ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Batt2fd]

[CourierPR]

In the last 4 hours looks like movement has been averaging 350/355 degrees at 11kt. Have to see what Recon comes back with later and see if it averages out to 340 as forecast. After the 320 degree jog it seems to have averaged 345 degrees so heading just a tad more NE than expected but negligible.

Five o'clock advisory says movement is 320 degrees.

[AutoPenalti]

In the last 4 hours looks like movement has been averaging 350/355 degrees at 11kt. Have to see what Recon comes back with later and see if it averages out to 340 as forecast. After the 320 degree jog it seems to have averaged 345 degrees so heading just a tad more NE than expected but negligible.

Five o'clock advisory says movement is 320 degrees.

That is NOT good. Looks like they adjusted the track accordingly.

[scogor]

On the UF/LSU game, an announcement is being made at 5 pm from what I understand. Could someone post the link to confirm UF's cancelling classes on Friday? And how in the world can I convince my 89 year old mother in law who lives near the St. Johns River in Jacksonville to get on a plane to Tampa so we can pick her up and bring her to Sarasota? She and her friends think this is no big deal but I can only imagine what the aftermath will be if the current models are accurate--might be weeks before power is restored to the area!

http://ufalert.ufl.edu/category/ufalert/
I've gotten three email alerts and a text message. The UF home page hasn't been updated, but classes are definitely cancelled.

Thanks!!

[OntarioEggplant]

I imagine that the diurnal maximum overnight tonight will be critical in the strength of Matthew at landfall. I would not be surprised to see the core consolidate and a decent strengthening episode to occur.

[Agua]

I've been offered, via my school, to go storm chasing somewhere on the Florida east coast.

I've never been in a full-blown hurricane before, although I had gusts of about 70 mph aloft in my apartment during Sandy. I told them I am not prepared to go (don't feel comfortable) but others have suggested that I do so as well. I don't feel safe going into an area during the core of what will likely be a category 4 hurricane. That seems too much for me.

Should I stick with my instincts or go for the resume? It seems like a risk too much to take, even though I am in a broadcast met course.

As others have said, unless you have for CERTAIN a strong sturdy building to ride it out in, forget it. You'll also find you'll likely be stuck for days, unable to find fuel and roads being impassable. No AC, nothing. A cat 4 is not going to be "fun". Low end three, direct eyewall, was the most terrifying thing I've ever experienced.

[Evenstar]

The news here in Norfolk va kinda already screwing up with posting this story so now everyone here is going to end up dropping their guard now

Matthew forecast models shift further south, Va. out of the picture (wavy news 10)

Don Slater has never a met a storm he didn't downplay. I'm not suggesting that I'd prefer dramatics, I just hate his dismissive smugness (i.e. anyone who has concerns is a hysterical moron).

[SapphireSea]

In the last 4 hours looks like movement has been averaging 350/355 degrees at 11kt. Have to see what Recon comes back with later and see if it averages out to 340 as forecast. After the 320 degree jog it seems to have averaged 345 degrees so heading just a tad more NE than expected but negligible.

Five o'clock advisory says movement is 320 degrees.

That is NOT good. Looks like they adjusted the track accordingly.

Perhaps the ellipses of the eye is creating a phantom movement. Last 3 frames show now a due north wobble. MIA and Charleston SC Show 500 MB around 5870 which is pretty decent ridging. Have to see if it weakens or strengthens.

Edit: Seems like ridging around SC was supposed to be 5880 in height. So less ridging than anticipated thus far from what I can see.

[miamijaaz]

In the last 4 hours looks like movement has been averaging 350/355 degrees at 11kt. Have to see what Recon comes back with later and see if it averages out to 340 as forecast. After the 320 degree jog it seems to have averaged 345 degrees so heading just a tad more NE than expected but negligible.

Five o'clock advisory says movement is 320 degrees.

From the Discussion:

"Satellite images indicate that Matthew is moving toward the northwest or 325 degrees at about 10 kt."

[ronjon]

Landfall on central Florida's coast Line. In Brevard county. That's the forecast landfall near the cape

Yeah pretty much the 12z ECM track.

[KC7NEC]

That is one of the scariest tracks I have seen. The big thing is it will not be directly over land so will continue to have warm water feed it rather than a typical landfall where it gets over land completely. Working up the coast for hundreds of miles at full bore.

This will no doubt be a Top 5 storm in regards to damage and economic loss. I just pray people are taking it serious and are not complacent from no storms in so long and that casualties will be low.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/783773020775063552

[jasons2k]

I have to say I really enjoyed Avila's discussion this afternoon. Laying-out the key points as a list, in plain language, is a great way to communicate the message. Kudos to the NHC!

[MGC]

Matthew had an elliptical eye before it hit Haiti. Eye is pretty big so it will take a while to contract. This is worst case for the east coast of Florida, as a large swath of coastline could have major hurricane conditions......MGC

[Steve]

For Florida, I'm seeing people say it's west, it's east, the track is heading more offshore, the track is heading more on shore. I mean it is literally all over the place.

I'm not letting my guard down, but I know my mom heard from some random source that track will keep hurricane winds well offshore in pbc and she's becoming complacent.

I know everybody is entitled to their own opionion, but I really wish we'd stick to more facts and or predictions based on currents facts.

That's what NOAA and NHC are for. They come highly recommended.

[sikkar]

Appears to be under RI.

[bqknight]

It looks like its blowing up on satellite.

[gboudx]

Got this from my LSU source:

LSU’s football game against Florida on Saturday will not be moved from Gainesville at The Swamp.

The news came down from the Florida administration on Wednesday afternoon, with an additional update set for 12 p.m. CST on Thursday.

The release said the game would not be moved out of Gainesville, though the time of kickoff could be pushed back as they continue to track Hurricane Matthew. Kickoff will remain scheduled for 11 a.m. CST and will be televised on the SEC Network, unless the game is pushed.

[Hurricaneman]

Appears to be under RI.

Not according to recon

[EDR1222]

I don't post on here much anymore, but I rely on this site for so much valuable information from everyone here. Thanks for always being here storm2k. And a special thank you to the pro mets who are always willing to provide their input and also to the S2K moderators...you guys do an amazing job.

I admit, this one really has me scared. This seems different than Frances or Jeanne in 2004.

I will be praying for all of us in the path to stay safe

Ed