ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

50kt FL winds now...SE quad

[drewschmaltz]

latest 500mb vorticity much more concentrated. Other levels also no so spread SW to NE.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Aric Dunn]

50kt FL winds now...SE quad

not surprised given this current trend. may find some higher winds next set..

[OntarioEggplant]

Much higher FL winds on this next incoming recon center pass it looks like. Already 49 KT well away from the center.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Does this system have a chance at RI?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Third call for this system...not an official forecast.

0 HRS - 45 MPH - Moderate Strengthening
12 HRS - 50 MPH - Moderate Strengthening
24 HRS - 60 MPH - Moderate Strengthening
36 HRS - 65 MPH - Slow Strengthening
48 HRS - 50 MPH - Weakening
72 HRS - 40 MPH - Weakening

[OntarioEggplant]

Does this system have a chance at RI?

Yes especially overnight tonight during the diurnal max with this level of organization.

[Hurricane Andrew]

This thing has between 36 and 48 hours to strengthen...and she is running out of time. I see this as a tropical storm landfall, not a hurricane, not unless the LLC and MLC line up...now.

[OntarioEggplant]

52 KT FL

[NDG]

Getting a little stronger, 52 knots, flight level.

220030 2433N 08624W 8393 01585 0066 +172 +161 200048 052 036 001 00

[SeGaBob]

52 KT FL

Where are you finding this at?

[OntarioEggplant]

52 KT FL

Where are you finding this at?

HD OBS from Recon

[Aric Dunn]

heavy squall about to come ashore near tampa. doppler velocities continue to show 50kt plus wind now with plenty of rotation.

[tolakram]

52 KT FL

Where are you finding this at?

You can find recon here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

It's the last mission in the list.

[tolakram]

30 frame visible as the sun sets.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-87&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

[SeGaBob]

Thanks.

[NativeFloridaGirl]

I'm 90 miles in inland Alabama and came home to a tropical storm warning. What?!?!?

[JKingTampa]

I'm curious as to how much wind Pinellas County might get. I realize the storm is supposed to make landfall quite a bit north but considering the worst of the system is on the south and east sides, with the amount of rain we are receiving.. Even low end tropical storm force winds would bring down trees fairly easy.

[OntarioEggplant]

heavy squall about to come ashore near tampa. doppler velocities continue to show 50kt plus wind now with plenty of rotation.

Yes I'm afraid this band will be the initial source of tornadoes.

[chris_fit]

What I find kinda odd/weird is that there are no TS warnings/watches for Pinellas county and south. There have been gusts in the 30-40mph range today in this region, and the storm is 300+ miles away. and I'm not even talking about all the rain. And look at that band forming offshore. Sarasota and up is floating.