ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[OntarioEggplant]

Several unflagged >30 KT SFMR readings too

[NDG]

Getting closed of being stacked.

[crimi481]

If it stalls, or drifts sw, I would think the incoming trough would send it more south and east- back towards Tampa area. Anyone agree?

[chaser1]

WJXT was live at Cedar Key and storm surge has already almost covered one the beaches there and is about to cover the roadway right by it. Also, power poles at that beach are being surrounded by water.

Storm surge depends on a lot of different factors but the square miles surface area of the water exposed to wind is the primary "power factor".

Last estimates I heard were high tides 5 ft above normal in some areas.

I just checked on Ceder Key High Tides (Tampa area were real close to these times, perhaps 30-60 min. later):
Thursday Sept. 1: High Tides at 2:40am and 2:28pm
Friday Sept 2: High Tides at 3:07am and 3:06pm

Something to also take into account, there are times during the year where tides tend to be higher and lower. This site that I referenced (http://www.tides4fishing.com/us/florida ... orough-bay) indicated the coefficient to right now be very high; in short meaning that high tides are running distinctly higher than normal. I'm sure that'll all be taken into consideration within the scope of NOAA's new flood/storm surge maps.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

My street has officially became a river here in St Petersburg. Anyone know how much rain these storm drains will be able to hold?

are you in Shore Acres? a workmate of mine is worried about status there. frequently floods anyway.

[txwatcher91]

Really starting to wrap up nicely now on visible satellite. Imo recon will find a TS with 50mph winds and 995 pressure.

[RL3AO]

WJXT was live at Cedar Key and storm surge has already almost covered one the beaches there and is about to cover the roadway right by it. Also, power poles at that beach are being surrounded by water.

Storm surge depends on a lot of different factors but the square miles surface area of the water exposed to wind is the primary "power factor".

Last estimates I heard were high tides 5 ft above normal in some areas.

I just checked on Ceder Key High Tides (Tampa area were real close to these times, perhaps 30-60 min. later):
Thursday Sept. 1: High Tides at 2:40am and 2:28pm
Friday Sept 2: High Tides at 3:07am and 3:06pm

Something to also take into account, there are times during the year where tides tend to be higher and lower. This site that I referenced (http://www.tides4fishing.com/us/florida ... orough-bay) indicated the coefficient to right now be very high; in short meaning that high tides are running distinctly higher than normal. I'm sure that'll all be taken into consideration within the scope of NOAA's new flood/storm surge maps.

The model used (P-Surge) accounts for tides within the model itself. No need for humans to adjust for tides.

[Sanibel]

Slow development. Ready to spin up in my opinion.


Disclaimer: Use the National Hurricane Center for official tropical weather information.

[JKingTampa]

My street has officially became a river here in St Petersburg. Anyone know how much rain these storm drains will be able to hold?

are you in Shore Acres? a workmate of mine is worried about status there. frequently floods anyway.

I'm over near Kenneth City/Tyrone area. With each band of heavier rain we get the water is getting closer and closer in my driveway. There looks to be quite more rain coming too..

[Stormcenter]

Haven't we heard this before, sorry couldn't resist.

Really starting to wrap up nicely now on visible satellite. Imo recon will find a TS with 50mph winds and 995 pressure.

[TheStormExpert]

we don't need a well organized system to make minimum tropical storm status. I expect us to finally get over the hump

Exactly, I'd be shocked if this was not upgraded @2pm.

[MississippiWx]

The SW to NE orientation of the storm is enough of a clue to feel pretty good about a northeast movement being imminent.

[drezee]

Contest ends in 2 minutes

[caneman]

Lots of flooding already in,pinellas county. Water is up and over the sidewalk at Clearwater beach

[SEASON_CANCELED]

did it go southeast?

[AutoPenalti]

TS @ 50kts @ 999mb

[jlauderdal]

The SW to NE orientation of the storm is enough of a clue to feel pretty good about a northeast movement being imminent.

yep look at the direction of the clouds to get a feel for movement..its going to be on the move shortly if not already..its been a real fighter like a kid that doesnt want to school but eventually stronger forces prevail

[chaser1]

I'm gonna stick with my thought of 998mb., though i'm inclined to think we'll have 45mph sustained. Really looks to me to be located at 23.9N and 87.9W

[TropicalSailor]

The SW to NE orientation of the storm is enough of a clue to feel pretty good about a northeast movement being imminent.

yep look at the direction of the clouds to get a feel for movement..its going to be on the move shortly if not already..its been a real fighter like a kid that doesnt want to school but eventually stronger forces prevail

That kid ends up being a bully and beating the crap out of everyone.

[chaser1]

Recon's getting close but still at 10,450' flight level and dropping slowly