ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wflamholtz]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SP3tHNO73uc


Levi Cowan has a very informative video about the future of Hermine, and I why the center may be appearing to go east.

[ZX12R]

The storm has not yet been picked up by the trough. Should have happened by now. Feel like it's possible the storm could be left lingering for awhile in the SE Gulf. Models don't show it. But if the model forecast is to pan out, Hermine needs to begin a decisive N movement overnight (I think).

How can it be determined if Hermine misses the trough? I mean factually, and with certainty?

[psyclone]

I don't think it would be prudent to advise people in Pinellas to not be prepared for storm conditions. Although there is no watch or warning, there is a large circulation and it is elongated, so there could be high winds in bands farther from the center. Regarding the VDM's being located eastward, it is something that happened. Those folks were making an observation and thinking that maybe they should be more prepared. I don't think there is anything wrong with that.

We have to remember Governor Scott released an executive order this morning regarding 42 counties identified in his State of Emergency declaration... Pinellas and Hillsborough should be on there. I also know the new EM director for Pasco and he is one of the best and would certainly assist neighboring counties any time.

With this said - I will stick to my assertion / prediction this storm will hit much further south - like Tampa or Sarasota directly. If I am wrong then I will happily admit it. All I ask is that those of us with such wild and speculative theories be given at least a little due process before passing judgement. Thanks

How about throwing in some compelling meteorological rationale to back up a suggestion that diverges wildly from the NHC? Those guys are very good at what they do. I have no issue with folks taking exception to the official forecast but if it's hundreds of miles different and has no other support the foundation needs to be built upon facts and logic that other really smart folks somehow failed to take into account. These assertions tend to be lacking such underpinnings.

[northjaxpro]

Well, folks I am going to get the coffee pot all ready for later this evening as we track the progress of Hermine. These next 24 hours or so are going to be extremely interesting that's for sure. It is going to be a long next 24 hours ahead for sure.

[caneman]

I don't think it would be prudent to advise people in Pinellas to not be prepared for storm conditions. Although there is no watch or warning, there is a large circulation and it is elongated, so there could be high winds in bands farther from the center. Regarding the VDM's being located eastward, it is something that happened. Those folks were making an observation and thinking that maybe they should be more prepared. I don't think there is anything wrong with that.

Thanks SouthFlorida. That's exactly right. Further, Ive lived on the extreme western edge of Pinellas for 40 years, near the beach. There is no wind break. You can have all the meteorolgy experience in the world but it doesn't compare to 40 years experience with similar type set ups. It's not uncommon for these brushes to give us T.S. winds.

[BRweather]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SP3tHNO73uc


Levi Cowan has a very informative video about the future of Hermine, and I why the center may be appearing to go east.

This is false information. He said no such thing in the video. Said it is an elongated lobe and the landfall location is still unsure, but it probably will not change much of the impacts

[Dean4Storms]

The 12z ECM Ensembles centered on a landfall over PCB.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010029
AF307 1109A HERMINE HDOB 12 20160901
002000 2614N 08758W 8430 01532 0041 +193 +160 054014 014 021 000 00
002030 2612N 08756W 8430 01532 0043 +190 +154 059011 014 022 000 00
002100 2611N 08755W 8429 01533 0042 +190 +153 060010 012 021 000 00
002130 2609N 08753W 8428 01531 0043 +190 +149 062009 010 021 000 00
002200 2608N 08751W 8431 01529 0040 +190 +152 062009 010 020 000 00
002230 2606N 08750W 8429 01530 0041 +187 +157 064008 009 020 000 00
002300 2605N 08748W 8430 01530 0040 +190 +155 064007 008 020 000 00
002330 2603N 08746W 8444 01515 0038 +190 +156 070007 008 021 000 00
002400 2602N 08745W 8418 01539 0037 +189 +154 077008 008 018 000 03
002430 2600N 08743W 8429 01529 0039 +185 +168 081006 008 020 001 00
002500 2559N 08742W 8430 01528 0036 +186 +176 080007 007 019 001 00
002530 2557N 08741W 8432 01523 //// +180 //// 084007 007 018 001 01
002600 2555N 08740W 8428 01527 0037 +183 +179 065006 007 018 000 00
002630 2553N 08739W 8431 01526 0038 +183 +175 058004 005 016 001 00
002700 2551N 08738W 8429 01528 0037 +188 +160 035007 007 013 001 03
002730 2550N 08737W 8427 01528 0038 +178 +166 033005 007 023 001 01
002800 2548N 08735W 8427 01529 0037 +186 +158 017006 007 022 000 03
002830 2547N 08733W 8433 01521 0038 +183 +161 354006 007 022 000 00
002900 2546N 08731W 8432 01523 0037 +186 +158 023004 006 021 000 00
002930 2546N 08729W 8432 01522 0038 +183 +160 051002 004 020 000 03
$$
;

[JaxGator]

Well, folks I am going to get the coffee pot all ready for later this evening as we track the progress of Hermine. These next 24 hours or so are going to be extremely interesting that's for sure. It is going to be a long next 24 hours ahead for sure.

You said it northjaxpro. Maybe a little unnerving too.

[wflamholtz]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SP3tHNO73uc


Levi Cowan has a very informative video about the future of Hermine, and I why the center may be appearing to go east.

This is false information. He said no such thing in the video. Said it is an elongated lobe and the landfall location is still unsure, but it probably will not change much of the impacts

Wait, I'm a little confused on what you meant about misinformation?

[caneman]

Even if it is a movement, there is nothing saying it will sustain that...again, this stuff happens when the lows are trying to stop dancing around each other and stack. It might not have any bearing on landfall.....This is NOT going to hit Tampa or Clear Water Directly.

Ha!! You will not find anywhere that I said or implied it would hit Tampa. I've said Cedar Key all along. So if you're implying -removed-, you're sadly mistaken. Ive been a member of this board for at least 15 years, my account was reset recently and thaTS why it doesn't show cat. 5. So, I take offense to your implication. If I knew you I'd gladly put a steak dinner on the line for Cedar Key or closer than Appalachacila.

I'm not saying you were saying Tampa at all. Cedar key could be it. Either way, I honestly don't care where it goes. I was making a general statement. Sorry if that offended you. Not my intention.

No worries, I'm not a wish caster. I can tell you that Clearwater Beach would experience t.s. winds before the southern edge of the cone in Tarpon Springs would as we stick out further west.

[tolakram]

With so much model agreement I think it would be unprecedented for all of them to be wrong inside 48 hours. We've had some big short term failures in the past but each time the model consensus was not in good agreement (euro in one direction, GFS in another). With as tight a consensus as there is now I highly doubt there will be any surprises. If you are in the cone you should expect the chance of a direct hit, don't look at the forecast line, it's the cone that is important.

[BRweather]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SP3tHNO73uc


Levi Cowan has a very informative video about the future of Hermine, and I why the center may be appearing to go east.

This is false information. He said no such thing in the video. Said it is an elongated lobe and the landfall location is still unsure, but it probably will not change much of the impacts

Wait, I'm a little confused on what you meant about misinformation?

Were you referring to the relocation of the possible center to the east or the track going to the east more?

[Michele B]

SW Florida could actually be in trouble now.

This is what I am thinking now, too.

I went through Charley, I remember the "wobble" which turned out to be a DECIDED right turn. I'm watching this crazy storm very closely!

[tatertawt24]

Well, folks I am going to get the coffee pot all ready for later this evening as we track the progress of Hermine. These next 24 hours or so are going to be extremely interesting that's for sure. It is going to be a long next 24 hours ahead for sure.

Personally, I would get rest tonight and then pull the all-nighter when it's closer to landfall.

[ronjon]

I like the area eat or just east of Apalachicola.

i definitely see a east shift for 00z given its current location and motion. not tampa east though. cedar key is looking pretty good.

I think with the eastward shift..and just assuming a track parallel to NHCs, the landfall would be Taylor county to cedar key.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

It's starting to flood in Tampa now

[stormreader]

The 12z ECM Ensembles centered on a landfall over PCB.

That has been you're thinking for awhile now, I believe. The storm would eventually be pulled up by the trough, but perhaps not so decisively as earlier model forecasts (thus no hook east in GOM). I'm concerned that the storm might actually be left lingering for sometime in the SE GOM. With a change of course down the line.

[tolakram]

Were you referring to the relocation of the possible center to the east or the track going to the east more?

It's not important, he just referenced the video and why it was appearing to go east. The LLC has barely moved per recon which has been IN the storm.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Did recon head back or stop communications?