ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Do you think they will keep it the same strength on the next advisory in 15 minutes?

Next advisory is in over an hour, not 15 minutes.

[ronyan]

Big flare-up of convection in the NE quad.

[lando]

@aric - prediction for landfall?? I'm in wpbb

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane, are you in the path of this storm at all? Or are you on the west coast of Florida?....Stay safe!

I am in Boca Raton on the SE coast of Florida in Palm Beach County so basically in the path. Watching every wobble very closely.

[ronyan]

Do you think they will keep it the same strength on the next advisory in 15 minutes?

Recon is on its way and will tell us if it has strengthened. From the looks of it I would say 130 maybe and pressure down to 955 ish

You may be right, it may go cat 4 at 5pm update, but want to see if winds have responded via the recon.

[Aric Dunn]

@aric - prediction for landfall?? I'm in wpbb

no one can tell you that because of the angle of approach. any little wobble once it starts paralleling the coast would bring it ashore.

anywhere from miami to jax

[lando]

@aric - prediction for landfall?? I'm in wpbb

no one can tell you that because of the angle of approach. any little wobble once it starts paralleling the coast would bring it ashore.

anywhere from miami to jax

Of course I would take your answer with a Grain of salt. Like a super bowl prediction. I'm just curious where you have a bunch it'll
Hit

[KWT]

Big flare-up of convection in the NE quad.

Sure fire sign of a strengthening hurricane, the structure was good even when the eye was a little indstinct. Certainly looking like a strengthening hurricane, could well believe it will drop 15-20mbs tonight like the models suggests.

Recon going to be very interesting!

[KC7NEC]

Lost my old login from a few years ago so starting over;

Here is my question: On the scale of actual impacts with damage, casualties, and economic loss at this point wouldn't it actually be more favorable for Matthew to come more west and make full landfall? Yes, wherever that occurs would have devastating impacts but would the land interaction help weaken Matthew enough to lessen impacts of Matthew running just off the coast for hundreds of miles at full steam as a major hurricane?

With eceryone discussion possible wobbles any thoughts on this?

[abajan]

My parents have boarded up and will be evacuating Cocoa Beach. I invited them to stay with me in Key West, but not sure if they will take up the offer.

I would like to visit Key West but not right now...LOL.

The good news is it wouldnt' be hard to get there, as ALL traffic would be moving in the opposite direction!

Unless they reverse the southbound lane!

[Aric Dunn]

@aric - prediction for landfall?? I'm in wpbb

no one can tell you that because of the angle of approach. any little wobble once it starts paralleling the coast would bring it ashore.

anywhere from miami to jax

Of course I would take your answer with a Grain of salt. Like a super bowl prediction. I'm just curious where you have a bunch it'll
Hit

technically it will be close enough to the coast that the western eyewall and thus the higher winds will scrape along the entire coast so everyone will get it lol

[Aric Dunn]

recon should do a pass in the next 20 min

[ZX12R]

@aric - prediction for landfall?? I'm in wpbb

no one can tell you that because of the angle of approach. any little wobble once it starts paralleling the coast would bring it ashore.

anywhere from miami to jax

And THAT is the disturbing and worrisome truth for a LOT of people. Like you said, almost the entire east coast of Florida and more!

[Steve]

Some of the old pen and marks-a-lot meteorologists of my youth would look toward an angle of lean sometimes for forward motion. Someone might have brought this up earlier, but I skipped a few pages between errands. And it's not foolproof by any means as often quadrants can be suppressed by nearby air masses. But often the way a system is leaning will give you a hint toward it's next general motion. Look at Visible:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Now apply that angle of the system to where it would head. Obviously the center can decide it wants to turn or hook or whatever, but from a general/vague point of view, if you didn't know anything else about hurricanes, you can use this tool for short periods of time when it shows itself. This doesn't work as well with completely round hurricanes for obvious reasons.

[Stangfriik]

no one can tell you that because of the angle of approach. any little wobble once it starts paralleling the coast would bring it ashore.

anywhere from miami to jax

Of course I would take your answer with a Grain of salt. Like a super bowl prediction. I'm just curious where you have a bunch it'll
Hit

technically it will be close enough to the coast that the western eyewall and thus the higher winds will scrape along the entire coast so everyone will get it lol

Yea this is what we're worried about. Hopefully it picks up speed and the eyewall isn't over us for too long.

[Nimbus]

Based on the forecast that keeps the eyewall offshore I think Florida may get lucky.
With a forward speed of 20 knots that will effectively reduce the windfield on the west side of the storm.
We should start getting some better windfield analysis soon, except for the exposed beaches, winds reaching the ground may well be 60 knots or more less than the peak predicted winds in the eastern eyewall.

That could make the difference of temporary power outages VS Katrina for a Cat 4 along the east coast of Florida.

[terstorm1012]

Some of the old pen and marks-a-lot meteorologists of my youth would look toward an angle of lean sometimes for forward motion. Someone might have brought this up earlier, but I skipped a few pages between errands. And it's not foolproof by any means as often quadrants can be suppressed by nearby air masses. But often the way a system is leaning will give you a hint toward it's next general motion. Look at Visible:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Now apply that angle of the system to where it would head. Obviously the center can decide it wants to turn or hook or whatever, but from a general/vague point of view, if you didn't know anything else about hurricanes, you can use this tool for short periods of time when it shows itself. This doesn't work as well with completely round hurricanes for obvious reasons.

I still do the "angle of lean". I know it's not entirely scientific. But I'm really worried for everyone WPB on north.

My families all in Dade but one aunt lives in Aventura and she told me she's leaving. I told her going north was probably not a good idea though.

[KWT]

Based on the forecast that keeps the eyewall offshore I think Florida may get lucky.
With a forward speed of 20 knots that will effectively reduce the windfield on the west side of the storm.
We should start getting some better windfield analysis soon, except for the exposed beaches, winds reaching the ground may well be 60 knots or more less than the peak predicted winds in the eastern eyewall.

That could make the difference of temporary power outages VS Katrina for a Cat 4 along the east coast of Florida.

Bare in mind if the forecast is just offshore, the eyewall likely WOULD go onshore, the NHC track probably would put the western part of the eyewall onshore, and obviousy any slight westward hints will spread that inland.

Of course any wobbles will make a big difference!

[WPBWeather]

Based on the forecast that keeps the eyewall offshore I think Florida may get lucky.
With a forward speed of 20 knots that will effectively reduce the windfield on the west side of the storm.
We should start getting some better windfield analysis soon, except for the exposed beaches, winds reaching the ground may well be 60 knots or more less than the peak predicted winds in the eastern eyewall.

That could make the difference of temporary power outages VS Katrina for a Cat 4 along the east coast of Florida.

Bare in mind if the forecast is just offshore, the eyewall likely WOULD go onshore, the NHC track probably would put the western part of the eyewall onshore, and obviousy any slight westward hints will spread that inland.

Of course any wobbles will make a big difference!

We''ll take just about any straw in my neighborhood!

[Evil Jeremy]

Jacksonville is in full storm mode this afternoon. Every gas station lined up with cars through main streets. At least one station I saw was already out of gas, several more only had gas in maybe half the pumps. Publix is going crazy, my local one is running low on water bottles, and I heard they are trying to get more quickly (water of course one of the first items to go).

The rainy weather this afternoon doesn't help. There's no calm before the storm, just cold, windy showers.