ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[benh316]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

East - it's going east. For hoe long - I don't know. But living in south Florida, I just went outside right before a squall and what a difference in pressure feel from the past several months.. even years.

It feels just right out there for the perfect storm. Maybe not Hermine - only time will tell.

Just watch east and south/central Florida better start changing from sitting back to prepping sand bags

[ronjon]

hwrf a little to the east for 18z .. not much . I suspect the 00z will have more of a east shift given the current position and drifting around.

Yeah Aric...seems a slight shift east given slow motion..not sure it'll mean a whole lot to sensible weather.

[northjaxpro]

Wow, these 4-5 hrs of sleep at night is getting to me lol.

This cyclone has done a number on all of us. What a mind-boggling storm.

You ain't seen nothing yet.

I have the feeling the next 24 hours are going to befuddle everyone. The GoM has become the Bermuda Triangle for models and forecasting lately...

Yeah, that is what scares me right now. Although conditons are not exactly perfect in the GOM right now, it is decent enough for Hermine to potentially become a respectable tropical cyclone upon landfall.

[BRweather]

IMO, forecasting rain totals has a long way to go with tropical systems.

We saw how bad they were underdone for here in Louisiana 2-3 weeks ago. Looking like a big miss around the Tampa area and surrounding areas

[northjaxpro]

Recon reporting 58 KT FL wind . Slowly but surely organizing and strengthening.

[rickybobby]

On and off rain in port orange for most of the day. No wind.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like they are doing one last quick pass probably to sample the new deep convection ..

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I told my employees to be at work but I would text them if something happened...we run a delivery service for distribution. I hope tampa Drys out some or I'll have to send out the messages.

I'm conflicted...just have this feeling he defies the models and heads close to us...either way it looks like an hourglass and we are getting a lot of the energy

[sponger]

Heading 096 at six nm? Holy cow!

[benh316]

Recon reporting 58 KT FL wind . Slowly but surely organizing and strengthening.

Northjaxpro - not sure if we have met before but if you work for NWS then probably..

Hypothetically.. If this system keeps heading east, How long before NHC updates the trajectory? Just curious because of how dangerous this is becoming

[robbielyn]

Reed Timmer in NW fl chasing the potential cane.

[NDG]

It sure looks like that during the past couple of hours Hermine as a whole is moving more east than north by looking at the satellite loop, might be just part of the organization.

[Nimbus]

hwrf a little to the east for 18z .. not much . I suspect the 00z will have more of a east shift given the current position and drifting around.

Yeah Aric...seems a slight shift east given slow motion..not sure it'll mean a whole lot to sensible weather.

Actually the 18Z has landfall a little further west with a 10 mb stronger storm.
There is a 1012 mb isobar with a little ridging to the northeast before landfall.

Now we know why the NHC stayed on the right side of guidance.

[benh316]

Reed Timmer in NW fl chasing the potential cane.

Reed should know by now he needs to go south... things are changing as some have feared

[SeGaBob]

Reed Timmer in NW fl chasing the potential cane.

Reed should know by now he needs to go south... things are changing as some have feared

Things are not changing enough to matter... maybe just a tad east is all.

[Noles2016]

Reed Timmer in NW fl chasing the potential cane.

Reed should know by now he needs to go south... things are changing as some have feared

Things are not changing enough to matter... maybe just a tad east is all.

Reed Timmer in NW fl chasing the potential cane.

Reed should know by now he needs to go south... things are changing as some have feared

He's reading too much into wobbles.

[benh316]

It sure looks like that during the past couple of hours Hermine as a whole is moving more east than north by looking at the satellite loop, might be just part of the organization.

We discussed this earlier but it was overlooked. The organization through centripetal force and cyclonic motion caused the system to wobble east much of the day.. It was probably predicted earlier that this would go further east than anticipated due to its failure to organize sooner. However now we may have an even more dangerous scenario where it has picked up intensity ANd speed as it was aimed due 90-100 degrees east by northeast... Meaning it may not turn now anywhere near projections and south Florida may be in trouble and ill-prepared. Scary

[lando]

It sure looks like that during the past couple of hours Hermine as a whole is moving more east than north by looking at the satellite loop, might be just part of the organization.

We discussed this earlier but it was overlooked. The organization through centripetal force and cyclonic motion caused the system to wobble east much of the day.. It was probably predicted earlier that this would go further east than anticipated due to its failure to organize sooner. However now we may have an even more dangerous scenario where it has picked up intensity ANd speed as it was aimed due 90-100 degrees east by northeast... Meaning it may not turn now anywhere near projections and south Florida may be in trouble and ill-prepared. Scary

How much should I read into this? Can it really hit tampa? we aren't in the cone of doom

[benh316]

Reed should know by now he needs to go south... things are changing as some have feared

Things are not changing enough to matter... maybe just a tad east is all.

Reed Timmer in NW fl chasing the potential cane.

Reed should know by now he needs to go south... things are changing as some have feared

He's reading too much into wobbles.

I concurred earlier these were just wobbles but I am concerned now that it has organized that it may not turn as early as expected. I won't pretend to know or even begin to project what that means now, but it is a serious concern and I don't think should be written off

[sponger]

So much for the dry air to save us!

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-87&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black