ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[adam0983]

Will the stall of depression 9 affect the track since it will take longer for it to move. No model ever predicted a stall. Maybe the depression is doing rapid intensification and this why it is stalling. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[Dave C]

GOMEX 26C Isotherm
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 3god26.png

Thanks for getting that! Was looking around for it

[JtSmarts]

Over/under on pressure and max flight level winds found by recon...996mb and 54kts...give me your guess

I will compile the list and see who wins! I will donate $10 on behalf of the winner to Storm2K.

My Guess: 1000 mb/ 46 kt flv winds.

[Nimbus]

Question for you -- Bradenton, west coast of FL here -- it seems that the weather we have moving through here
has a lot more lightning than I remember from near-misses in the past. Any thoughts on why that might be?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6K9OatmRM5ddkNEU0luemNtaVE/view?usp=sharing

It means that latent CAPE was fairly strong and that widespread convection is going on. Rising air making contact with negatively charged ions. More of a happenstance of the environment. Hail and other things would indicate severely unstable setup

Not to mention the outflow feeder band over the area.

[otterlyspicey]

Possible SE jog on the last few frames? (Even though it can be very deceiving on satellite so probably not)
Also, that NW quadrant really needs to get going! I'm ready for a "real" system

[Extratropical94]

Actually upwelling isn't as much a factor in the Gulf due to the Water temp goes almost all the way to the bottom of the Gulf due to the depth not being as much as the Ocean and not having freezing temps dropping the water temps that much during the winter, so the temps don't fluctuate that much. If I remember correctly.

I'm pretty sure someone mentioned the 26 deg. isotherm is only a short distance below the surface.

It's over 30 Degree temp right now so 26 would be probably around 3 or 4 thousand feet.

The 26°C isotherm is usually located at a depth of a few hundred feet, below that temperatures decrease rapidly towards 4°C. You'll probably find water temperatures of under 10°C at 3-4 thousand feet.

[RL3AO]

Cedar Key approaching high tide right now. Water levels are running about two feet above expected right now. Not a surprise the beaches are flooding a bit.

[SeGaBob]

Looks to me the northern end of the convection is wrapping up...anyone else seeing this?

[BigB0882]

Isn't it not uncommon for a storm to stall for a little bit before a direction change? I assumed this stall was just the sign that it will begin heading NE soon.

[Dave C]

1004 mb 40 knot flight level my guess

[Stormcenter]

It's not moving, that has to eventually become a factor in it's future path IMO.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 311635
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 05 20160831
162600 2647N 08414W 6667 03557 0077 +077 //// 189024 025 029 006 01
162630 2647N 08416W 6895 03282 0082 +094 +094 205020 023 033 003 00
162700 2647N 08419W 6941 03229 0092 +097 +089 211022 022 033 001 00
162730 2647N 08421W 6940 03233 0094 +097 +082 210020 021 030 001 00
162800 2647N 08423W 6941 03232 0099 +092 +082 210024 029 028 000 00
162830 2647N 08425W 6982 03185 0098 +097 +095 197026 030 033 000 00
162900 2647N 08428W 6982 03184 0103 +094 //// 196023 027 032 000 01
162930 2647N 08430W 6945 03229 0095 +097 +084 196020 022 031 000 00
163000 2646N 08432W 6946 03228 0098 +095 +083 198020 023 029 000 00
163030 2646N 08434W 6945 03227 0102 +091 +090 200019 020 030 000 00
163100 2646N 08437W 6963 03207 0099 +094 +091 200020 022 030 000 00
163130 2646N 08439W 6978 03188 0094 +098 //// 185028 030 032 000 01
163200 2646N 08441W 6971 03195 0088 +100 //// 183025 027 033 000 01
163230 2645N 08444W 6962 03206 0093 +094 //// 199017 018 032 000 01
163300 2645N 08446W 6946 03223 0091 +093 //// 195019 021 030 000 01
163330 2645N 08448W 6943 03227 0091 +093 //// 199022 023 028 000 01
163400 2645N 08450W 6947 03220 0094 +092 //// 193023 025 028 000 01
163430 2645N 08453W 6950 03219 0097 +091 +088 191021 021 028 000 00
163500 2644N 08455W 6957 03212 0097 +093 +085 194019 021 028 000 00
163530 2644N 08457W 6962 03204 0094 +096 +084 192019 020 030 000 00

May miss the next pass as I go get lunch.

[SouthFLTropics]

BTW remember all those past posts of "If this system were in Gulf instead of the middle of the ocean it would be upgraded"....yep..

Tropical wave Colin set that precedent though.

Not if you've been around here for a decade.

13 years here for me...I've seen this debate tossed around a few times here and there. Either way, we should have irrefutable evidence one way or another once recon gets in there.

[JaxGator]

Looks to me the northern end of the convection is wrapping up...anyone else seeing this?

Yes, it does appear that way and the convection near the center has remained constant so far.

[JKingTampa]

My street has officially became a river here in St Petersburg. Anyone know how much rain these storm drains will be able to hold?

[Weeks Bay]

1003mb and 44 knots

[psyclone]

Cedar Key routinely get a couple of feet of water rise in the winter from southwesterlies ahead of an approaching cold front. It's amazing how easy the water rises up there.

[RL3AO]

Recon almost certainly going to find TS winds with convection this strong. Still not convinced the circulations are that well organized, although with some of the convection dying off it is showing a more curved pattern.

[tropicwatch]

Would really like the AF in there.

[psyclone]

we don't need a well organized system to make minimum tropical storm status. I expect us to finally get over the hump