ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[terrapintransit]

Nothing about this looks weak to me IMO..

latest

[ConvergenceZone]

Winds per recon seemed to have weakened considerably. Seemed like AF and NOAA were in the eye at pretty much the same time.

Even if you are right and say the Winds are down to 100mph, I still think a high end Cat 3 would still be possible before landfall

[GCANE]

Something is effecting outflow on the north and east side.
Looks like it started around 6 hours ago.
Could be from the updraft of convection firing to the north along 26N - not sure.
However, outflow on the south side seems to be improving.

[ronyan]

George Town Airport Sustained 110 mph G 133

[tolakram]

A model of where it's going?? I'm not familiar with the HRRR mesoscale model

Well, I suppose all models are models of where a storm is going. The HRRR is a short term model that is generally something you'd use for "nowcasting," as in "how much more rain am I going to get before the storm is past?" Or, "what's that big band of storms about to do?" You wouldn't use it for determining where a system is going to develop in 7 days. It's high resolution and rapidly refreshed. Hence HRRR

Could someone post a link to the HRRR site in proximity to Matthew? I went to the NOAA HRRR page and was

It's available from WeatherBell, middle column, under the freely available label.

http://models.weatherbell.com/

[dukeblue219]

Winds per recon seemed to have weakened considerably. Seemed like AF and NOAA were in the eye at pretty much the same time.

They're not finding much evidence of winds above 85kts at the surface honestly. The latest dropsonde from the AF mission was in the W eyewall and had a peak gust (well above the surface) of 92kt. Surface wind measurement was 61kt.

It's odd in that the storm *looks* very convective on satellite and is in favorable conditions, but neither the pressure nor the winds seem to have noticed. The NHC may be hard pressed to keep this a cat3 at 11pm unless something changes.....

[butch]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...275 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

[Soonercane]

George Town Airport Sustained 110 mph G 133

Possibly a bogus report... we have a poster in george town and he didn't report anything like that.

[northjaxpro]

Also, all the major bridges will be closed down I am sure in Jax during the storm.

Guarantee it. We close our bridges when winds hit 45 mph. Jax is going to get a pretty good whack Friday night as the storm moves north. Daytona looks for now to be the bullseye. Good luck up there guys!

Yes. Thanks for your well wishes! We are going to really need them I can assure you!

Yeah, they will shut down the bridges most definitely here. I must decide by tomorrow if I am leaving to head inland to get away from here with regards to Matthew, or ride it out here at home.

[ronyan]

George Town Airport Sustained 110 mph G 133

Possibly a bogus report... we have a poster in george town and he didn't report anything like that.

There have been a number of reports similar, and NHC did not downgrade to cat 2. If the poster is in George Town he's getting raked by wind, may not have been able to report it.

[floridasun78]

look Nassau webcam weather going south http://www.portnassauwebcam.com/

[GCANE]

[rolltide]

I think once it separates more from Cuba it will have a better chance to strengthen

[floridasun78]

twc saying that plane report moving more north

[CourierPR]

Some of the recent posts would almost lead one to believe that Matthew is close to becoming an open wave. Folks, this is still one large and dangerous storm and it could still grow stronger. Beware!

[bahamaswx]

George Town Airport Sustained 110 mph G 133

Possibly a bogus report... we have a poster in george town and he didn't report anything like that.

There have been a number of reports similar, and NHC did not downgrade to cat 2. If the poster is in George Town he's getting raked by wind, may not have been able to report it.

I am not in Georgetown; my folks are. They are estimating the winds to be about 100 sustained at the moment.

[WPBWeather]

Some of the recent posts would almost lead one to believe that Matthew is close to becoming an open wave. Folks, this is still one large and dangerous storm and it could still grow stronger. Beware!

Thank you for trying to keep us all on point here. Every thought by everyone with a keypad seems to make it here.

[Soonercane]

Possibly a bogus report... we have a poster in george town and he didn't report anything like that.

There have been a number of reports similar, and NHC did not downgrade to cat 2. If the poster is in George Town he's getting raked by wind, may not have been able to report it.

I am not in Georgetown; my folks are. They are estimating the winds to be about 100 sustained at the moment.

I stand corrected. Thank you for the information.

[bahamaswx]

There have been a number of reports similar, and NHC did not downgrade to cat 2. If the poster is in George Town he's getting raked by wind, may not have been able to report it.

I am not in Georgetown; my folks are. They are estimating the winds to be about 100 sustained at the moment.

I stand corrected. Thank you for the information.

No problem. I should update my information. I moved to the USA many years ago.

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 23:46Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission: Fourth flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this system
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 22:27:31Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°48'N 75°45'W (22.8N 75.75W)
B. Center Fix Location: 169 statute miles (272 km) to the NE (55°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 70kts (~ 80.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the S (190°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 268° at 89kts (From the W at ~ 102.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the S (189°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 963mb (28.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,149m (7,051ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,413m (7,917ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west (center has 50% or more, but less than 100%, of eyewall coverage)
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 107kts (~ 123.1mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ENE (69°) from the flight level center at 21:32:54Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 100kts (~ 115.1mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the N (355°) from the flight level center at 22:31:51Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 175° at 11kts (From the S at 13mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PENETRATION AT 7000 FT RADAR ALTITUDE
SPIRAL BANDING