ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxmann_91]

Brand new ascat pass.

Lots of 35 kt barbs... recon should find a TS.

[TheStormExpert]

No doubt this is at least a 35kt TS now with the latest ASCAT pass.

[StormHunter72]

looks like an intense band just offshore Pinellas moving NE

we are floating here

Us too in Pasco. This I think is the worst I have seen it in years.

[Stormcenter]

SW drift anyone?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[caneman]

Some pics of flooding here in pinellas http://m.baynews9.com/content/mobile/ne ... y_for.html

[SEASON_CANCELED]

it definately did go south a tad somewhat. Not following models north at all, it should of North of 25W right now.

[chaser1]

Yep Aric, I'm thinking your right about where the fix will actually be. I think my IR estimate just below 24N is off. ASCAT and visible really seem to have got this finally pinned down. There's no way recon can come back with detached centers. Still, i'd like to see some new convection popping and for this to beef up its west quad some

[HurricaneBelle]

I am hearing school closed in Pasco county....

Big rain band just offshore Pinellas

School closed tomorrow in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties as well. That big rain band apparently contains a waterspout, according to BayNews 9

 https://twitter.com/bn9weather/status/771033089757712384

[OntarioEggplant]

Unflagged 45 KT SFMR on last ob

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 311715
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 09 20160831
170600 2514N 08622W 6975 03166 0062 +099 //// 141019 021 036 000 01
170630 2512N 08623W 6945 03203 0061 +098 +093 137019 020 034 000 00
170700 2511N 08624W 6949 03196 0060 +101 +084 134019 020 036 000 00
170730 2509N 08625W 6946 03200 0064 +098 +084 128016 017 039 000 00
170800 2507N 08627W 6955 03191 0057 +103 +077 124016 017 040 000 00
170830 2505N 08628W 6957 03183 0057 +103 +075 126019 021 038 001 00
170900 2504N 08630W 6972 03167 0056 +105 +080 131024 028 036 001 00
170930 2502N 08631W 6990 03146 0048 +111 +092 138026 029 037 001 00
171000 2501N 08633W 7024 03104 0050 +109 +104 130022 023 036 002 00
171030 2459N 08634W 6986 03147 0053 +105 +091 123019 020 036 000 00
171100 2458N 08636W 6962 03175 0054 +104 +082 121018 019 035 000 00
171130 2456N 08637W 6941 03203 0048 +106 +083 131020 022 036 000 00
171200 2454N 08638W 6959 03179 0042 +112 +087 135021 022 037 000 03
171230 2452N 08638W 6950 03191 0042 +112 +078 158024 026 037 000 03
171300 2450N 08637W 6981 03153 0044 +112 +068 164028 030 039 000 00
171330 2449N 08637W 6945 03197 0042 +112 +079 168026 027 041 000 00
171400 2447N 08636W 6980 03155 0040 +112 +093 160026 027 040 001 00
171430 2445N 08636W 7002 03132 0055 +102 +098 177019 023 041 000 00
171500 2443N 08635W 6949 03192 0053 +102 +090 184024 031 041 004 00
171530 2441N 08634W 6951 03189 0055 +102 +083 164023 026 045 003 00

45 kt SFMR. Will surprises be in store near the core?

[chaser1]

Some pics of flooding here in pinellas http://m.baynews9.com/content/mobile/ne ... y_for.html

Wow, pretty impressive flooding!! Hope you've got a kayak!

[Zarniwoop]

I'm probably an idiot, but it looks like its just starting to spin in traditional cyclone fashion.

Be gentle in correcting me. I'm sure there's misalignment of levels or something else of which I'm unaware.

[Nimbus]

Very consistent unflagged SFMR above TS force

where do you see this?

HD OBS third to last column.

Up through 17:05 ZULU they wer 35 - 40 knots lowest pressure ~1005

[StormHunter72]

Possible Elena if this misses the trough.

[Aric Dunn]

I guess they turned to check for winds first for the 2pm.. because clearly the center was ahead of them lol

[NDG]

The LLC is not organized or is further south, recon is heading further south toward the MLC.

[Aric Dunn]

The LLC is not organized or is further south, recon is heading further south toward the MLC.

they turned away from the center look at the wind direction they were headed right at it.

[TropicalSailor]

I'm probably an idiot, but it looks like its just starting to spin in traditional cyclone fashion.

Be gentle in correcting me. I'm sure there's misalignment of levels or something else of which I'm unaware.

Feel safe if the fact that there isn't another human on the planet who knows what this thing is going to do. We've all proven that time and again.

[NDG]

I'm suspicious about those SFMR estimated surface winds when flight level winds are much lower, unless they are the outflow boundaries seen on visible satellite.

[NDG]

The LLC is not organized or is further south, recon is heading further south toward the MLC.

they turned away from the center look at the wind direction they were headed right at it.

I think that was more of a wind shift trough, pressure wasn't that low.