ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[scogor]

Rain and lightning been pretty constant here in Sarasota for most of the day.

[wflamholtz]

This is false information. He said no such thing in the video. Said it is an elongated lobe and the landfall location is still unsure, but it probably will not change much of the impacts

Wait, I'm a little confused on what you meant about misinformation?

Were you referring to the relocation of the possible center to the east or the track going to the east more?

He said that embedded in the oval low level center, there's two minima, one on the NW side of the convection, and one consolidating under the MLC hwere the convection is. Actually it looks like the recon just went through the NW one. Anyways, he makes the argument that the eastern one may become dominant, and may end up rotating around the entirety of the oval low level center when it changes tomorrow, which might send that minima in a brief N-NW heading. To say that the entirety of this system is moving E-ENE is false (I apologize if I insinuated that), the overall flow doesn't make sense for that

[northjaxpro]

Well, folks I am going to get the coffee pot all ready for later this evening as we track the progress of Hermine. These next 24 hours or so are going to be extremely interesting that's for sure. It is going to be a long next 24 hours ahead for sure.

Personally, I would get rest tonight and then pull the all-nighter when it's closer to landfall.

Yeah, I thought about Thursday evening possibilities too. I have to be tracking developments carefully like some others until this storm moves on out of here. I will get a few hours rest, but its downhill with no rest for me literally, especially later tomorrow as Hermine hopefully gets on out of the picture by early Friday (HOPEFULLY)

[BRweather]

Wait, I'm a little confused on what you meant about misinformation?

Were you referring to the relocation of the possible center to the east or the track going to the east more?

He said that embedded in the oval low level center, there's two minima, one on the NW side of the convection, and one consolidating under the MLC hwere the convection is. Actually it looks like the recon just went through the NW one. Anyways, he makes the argument that the eastern one may become dominant, and may end up rotating around the entirety of the oval low level center when it changes tomorrow, which might send that minima in a brief N-NW heading. To say that the entirety of this system is moving E-ENE is false (I apologize if I insinuated that), the overall flow doesn't make sense for that

No problem.

[robbielyn]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SP3tHNO73uc


Levi Cowan has a very informative video about the future of Hermine, and I why the center may be appearing to go east.

This is false information. He said no such thing in the video. Said it is an elongated lobe and the landfall location is still unsure, but it probably will not change much of the impacts

he meant why people could think it was going east you misunderstood his statement.

[BRweather]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SP3tHNO73uc


Levi Cowan has a very informative video about the future of Hermine, and I why the center may be appearing to go east.

This is false information. He said no such thing in the video. Said it is an elongated lobe and the landfall location is still unsure, but it probably will not change much of the impacts

he meant why people could think it was going east you misunderstood his statement.

yes my bad. Read too much into the statement. Apology

[Frank2]

NOAA went home AF is on-station now...

[BRweather]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/re ... ERMINE.png

Nice turnaround on the recon. Not a long wait at all

[sponger]

Wait, I'm a little confused on what you meant about misinformation?

Were you referring to the relocation of the possible center to the east or the track going to the east more?

He said that embedded in the oval low level center, there's two minima, one on the NW side of the convection, and one consolidating under the MLC hwere the convection is. Actually it looks like the recon just went through the NW one. Anyways, he makes the argument that the eastern one may become dominant, and may end up rotating around the entirety of the oval low level center when it changes tomorrow, which might send that minima in a brief N-NW heading. To say that the entirety of this system is moving E-ENE is false (I apologize if I insinuated that), the overall flow doesn't make sense for that

The relocation was South East, by a good margin. The question is, what does that do to the track. A 50 mile move south east is not and could not be predicted by the models and could have a change in track. The question is, how much?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010039
AF307 1109A HERMINE HDOB 13 20160901
003000 2545N 08727W 8428 01526 0035 +186 +151 346002 002 022 000 00
003030 2544N 08725W 8429 01525 0034 +190 +149 041001 002 021 000 00
003100 2543N 08723W 8429 01526 0032 +195 +148 059002 002 020 000 00
003130 2542N 08721W 8429 01525 0031 +195 +151 027001 002 020 000 03
003200 2541N 08720W 8429 01523 0028 +196 +150 006001 002 018 000 00
003230 2540N 08718W 8431 01522 0027 +200 +151 352001 002 018 000 00
003300 2538N 08716W 8431 01519 0026 +197 +152 011003 003 019 000 00
003330 2537N 08714W 8429 01523 0024 +198 +152 018005 005 021 000 00
003400 2536N 08712W 8429 01520 0022 +203 +147 007004 005 026 000 00
003430 2535N 08710W 8430 01520 0018 +206 +147 001004 005 028 000 00
003500 2534N 08708W 8426 01523 0016 +210 +144 015004 005 025 000 00
003530 2533N 08706W 8431 01516 0013 +213 +143 053004 005 023 000 00
003600 2532N 08704W 8438 01505 0004 +219 +147 091003 004 023 000 00
003630 2531N 08703W 8429 01508 0001 +218 +155 142005 006 022 000 03
003700 2530N 08701W 8425 01517 0002 +216 +162 130008 009 020 001 03
003730 2528N 08700W 8423 01513 0000 +214 +160 130008 009 016 000 00
003800 2527N 08659W 8432 01501 0001 +207 +164 234008 014 018 001 00
003830 2525N 08659W 8427 01513 0017 +183 +170 249025 030 019 001 03
003900 2524N 08657W 8447 01485 //// +176 //// 241029 030 022 001 01
003930 2523N 08656W 8414 01518 //// +172 //// 239031 034 024 002 01
$$
;

Looking at the heights and missing pressures, looks to be 999mb.

[OntarioEggplant]

1000 MB on the dot

[RL3AO]

First forecast from three days ago. Man the NHC really sucks. Not even close.

[Frank2]

If the recon plots are correct center is 25.5 87.2, so a bit right of last advisory, but it could be a wobble rather than a trend, as happens with many systems. Its the old wobble "I'm changing course" trick that drives many people crazy, only to find two hours later that it was just a wobble...

[kevin mathis]

First forecast from three days ago. Man the NHC really sucks. Not even close.

I'm sure your being facetious....Not too bad....But it hasn't totally finished yet...

[BucMan2]

Aric- I agree with your statement but any shift east puts Tampa closer to the east and south quadrants which is where the nastiest weather would be

[Mouton]

Winds were howling from SW as Charlie was just north of Naples so off it went to the NE. also it was smaller insize as I recall.

What is concerning is a 3mb drop in past few hours along which looks like a tightening. The left side shear is gone. We could see development in line with some models into the 980 area before land fall and a slight eastern turn due to interplay with right side land. A land fall as a cat one or deepening cat two would be devastating in that under developed area.

My comments are mine alone and anyone concerned should take guidance from the NHC and local forecasters not from me a rank amateur.

[Yellow Evan]

31/2345 UTC 25.4N 87.1W T3.0/3.0 HERMINE -- Atlantic

[Hammy]

First forecast from three days ago. Man the NHC really sucks. Not even close.

I'm sure your being facetious....Not too bad....But it hasn't totally finished yet...

I think it's time to 'downgrade' all the models back to where they were in 2012 or so. This is just absurd and the main reason NHC forecasts are so far off.

[RL3AO]

I'm sure your being facetious....Not too bad....But it hasn't totally finished yet...

Of course I am. The mood from the forum today makes it sound like this was forecasted to go to Texas. Besides a little timing error, the track has been nailed on. Intensity is probably gonna be about as good as it gets.


But if you've gone through the pages of posts today, you'd think that the NHC has had a catastrophic track and intensity error.

[tigerz3030]

Well, folks I am going to get the coffee pot all ready for later this evening as we track the progress of Hermine. These next 24 hours or so are going to be extremely interesting that's for sure. It is going to be a long next 24 hours ahead for sure.

Personally, I would get rest tonight and then pull the all-nighter when it's closer to landfall.

Yeah, I thought about Thursday evening possibilities too. I have to be tracking developments carefully like some others until this storm moves on out of here. I will get a few hours rest, but its downhill with no rest for me literally, especially later tomorrow as Hermine hopefully gets on out of the picture by early Friday (HOPEFULLY)

I'm going to pull my all nighter tomorrow night on guard for the family Have a feeling we will get a lot of this storm and it will be wayyyyy worse than Colin.