ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
How good is the HRRR model in the short-term with tropical cyclones?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Even if this monster's center stays offshore, it'll be devastating to coastal areas. But it would at least keep the worst of the storm offshore. At this point that's the best we can hope for.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I think it's to late to look at models now, they are pretty consistent with Matthew......this is going to be UGLY!!!!!!!!!!!! Be prepared and evacuate if you can
Last edited by stormlover2013 on Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
My Prayers are truly with FL and everyone in Matt's path!!! The Models are still extremely important for folks further up the SE coast, and I'm extremely grateful for everyone's posts & input about them!!!
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grazed by many - most wind damage: Hugo (pre-cellphone days!) & most water: Floyd
grazed by many - most wind damage: Hugo (pre-cellphone days!) & most water: Floyd
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
bamajammer4eva wrote:Sav_hurricane_hunter wrote:bamajammer4eva wrote:It's further inland a hair still inland entering Georgia
Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk
Where in Ga? I'm in Savannah, Ga(35 miles from coast)
Looks like it goes along the coast and goes a little offshore around Brunswick
It goes offshore from Brunswick & move up coast of Ga or moves offshore and doesn't effect Savannah or no?
Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:How good is the HRRR model in the short-term with tropical cyclones?
We don't know. It's too new and there haven't been enough recent storms close enough to the US.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
RL3AO wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:How good is the HRRR model in the short-term with tropical cyclones?
We don't know. It's too new and there haven't been enough recent storms close enough to the US.
The HRRR falls apart after 8 hrs, it is a now cast model, but a good one for what it does.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 77.5W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2016 0 24.7N 77.5W 971 66
0000UTC 07.10.2016 12 26.7N 79.2W 969 65
1200UTC 07.10.2016 24 28.9N 80.6W 963 66
0000UTC 08.10.2016 36 30.8N 81.1W 967 57
1200UTC 08.10.2016 48 32.2N 80.6W 977 48
0000UTC 09.10.2016 60 32.5N 78.7W 988 41
1200UTC 09.10.2016 72 32.8N 76.7W 994 49
0000UTC 10.10.2016 84 31.9N 75.0W 997 50
1200UTC 10.10.2016 96 30.6N 74.7W 1002 41
0000UTC 11.10.2016 108 28.3N 76.7W 1004 37
1200UTC 11.10.2016 120 26.1N 79.2W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.10.2016 132 24.9N 81.2W 1004 29
1200UTC 12.10.2016 144 24.7N 81.4W 1004 23
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2016 0 24.7N 77.5W 971 66
0000UTC 07.10.2016 12 26.7N 79.2W 969 65
1200UTC 07.10.2016 24 28.9N 80.6W 963 66
0000UTC 08.10.2016 36 30.8N 81.1W 967 57
1200UTC 08.10.2016 48 32.2N 80.6W 977 48
0000UTC 09.10.2016 60 32.5N 78.7W 988 41
1200UTC 09.10.2016 72 32.8N 76.7W 994 49
0000UTC 10.10.2016 84 31.9N 75.0W 997 50
1200UTC 10.10.2016 96 30.6N 74.7W 1002 41
0000UTC 11.10.2016 108 28.3N 76.7W 1004 37
1200UTC 11.10.2016 120 26.1N 79.2W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.10.2016 132 24.9N 81.2W 1004 29
1200UTC 12.10.2016 144 24.7N 81.4W 1004 23
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
12z GFS loops this again into Florida but if you put Simulated IR Satellite it's basically a sheered, naked swirl by then.
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Irene '99, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Irma '17 (storms I remember my area getting hurricane force winds/gusts).
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and shouldn't be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the experts.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
TimeZone wrote:Even if this monster's center stays offshore, it'll be devastating to coastal areas. But it would at least keep the worst of the storm offshore. At this point that's the best we can hope for.
North of Okeechobee there is still a lot of older construction. Premanufactured stuff that doesn't have reinforced corners and even old trailers build out of stapled 1 by 3! I hope the storm surge estimates aren't as far off as they were with Hermine. 100 plus MPH onshore winds can over wash low barrier islands.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
xironman wrote:RL3AO wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:How good is the HRRR model in the short-term with tropical cyclones?
We don't know. It's too new and there haven't been enough recent storms close enough to the US.
The HRRR falls apart after 8 hrs, it is a now cast model, but a good one for what it does.
I think you mean it can't be trusted after 8 hours? At first I thought you meant it dissipated the storm.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
HRRR run to run trend


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
tolakram wrote:HRRR run to run trend
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/DFj5HLQ.gif[/img]
Times are confusing..15z newest?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:tolakram wrote:HRRR run to run trend
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/DFj5HLQ.gif[/img]
Times are confusing..15z newest?
Yes, 15 is the latest.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:tolakram wrote:HRRR run to run trend
Times are confusing..15z newest?
The HRRR runs hourly. The 15z (11AM EDT) initialization is currently finishing up it appears. So the image was 5 consecutive runs showing the forecast for midnight tonight.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
tolakram wrote:xironman wrote:RL3AO wrote:
We don't know. It's too new and there haven't been enough recent storms close enough to the US.
The HRRR falls apart after 8 hrs, it is a now cast model, but a good one for what it does.
I think you mean it can't be trusted after 8 hours? At first I thought you meant it dissipated the storm.
Yeah, it looses skill. Very short processing time so it is great at three hours but useless at 10.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
xironman wrote:tolakram wrote:xironman wrote:
The HRRR falls apart after 8 hrs, it is a now cast model, but a good one for what it does.
I think you mean it can't be trusted after 8 hours? At first I thought you meant it dissipated the storm.
Yeah, it looses skill. Very short processing time so it is great at three hours but useless at 10.
3 hrs..

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
WPBWeather wrote:bqknight wrote:CalmBeforeStorm wrote:12z GFS just a little east of 6z run in the 18 hour time frame. Every little bit helps those on the coast.
Ends up making landfall about the same place and scooting in near Orlando.
The next Euro and then GFS runs will be critical, to state the obvious.
Except that its really too late in Fl to pay too much attention to model run now. Just a difference in a few miles is huge, and the model could easily be off by that very small amount. Storm will also interact with land and that could make a difference on the exact angle. Too late now for Fl. Wouldn't worry about the model run. It gonna do what's its gonna do, now. Just batten down the hatches. If you're along the central or N Fl coast, its gonna be real bad. That's all you need to know.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I know the high res EURO is pay but if anyone tweets it I would appreciate it posted for the 12 hr timeframe. At ground zero here in Stuart.
Thanks!
Thanks!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:xironman wrote:tolakram wrote:
I think you mean it can't be trusted after 8 hours? At first I thought you meant it dissipated the storm.
Yeah, it looses skill. Very short processing time so it is great at three hours but useless at 10.
3 hrs..radar can forecast 3 hrs.
You are probably right for tropical systems. But with extra-tropical systems you can have convergence zones and deformations that cause weather to pop out of nowhere. Not to mention when thunderstorms break the cap.
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