ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cdavis6287]

The jog east does not appear to be a loop. A loop does not normally extend 80 miles or more out. What I've been saying may possibly coming to fruition as far as path and strength.

[benh316]

Would y'all quit freaking out about the Slight East movement. Aric already told y'all, and prob others, that its likely a cyclonic loop...Sure could it dance all over the place...YES! I think we have a pretty good agreement this is prob not going to hit further south than the big bend of FL and further west than the western panhandle.

Thanks delta. Next thing you know people in Key West will say its going to hit them.

I can speak for myself and say that when I referred to south Florida I was referring to areas between Lake Okeechobee and Tampa. That's significantly further south still, but maybe by tomorrow morning the idea won't be so crazy.

Do I at least get a cookie then?

[toad strangler]

Structure really stretching out. Very elongated. Thats not a shape that will get you RI ...

[TropicalSailor]

I see someone deleted their post. I find it hard to believe that a 60 to 80 mile swing east is a loop!

Even if it is a movement, there is nothing saying it will sustain that...again, this stuff happens when the lows are trying to stop dancing around each other and stack. It might not have any bearing on landfall.....This is NOT going to hit Tampa or Clear Water Directly.

I know you can understand that a lot of people are frustrated with this storm and the amounte water those in the east received today has put them on extreme edge. It's a scary proposition.

Now let's all get back on topic!

[ronjon]

Yeah both Euro and GFS showed it elongated ne-sw.

[cdavis6287]

I haven't had this much fun tracking the tropics in ages. The low-stakes unpredictability of the past week has been entertaining. Next 24 hours should be fun as well.

I reeeaaally hope we don't lose that overnight Recon mission. It's incredibly essential right now, since the intensity and track are so finicky.

I have to agree. This storm is like gambling in Vegas as far as path and strength. Only thing that sucks is its prob about 24 hrs or a little more from making landfall (ups the stakes I guess). I'm putting my chips on what I've been saying. Easterly jog to Cedar Key Fl area or slightly north then ENE across north Fl as a weak Hurricane upon landfall.

[tolakram]

I've been removing some posts here.

I will remind everyone not to insult other users or call their posts ridiculous, that attitude is not tolerated on Storm2K and you may lose posting privileges without warning while the board is busy. Think twice when you post please, if it's insulting or silly do us all a favor and just don't post. Thanks.

[Happy Pelican]

I'm curious as to how much wind Pinellas County might get. I realize the storm is supposed to make landfall quite a bit north but considering the worst of the system is on the south and east sides, with the amount of rain we are receiving.. Even low end tropical storm force winds would bring down trees fairly easy.

I will tell you having lived on the beaches here for 40 years to expect minimal T.S. winds. I don't care what others here say and I don't care that there isnt T.S. warnings. 40 years of experience with these types of brushes and you kind of know what to expect based on experience.

Couldn't agree more. I'm right on the Jersey coast (about half mile from where the coaster went in the ocean) and regardless of what wind speeds are forecasted, it's always howling here and you can safely bet, will exceed all forecasted speeds.

[ronjon]

And for the record..I think it's just a center relocation to the east and not a true motion....maybe finally becoming vertically stacked?

[psyclone]

Would y'all quit freaking out about the Slight East movement. Aric already told y'all, and prob others, that its likely a cyclonic loop...Sure could it dance all over the place...YES! I think we have a pretty good agreement this is prob not going to hit further south than the big bend of FL and further west than the western panhandle.

Thanks delta. Next thing you know people in Key West will say its going to hit them.

I for one am not freaking out, even though I had 10 inches of rain today that wasn't forecasted for today. I still believe Cedar Key and even more so with the east shift. Pinellas county should at least be under watches.

The track has shifted away from the area. the likelihood of TS winds has decreased from 50% in earlier advisories to 20% with the latest. if something changes It'll go straight to warnings but that looks unlikely. the risk has dropped. dramatically.

[TropicalSailor]

oh no recon looks to be returning.. the new one

Crap. Let's hope not.

Back on track!!!

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010000
AF307 1109A HERMINE HDOB 09 20160831
235000 2804N 08858W 6667 03554 0059 +096 +036 059010 013 /// /// 03
235030 2804N 08856W 6668 03552 0055 +099 +035 040010 011 /// /// 03
235100 2802N 08855W 6667 03554 0054 +095 +037 030012 012 027 000 00
235130 2800N 08854W 6670 03548 0057 +095 +040 038012 012 026 000 03
235200 2758N 08854W 6672 03551 0060 +095 +037 034014 015 /// /// 03
235230 2756N 08856W 6668 03553 0062 +095 +033 039016 017 /// /// 03
235300 2756N 08858W 6668 03556 0062 +095 +032 050017 018 /// /// 03
235330 2758N 08859W 6667 03553 0056 +095 +022 057016 016 027 000 03
235400 2800N 08859W 6670 03553 0062 +095 +033 059014 016 /// /// 03
235430 2801N 08857W 6671 03551 0063 +095 +040 050011 012 /// /// 03
235500 2759N 08855W 6696 03521 0060 +095 +042 044012 012 025 000 03
235530 2757N 08854W 6771 03426 0064 +096 +046 049011 011 026 000 00
235600 2755N 08853W 6794 03393 0069 +097 +062 049011 012 025 000 03
235630 2753N 08851W 6866 03308 0068 +101 +077 041014 015 026 000 03
235700 2751N 08850W 6920 03239 0063 +108 +080 039013 014 026 000 00
235730 2749N 08849W 6938 03226 0062 +112 +061 044011 012 026 000 00
235800 2747N 08847W 6969 03188 0066 +110 +062 046012 012 027 000 00
235830 2744N 08846W 6969 03186 0066 +108 +066 045013 014 028 000 03
235900 2742N 08844W 6967 03183 0069 +106 +069 048014 015 029 000 00
235930 2740N 08843W 6967 03185 0067 +105 +071 049014 015 028 000 00
$$
;

Plane now at 700mb level.

[caneman]

I see someone deleted their post. I find it hard to believe that a 60 to 80 mile swing east is a loop!

Even if it is a movement, there is nothing saying it will sustain that...again, this stuff happens when the lows are trying to stop dancing around each other and stack. It might not have any bearing on landfall.....This is NOT going to hit Tampa or Clear Water Directly.

Ha!! You will not find anywhere that I said or implied it would hit Tampa. I've said Cedar Key all along. So if you're implying -removed-, you're sadly mistaken. Ive been a member of this board for at least 15 years, my account was reset recently and thaTS why it doesn't show cat. 5. So, I take offense to your implication. If I knew you I'd gladly put a steak dinner on the line for Cedar Key or closer than Appalachacila.

[ZX12R]

That sure looks like a pretty big wobble to the east if you ask me if the center is truly under that latest convection blowup:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

That was indeed a monstrous wobble! Sheesh.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like AF turned around. Sorry might stuff must be behind schedule. Didn't see the earlier post that they were back on track.

[TimeZone]

Structure really stretching out. Very elongated. Thats not a shape that will get you RI ...

Maybe it will pull an Ike and undergo RI anyway.

[TropicalSailor]

Looks like AF turned around.

Refresh. They just did a loop.

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't think it would be prudent to advise people in Pinellas to not be prepared for storm conditions. Although there is no watch or warning, there is a large circulation and it is elongated, so there could be high winds in bands farther from the center. Regarding the VDM's being located eastward, it is something that happened. Those folks were making an observation and thinking that maybe they should be more prepared. I don't think there is anything wrong with that.

[stormreader]

Appearance on sat has improved in last couple hours. Looks like it's beginning to develop a core. That would be instrumental in further intensification toward hurricane classification. Also, I would say Hermine is definitely feeling the influence of the trough (thus the E "wobble"). But until we see that combined with a definitive N movement (and I mean definitive), I don't think we can really say that the storm has yet been scooped up by the trough. That's why there is still this feeling of uncertainty among our Fl gulf coast people on this board. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[northjaxpro]

And for the record..I think it's just a center relocation to the east and not a true motion....maybe finally becoming vertically stacked?

Yeah it may be a center relocation. We do not have no eastward trend to the motion yet. We need at least a few hours( at least 3 hours) to see a trend in the forward motion imo. Plus, Recon will confirm any noted east movement if it occurs.