ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JaxGator]

Appears to be stacked to my untrained eyes.

The high winds and pressure drop seem to support that but then again, it might not.

[JtSmarts]

Hasn't the SFMR has been higher than the flight level thus far?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hermine is going to mess up a lot of Memorial weekend's plan from the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic, I bet a lot people in the mid Atlantic had no idea until today.

Here's to hoping it's not around that long. hahaha.

It feels like we've been watching the darn thing since then, lol.

[SeGaBob]

I doubt they'll go with a 60 mph TS at 8 as flight level winds are usually reduced down. (Someone correct me if I'm wrong)

[Alyono]

Might be able to justify 45 kts

[northjaxpro]

Hermine is going to mess up a lot of Memorial weekend's plan from the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic, I bet a lot people in the mid Atlantic had no idea until today.

It's Labor Day

Wow, these 4-5 hrs of sleep at night is getting to me lol.

This cyclone has done a number on all of us. What a mind-boggling storm.

[txwatcher91]

I doubt they'll go with a 60 mph TS at 8 as flight level winds are usually reduced down. (Someone correct me if I'm wrong)

Usually there is a reduction, its possible the SFMR reading is in a strong storm or it could be off some. I would say a 50mph storm with 1001mb pressure is what recon currently supports. Slowly strengthening. Tonight could get interesting.

[johngaltfla]

I'm curious as to how much wind Pinellas County might get. I realize the storm is supposed to make landfall quite a bit north but considering the worst of the system is on the south and east sides, with the amount of rain we are receiving.. Even low end tropical storm force winds would bring down trees fairly easy.

you better keep a look out over the next hour big squall coming high winds and maybe weak tornado's.

I don't know how much longer I'll have internet as Comcast keeps dropping near Siesta Key, but let me say that this storm is dropping a boatload of rain with over 7" since Monday in my rain gauge (unofficial of course). I think the SRQ airport keeps their rain gauge in the pilot's lounge because it's flooding all around them on the streets.

[johngaltfla]

It's Labor Day

Wow, these 4-5 hrs of sleep at night is getting to me lol.

This cyclone has done a number on all of us. What a mind-boggling storm.

You ain't seen nothing yet.

I have the feeling the next 24 hours are going to befuddle everyone. The GoM has become the Bermuda Triangle for models and forecasting lately...

[NDG]

Based on the last pass by the recon, the LLC has tugged itself right next to the deep convection near 25N & 87W

[kevin mathis]

Looks like to me, that Tampa Bay northward will experience most of the bad weather from this anyway. Wind and storms removed to the east. I agree that Pinellas should be in at least a watch. I live one mile into the Warning/Watch area...just north of the Anclote river.. 2.5in rain already well ahead of real effects tomorrow....

[artist]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092016
A. 31/22:11:47Z
B. 24 deg 57 min N 087 deg 05 min W
C. 850 mb 1444 m
D. 58 kt
E. 096 deg 6 nm
F. 200 deg 52 kt
G. 123 deg 44 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 17 C / 1570 m
J. 21 C / 1535 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. .01 / 4 nm
P. NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE OB 32
MAX FL WIND 52 KT 123 / 44 NM 22:00:40Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 120 / 07 KTS
latest vortex

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Would really like the AF in there.

Air Force plane is active on the ground, so I guess they will be taking off any moment from Keesler AFB.

[ronjon]

I dunno...still looks like big sloppy sheared tropical storm with all the high winds and weather well to the east of the center. Will it ever tighten up and consolidate, I doubt it with increasing SW shear - but who knows, probably eat a crow pie tomorrow. Not the first time...

[Aric Dunn]

hwrf a little to the east for 18z .. not much . I suspect the 00z will have more of a east shift given the current position and drifting around.

[northjaxpro]

Hermine has been slowly intensifying nearly for the past 4 hours now. That is a disturbing trend. I hope shear imparts on the system in the next 24-30 hours upon landfall.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 312245
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 42 20160831
223600 2602N 08819W 8413 01557 0045 +192 +184 052016 016 017 000 00
223630 2603N 08820W 8407 01562 0043 +197 +165 051016 017 012 000 00
223700 2604N 08822W 8407 01562 0043 +195 +167 051017 017 012 000 00
223730 2606N 08823W 8407 01565 0044 +197 +161 049016 016 012 000 00
223800 2607N 08825W 8407 01564 0043 +196 +162 047016 016 013 000 00
223830 2609N 08826W 8407 01562 0041 +198 +170 046017 019 013 001 00
223900 2610N 08828W 8407 01563 0043 +196 +177 045017 019 016 000 00
223930 2611N 08830W 8408 01563 0044 +196 +167 046015 016 016 000 00
224000 2612N 08832W 8409 01562 0046 +191 +173 052016 017 018 000 03
224030 2611N 08833W 8407 01565 0050 +188 +168 055016 017 /// /// 03
224100 2608N 08833W 8408 01563 0047 +192 +171 053018 019 016 000 00
224130 2606N 08833W 8408 01562 0045 +192 +172 049019 020 013 000 03
224200 2604N 08832W 8408 01561 0044 +191 +182 045020 021 010 000 00
224230 2603N 08832W 8407 01562 0044 +193 +170 045020 021 012 000 00
224300 2601N 08831W 8408 01561 0041 +196 +168 038019 019 012 000 00
224330 2559N 08830W 8407 01561 0041 +195 +170 037017 017 012 000 00
224400 2557N 08830W 8408 01560 0042 +193 +167 036016 017 011 000 00
224430 2555N 08829W 8408 01558 0040 +193 +164 025017 017 012 000 00
224500 2553N 08828W 8407 01561 0044 +190 +166 020017 017 010 000 00
224530 2551N 08827W 8407 01561 0043 +192 +168 011016 017 010 001 00

[txwatcher91]

Based on the most recent VDM it looks like further warming is ongoing in the center which indicates better organization...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Lots of rain in temple terrace...hardly any wind 5mph at most. I suspect this band coming up from Bradenton is going to jlchange that..that's a real band incoming might see some TS winds

[johngaltfla]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092016
A. 31/22:11:47Z
B. 24 deg 57 min N 087 deg 05 min W
C. 850 mb 1444 m
D. 58 kt
E. 096 deg 6 nm
F. 200 deg 52 kt
G. 123 deg 44 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 17 C / 1570 m
J. 21 C / 1535 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. .01 / 4 nm
P. NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE OB 32
MAX FL WIND 52 KT 123 / 44 NM 22:00:40Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 120 / 07 KTS
latest vortex

THAT is very disturbing. I hope this trend to the east and south ends like, now.