  20.  23.  27.  29.  30.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -3.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -7.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -8.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   5.   5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   4.   7.   9.  12.  14.  18.  22.  25.  28.  32.  37.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   40. LAT, LON:   16.4    73.4

      ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST     08/01/16  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.60           7.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    13.5      28.8  to    2.9       0.59           3.1
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    76.6       0.0  to  155.1       0.49           1.9
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    15.0      37.5  to    2.9       0.65           3.4
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -1.8       2.8  to   -3.1       0.78           4.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    40.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.49           0.9
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    33.8     -23.1  to  181.5       0.28           0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   116.3      28.4  to  139.1       0.79           2.4
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0     100.0  to    0.0       1.00           1.3
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   170.2     960.3  to  -67.1       0.77           0.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  13% is   2.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  39% is   3.4 times sample mean (11.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  25% is   3.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  12% is   3.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  10% is   2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  21% is   4.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    13.1%   39.0%   24.7%   12.4%    9.7%   10.4%   20.5%
    Logistic:     7.8%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%    0.0%  999.0%   25.4%
    Bayesian:     1.6%   14.2%    5.1%    0.5%    0.3%    1.5%    7.3%
   Consensus:     7.5%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%    3.3%  999.0%   17.8%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST     08/01/16  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST     08/01/2016  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  40    42    44    47    49    52    54    58    39    38    41    46    36
 18HR AGO           40    39    41    44    46    49    51    55    36    35    38    43    33
 12HR AGO           40    37    36    39    41    44    46    50    31    30    33    38    28
  6HR AGO           40    34    31    30    32    35    37    41    22    21    24    29    19
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

[Alyono]

That would explain the lack of development in the GFS and CMC. Moderate to strong shear may affect this in about a day or so

[Tireman4]

Not to ask a dumb question, but these are ships in the area (cruise, freighter or otherwise) scanning with their radar, correct?

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT11 KNHC 011843
97779 18404 20216 85900 70100 99005 68701 /5763
RMK AF300 01DDA INVEST OB 03
SWS = 17 KTS

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 18:43Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 03

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: 18:40Z on Monday
Coordinates: 21.6N 85.9W
Location: 68 statute miles (110 km) to the ENE (64°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico.
Pressure Altitude: 7,010 meters (22,999 feet)
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: -18°C (-0°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: -20°C (-4°F)
Weather (within 30 nm): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Radar Capability: Yes
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,630 geopotential meters (25,033 geopotential feet)

Remarks Section ...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 17 knots (~ 19.6 mph

[Nikki]

Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR Surface Rain Rate Est. Sfc. Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Using Est. Red. Factor Peak Wind at Flight Lvl. to Est. Sfc. Red. Factor
18:43:30Z 21.333N 85.833W 409.9 mb
(~ 12.11 inHg) 7,445 meters
(~ 24,426 feet) - 436 meters
(~ 1,430 feet) From 220° at 5 knots
(From the SW at ~ 5.8 mph) -17.0°C
(~ 1.4°F) -21.7°C
(~ -7.1°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 17 knots
(~ 19.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 14.2 knots (~ 16.3 mph)
283.3%
18:44:00Z 21.300N 85.817W 409.9 mb
(~ 12.11 inHg) 7,446 meters
(~ 24,429 feet) - 436 meters
(~ 1,430 feet) From 216° at 5 knots
(From the SW at ~ 5.8 mph) -16.8°C
(~ 1.8°F) -21.0°C
(~ -5.8°F) 5 knots
(~ 5.8 mph) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 16.0 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
320.0%
18:44:30Z 21.250N 85.800W 409.7 mb
(~ 12.10 inHg) 7,450 meters
(~ 24,442 feet) - 436 meters
(~ 1,430 feet) From 220° at 5 knots
(From the SW at ~ 5.8 mph) -16.9°C
(~ 1.6°F) -20.7°C
(~ -5.3°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 17 knots
(~ 19.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 14.2 knots (~ 16.3 mph)
283.3%
18:45:00Z 21.217N 85.783W 409.9 mb
(~ 12.11 inHg) 7,445 meters
(~ 24,426 feet) - 437 meters
(~ 1,434 feet) From 227° at 6 knots
(From the SW at ~ 6.9 mph) -16.5°C
(~ 2.3°F) -21.6°C
(~ -6.9°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 16.0 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
266.7%
18:45:30Z 21.167N 85.767W 409.9 mb
(~ 12.11 inHg) 7,445 meters
(~ 24,426 feet) - 436 meters
(~ 1,430 feet) From 224° at 7 knots
(From the SW at ~ 8.1 mph) -16.5°C
(~ 2.3°F) -21.7°C
(~ -7.1°F) 7 knots
(~ 8.1 mph) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 16.0 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
228.6%
18:46:00Z 21.133N 85.750W 409.9 mb
(~ 12.11 inHg) 7,446 meters
(~ 24,429 feet) - 436 meters
(~ 1,430 feet) From 234° at 8 knots
(From the SW at ~ 9.2 mph) -16.4°C
(~ 2.5°F) -21.6°C
(~ -6.9°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 17 knots
(~ 19.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 17.0 knots (~ 19.6 mph)
212.5%
18:46:30Z 21.083N 85.733W 409.9 mb
(~ 12.11 inHg) 7,445 meters
(~ 24,426 feet) - 436 meters
(~ 1,430 feet) From 240° at 7 knots
(From the WSW at ~ 8.1 mph) -16.4°C
(~ 2.5°F) -23.3°C
(~ -9.9°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 15.8 knots (~ 18.1 mph)
225.0%
18:47:00Z 21.050N 85.717W 409.8 mb
(~ 12.10 inHg) 7,446 meters
(~ 24,429 feet) - 436 meters
(~ 1,430 feet) From 245° at 6 knots
(From the WSW at ~ 6.9 mph) -16.5°C
(~ 2.3°F) -22.0°C
(~ -7.6°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 17 knots
(~ 19.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 17.0 knots (~ 19.6 mph)
283.3%
18:47:30Z 21.000N 85.683W 409.8 mb
(~ 12.10 inHg) 7,446 meters
(~ 24,429 feet) - 434 meters
(~ 1,424 feet) From 227° at 7 knots
(From the SW at ~ 8.1 mph) -16.8°C
(~ 1.8°F) -21.2°C
(~ -6.2°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 17 knots
(~ 19.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 14.9 knots (~ 17.1 mph)
212.5%
18:48:00Z 20.967N 85.667W 409.5 mb
(~ 12.09 inHg) 7,454 meters
(~ 24,455 feet) - 437 meters
(~ 1,434 feet) From 217° at 8 knots
(From the SW at ~ 9.2 mph) -16.9°C
(~ 1.6°F) -20.6°C
(~ -5.1°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 18.0 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
225.0%
18:48:30Z 20.917N 85.650W 409.5 mb
(~ 12.09 inHg) 7,454 meters
(~ 24,455 feet) - 437 meters
(~ 1,434 feet) From 219° at 8 knots
(From the SW at ~ 9.2 mph) -16.6°C
(~ 2.1°F) -21.0°C
(~ -5.8°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.9 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 19.0 knots (~ 21.9 mph)
237.5%
18:49:00Z 20.883N 85.633W 409.9 mb
(~ 12.11 inHg) 7,444 meters
(~ 24,423 feet) - 435 meters
(~ 1,427 feet) From 218° at 7 knots
(From the SW at ~ 8.1 mph) -16.5°C
(~ 2.3°F) -22.6°C
(~ -8.7°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 15.8 knots (~ 18.1 mph)
225.0%
18:49:30Z 20.850N 85.617W 409.9 mb
(~ 12.11 inHg) 7,445 meters
(~ 24,426 feet) - 433 meters
(~ 1,421 feet) From 210° at 7 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 8.1 mph) -16.5°C
(~ 2.3°F) -23.2°C
(~ -9.8°F) 7 knots
(~ 8.1 mph) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 16.0 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
228.6%
18:50:00Z 20.800N 85.600W 409.8 mb
(~ 12.10 inHg) 7,445 meters
(~ 24,426 feet) - 432 meters
(~ 1,417 feet) From 208° at 6 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 6.9 mph) -16.5°C
(~ 2.3°F) -23.2°C
(~ -9.8°F) 7 knots
(~ 8.1 mph) 17 knots
(~ 19.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 14.6 knots (~ 16.8 mph)
242.9%
18:50:30Z 20.767N 85.583W 409.9 mb
(~ 12.11 inHg) 7,441 meters
(~ 24,413 feet) - 432 meters
(~ 1,417 feet) From 219° at 6 knots
(From the SW at ~ 6.9 mph) -16.5°C
(~ 2.3°F) -23.1°C
(~ -9.6°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 17 knots
(~ 19.6 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 17.0 knots (~ 19.6 mph)
283.3%
18:51:00Z 20.717N 85.567W 409.9 mb
(~ 12.11 inHg) 7,441 meters
(~ 24,413 feet) - 431 meters
(~ 1,414 feet) From 214° at 6 knots
(From the SSW/SW at ~ 6.9 mph) -16.5°C
(~ 2.3°F) -22.9°C
(~ -9.2°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 18.0 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
300.0%
18:51:30Z 20.683N 85.550W 410.0 mb
(~ 12.11 inHg) 7,439 meters
(~ 24,406 feet) - 431 meters
(~ 1,414 feet) From 201° at 6 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 6.9 mph) -16.5°C
(~ 2.3°F) -23.3°C
(~ -9.9°F) 7 knots
(~ 8.1 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.9 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 16.3 knots (~ 18.7 mph)
271.4%
18:52:00Z 20.633N 85.533W 409.9 mb
(~ 12.11 inHg) 7,441 meters
(~ 24,413 feet) - 431 meters
(~ 1,414 feet) From 202° at 6 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 6.9 mph) -16.5°C
(~ 2.3°F) -24.5°C
(~ -12.1°F) 7 knots
(~ 8.1 mph) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 13.7 knots (~ 15.8 mph)
228.6%
18:52:30Z 20.600N 85.517W 409.8 mb
(~ 12.10 inHg) 7,441 meters
(~ 24,413 feet) - 431 meters
(~ 1,414 feet) From 202° at 6 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 6.9 mph) -16.5°C
(~ 2.3°F) -24.0°C
(~ -11.2°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 18.0 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
300.0%
18:53:00Z 20.550N 85.500W 409.9 mb
(~ 12.11 inHg) 7,442 meters
(~ 24,416 feet) - 432 meters
(~ 1,417 feet) From 188° at 6 knots
(From the S at ~ 6.9 mph) -16.5°C
(~ 2.3°F) -22.3°C
(~ -8.1°F) 7 knots
(~ 8.1 mph) 15 knots
(~ 17.3 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 12.9 knots (~ 14.8 mph)
214.3%
At 18:43:30Z (first observation), the observation was 67 statute miles (107 km) to the E (80°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico.

[Stormcenter]

I have a bad feeing this is just a taste of we in the U.S. may be dealing with this season from the tropics. IMO

[Chris_in_Tampa]

If anyone gets chance to get the recon data and transfer it into JPG image on google earth would be awesome - I dont know how to do it and kinda busy here packing down office just in case - I live on coast so we're going to get something where I am located. Would like NHC to find center so tracking can be a little more specific right now all Belize in firing line. thanks in advance

My recon system has a new display:

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... ing=cesium

A plugin is not required, although older computers may have issues running it. It does not work in Internet Explorer 10 or earlier.

Size the window and position the mission how you want it. Then click "Save Image". It saves a .png file, which would be a large file if the window was large. You could open it in Paint and save it as a .jpg and then upload it to a site like:

http://imgur.com/