ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[psyclone]

Those eastward trends are beginning to worry me here in PR.

I recall some of the very first model runs impacted PR from the southeast. Perhaps we've taken the non Euclidean route back there. I'd be more concerned in PR than FL at this point..

[Hurricaneman]

What happens if the next Euro solution is in the eastern GOM, here come s some busy times for storm2k

[Hurricaneman]

Heck, even the euro ensembles don't let the central GOM off the hook

[Alyono]

Why doesn't the GFS move this system more WSW (ala the UKMET) looking at the ridge? Is it me or does it plow right through it...?

How many times do you need to see the MU drive storms through 500mb ridges before we all realize the model is a flawed piece of dog doodoo?

Or maybe it's bull doodoo

[LarryWx]

Why doesn't the GFS move this system more WSW (ala the UKMET) looking at the ridge? Is it me or does it plow right through it...?

How many times do you need to see the MU drive storms through 500mb ridges before we all realize the model is a flawed piece of dog doodoo?

Or maybe it's bull doodoo

Can't a storm go north through a 500 mb ridge if the steering level is a good bit lower than 500 mb due to being weak and if the steering winds are, say, more SE to S..say on the backside of a high at 700-850 mb?

[Alyono]

not one as defined as this will be. This should be forced slightly south of due west in the Caribbean

[OntarioEggplant]

Why doesn't the GFS move this system more WSW (ala the UKMET) looking at the ridge? Is it me or does it plow right through it...?

How many times do you need to see the MU drive storms through 500mb ridges before we all realize the model is a flawed piece of dog doodoo?

Or maybe it's bull doodoo

Can't a storm go north through a 500 mb ridge if the steering level is a good bit lower than 500 mb due to being weak and if the steering winds are, say, more SE to S..say on the backside of a high at 700-850 mb?

That would mean that you would have flows in two different directions at different heights which means the storm would get the crap sheared out of it.

[tropicwatch]

Is it just me or is this sharp of a recurve when a storm is this far south, somewhat unusual?

[Hurricaneman]

If the GFS is bogus then most of those models will be too

[centuryv58]

Is it just me or is this sharp of a recurve when a storm is this far south, somewhat unusual?

Its not you, IMO. Something strange, or one for the books.

[BensonTCwatcher]

not one as defined as this will be. This should be forced slightly south of due west in the Caribbean

See, I thought that was the case looking at the height of the ridge and even the depth of the system depicted. Although I am not convinced the storm will be that organized in 60 hrs. It's getting it's act together, but dry air to the south might really hold up convection if it's that far south.

Anyway we'll know later this week. Definitely the most interesting cyclone ( or about to be ) this year.

[TheStormExpert]

12z models recap so far.

12z GFS: Trends further East making an abrupt north turn allowing it to make landfall in Dominican Republic as a strong Cat.4 nearly a Cat.5 before heading Out to Sea just East of Bermuda restrengthening.

12z UKMET: Trends further west and delays development significantly with only subtle gradual development through 144hrs.

12z CMC: Reamins the same as 00z run with an abrupt northward turn just SSE of Jamaica missing Jamaica barely to the East then goes over extrem Eastern Cuba before cutting through the Central Bahamas on it's way Out to Sea as a strengthening hurricane.

What I am currently taking from these latest runs is that a track into the Eastern or even Central Caribbean seems very likely. After that where it takes the abrupt northward turn is key for whichever Caribbean Island(s) gets future Matthew/97L. After that it is likely that the Southeastern or even parts of the Central Bahamas and Turks & Caicos Islands could feel the affects of future Matthew/97L while it passes through or near on it's way Out to Sea. At the moment I'm discounting the Euro until I see future runs of it and what they have to show.

[Alyono]

not one as defined as this will be. This should be forced slightly south of due west in the Caribbean

See, I thought that was the case looking at the height of the ridge and even the depth of the system depicted. Although I am not convinced the storm will be that organized in 60 hrs. It's getting it's act together, but dry air to the south might really hold up convection if it's that far south.

Anyway we'll know later this week. Definitely the most interesting cyclone ( or about to be ) this year.

Due to the passage of the Kelvin wave, there should not be any dry air issues from this

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM heading north through Bahamas very close to SE Florida:

[Alyono]

12z models recap so far.

12z GFS: Trends further East making an abrupt north turn allowing it to make landfall in Dominican Republic as a strong Cat.4 nearly a Cat.5 before heading Out to Sea just East of Bermuda restrengthening.

12z UKMET: Trends further west and delays development significantly with only subtle gradual development through 144hrs.

12z CMC: Reamins the same as 00z run with an abrupt northward turn just SSE of Jamaica missing Jamaica barely to the East then goes over extrem Eastern Cuba before cutting through the Central Bahamas on it's way Out to Sea as a strengthening hurricane.

What I am currently taking from these latest runs is that a track into the Eastern or even Central Caribbean seems very likely. After that where it takes the abrupt northward turn is key for whichever Caribbean Island(s) gets future Matthew/97L. After that it is likely that the Southeastern or even parts of the Central Bahamas and Turks & Caicos Islands could feel the affects of future Matthew/97L while it passes through or near on it's way Out to Sea. At the moment I'm discounting the Euro until I see future runs of it and what they have to show.

You may want to look at the ENTIRE MU/CMC run. The storm is very close to getting shoved into the coast similar to Sandy in both runs

[Alyono]

12Z NAVGEM heading north through Bahamas very close to SE Florida:

what's the link to that? I don't get NAVGEM at the office (shows how poor the model is)

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles not shifting west one bit:

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM heading north through Bahamas very close to SE Florida:

http://s10.postimg.org/f4oc9xbyx/nvg10_ ... oplant.gif

what's the link to that? I don't get NAVGEM at the office (shows how poor the model is)

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[TheStormExpert]

If the GFS is bogus then most of those models will be too

There is a small chance that the GFS is bogus IMO. Yes it is likely too strong with the peak intensity and we will likely see a Cat.2/Cat.3 at peak IMO. The turn north is due to a strong trough or Cut-off Low very typical for Early October as the pattern is progressing towards a Fall/Winter like pattern.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/780458092978966529