ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[ronjon]

Don't models suppose to run every 6 hours? For some reason we'd have one more EURO run before the one late tonight?

Big globals such as CMC, UKMET, and EURO are run twice a day at 00z and 12z GMT.

[hcane27]

The model performance as calculated since the first advisories were issued ... only listing the models with best performance
as of the 10/04/2016 18z model runs

24 hrs .... error nautical miles <50
JGSI 31
TCCN 37
OFCL 38
AP13 41
TCOA 42
TCOE 42
TCON 42
AP16 43
OFCI 43
CTCX 44
JGSM 44
UKMI 45
EGRR 46
UKM 46
NAM 48
NAMI 48
AP01 49
AP14 49


48 hrs .... error nautical miles <75
JGSM 62
AVNO 65
AEMN 69
UKM 70
EGRR 71
AC00 72
AP02 73
AP13 73
AP16 74
JGSI 74
UKX 74


72 hrs .... error nautical miles <125
AVNO 100
EGRR 104
UKM 105
UKX 107
JGSI 110
JGSM 111
UKMI 112
TVCY 116
AP02 117
TVCX4 118
AEMN 119
AP20 121
AP13 122
TVCC 122
AP08 123
AP19 123
AC00 124
AVNI 124


96 hrs .... error nautical miles <160
UKM 130
EGRR 131
UKM2 132
UKX 133
UKMI 144
TVCC 149
TVCY 149
TVCX 150
UKX2 152
AVNO 158


120 hrs .... error nautical miles <200
UKMI 116
EGRR 124
UKM 132
UKX 175
TVCX 183
TVCY 187
UKXI 199

[Ken711]

NAVGEM is at least persistent, you gotta give it that.

Yes, it is persistently the worst model in the world for tropical cyclones.

On another note, I see that the EC ensembles are nothing at all like the operational run. They're very much like the 18Z GFS.

Is this a good or bad thing for the Carolinas and specifically the OBX?

[TJRE]

more GEFS ensemble members show the lopping movement in 18z run
Seems like EC is not -removed-

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

some non- pros think the Euro has a Fujiwhara dance with Nicole that's why the loop de loop




GO FIGURE
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

sample image

[marciacubed]

NAVGEM is at least persistent, you gotta give it that.

Yes, it is persistently the worst model in the world for tropical cyclones.

On another note, I see that the EC ensembles are nothing at all like the operational run. They're very much like the 18Z GFS.

Is this a good or bad thing for the Carolinas and specifically the OBX?

I don't know how it will be for the OBX I am worried about it hitting Florida in the next couple of days. After it passes FL the models will be more consistent on the path.

[NWFL56]

For those needing to catch up click the link in my signature to see an experimental tracking page with graphics of the last few GFS and ECMWF runs plus links to Tropical Tidbits where you can peruse all the recent runs.

Very helpful!

[boulderrr]

00Z shows an eastward shift up toward the Carolinas and beyond:

[bamajammer4eva]

more GEFS ensemble members show the lopping movement in 18z run
Seems like EC is not -removed-

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

some non- pros think the Euro has a Fujiwhara dance with Nicole that's why the loop de loop


[img]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016100412/ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_7.png

GO FIGURE
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

sample image
[img]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cc/ParmaMelor_AMO_TMO_2009279_lrg.jpg/220px-ParmaMelor_AMO_TMO_2009279_lrg.jpg

This was mentioned with Jeanne and Ivan 2.0 in 2004. Not the exact same but that was a similar looping storm that involved another nearby cyclone

See discussions around Sept 17
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/JEANNE.shtml?

THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE ERODING OVER THE NEXT
3 DAYS AS THE STRONG MID-LEVEL REMANT OF IVAN DROPS SOUTHWARD.
THIS RESULTS IN JEANNE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT LESS THAN 10
KT. AN INTERACTION BETWEEN JEANNE AND IVAN IS SUGGESTED BY DAY 3
AS THE CENTERS OF THE TWO SYSTEMS COME WITHIN ABOUT 700 N MI OF
EACH OTHER.

[HurrMark]

Interesting that the HWRF has shifted quite a bit east. It went from a SC landfall to a NC landfall to no landfall. Of course, it's probably not the best model to use...

I do think, though, that the NHC will probably take New England out of the picture in the next advisory. I don't see anything in the ops and ensembles that would indicate a threat at this time.

[HurrMark]

00Z shows an eastward shift up toward the Carolinas and beyond:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... ks_00z.png

These models are useless at this time...they are only helpful in the tropics. The only one worth looking at is TVCN and maybe the UK ones.

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting that the HWRF has shifted quite a bit east. It went from a SC landfall to a NC landfall to no landfall. Of course, it's probably not the best model to use...

I do think, though, that the NHC will probably take New England out of the picture in the next advisory. I don't see anything in the ops and ensembles that would indicate a threat at this time.

it shifted west for the first 72 hours.. the latter part is to far out given the setup

[HurrMark]

Interesting that the HWRF has shifted quite a bit east. It went from a SC landfall to a NC landfall to no landfall. Of course, it's probably not the best model to use...

I do think, though, that the NHC will probably take New England out of the picture in the next advisory. I don't see anything in the ops and ensembles that would indicate a threat at this time.

it shifted west for the first 72 hours.. the latter part is to far out given the setup

True...still a good 100 miles from Florida, though.

[Ken711]

00Z shows an eastward shift up toward the Carolinas and beyond:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... ks_00z.png

These models are useless at this time...they are only helpful in the tropics. The only one worth looking at is TVCN and maybe the UK ones.

Which color on the chart is the TVCN track?

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting that the HWRF has shifted quite a bit east. It went from a SC landfall to a NC landfall to no landfall. Of course, it's probably not the best model to use...

I do think, though, that the NHC will probably take New England out of the picture in the next advisory. I don't see anything in the ops and ensembles that would indicate a threat at this time.

it shifted west for the first 72 hours.. the latter part is to far out given the setup

True...still a good 100 miles from Florida, though.

east outlier that shifted quite a bit west..says more than you think.

[HurrMark]

Which color on the chart is the TVCN track?

Gray. To be honest, I can't see it at all south of the Carolinas...everything is too clustered.

[SeGaBob]

Is it shifted east for this area, or further on up? (the consensus)

[HurrMark]

east outlier that shifted quite a bit west..says more than you think.

True. It's meaningful in that it is west...but I meant to say that I wouldn't use it for forecasting a track.

[La Sirena]

it shifted west for the first 72 hours.. the latter part is to far out given the setup

True...still a good 100 miles from Florida, though.

east outlier that shifted quite a bit west..says more than you think.

I'm curious...how does it say more?

[Ken711]

Which color on the chart is the TVCN track?

Gray. To be honest, I can't see it at all south of the Carolinas...everything is too clustered.

Thanks, I can't see as well.

[boulderrr]

00Z shows an eastward shift up toward the Carolinas and beyond:

These models are useless at this time...they are only helpful in the tropics. The only one worth looking at is TVCN and maybe the UK ones.

Which color on the chart is the TVCN track?