ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7381 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 06, 2016 10:53 am

How good is the HRRR model in the short-term with tropical cyclones?
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TimeZone

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7382 Postby TimeZone » Thu Oct 06, 2016 10:58 am

Even if this monster's center stays offshore, it'll be devastating to coastal areas. But it would at least keep the worst of the storm offshore. At this point that's the best we can hope for.
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7383 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 10:58 am

I think it's to late to look at models now, they are pretty consistent with Matthew......this is going to be UGLY!!!!!!!!!!!! Be prepared and evacuate if you can
Last edited by stormlover2013 on Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7384 Postby SouthernBreeze » Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:02 am

My Prayers are truly with FL and everyone in Matt's path!!! The Models are still extremely important for folks further up the SE coast, and I'm extremely grateful for everyone's posts & input about them!!!
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7385 Postby Sav_hurricane_hunter » Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:12 am

bamajammer4eva wrote:
Sav_hurricane_hunter wrote:
bamajammer4eva wrote:It's further inland a hair still inland entering Georgia

Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk


Where in Ga? I'm in Savannah, Ga(35 miles from coast)

Looks like it goes along the coast and goes a little offshore around Brunswick

It goes offshore from Brunswick & move up coast of Ga or moves offshore and doesn't effect Savannah or no?


Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7386 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:15 am

TheStormExpert wrote:How good is the HRRR model in the short-term with tropical cyclones?


We don't know. It's too new and there haven't been enough recent storms close enough to the US.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7387 Postby xironman » Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:20 am

RL3AO wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:How good is the HRRR model in the short-term with tropical cyclones?


We don't know. It's too new and there haven't been enough recent storms close enough to the US.


The HRRR falls apart after 8 hrs, it is a now cast model, but a good one for what it does.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7388 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:31 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 77.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2016 0 24.7N 77.5W 971 66
0000UTC 07.10.2016 12 26.7N 79.2W 969 65
1200UTC 07.10.2016 24 28.9N 80.6W 963 66
0000UTC 08.10.2016 36 30.8N 81.1W 967 57
1200UTC 08.10.2016 48 32.2N 80.6W 977 48
0000UTC 09.10.2016 60 32.5N 78.7W 988 41
1200UTC 09.10.2016 72 32.8N 76.7W 994 49
0000UTC 10.10.2016 84 31.9N 75.0W 997 50
1200UTC 10.10.2016 96 30.6N 74.7W 1002 41
0000UTC 11.10.2016 108 28.3N 76.7W 1004 37
1200UTC 11.10.2016 120 26.1N 79.2W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.10.2016 132 24.9N 81.2W 1004 29
1200UTC 12.10.2016 144 24.7N 81.4W 1004 23
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7389 Postby HurricaneEric » Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:39 am

12z GFS loops this again into Florida but if you put Simulated IR Satellite it's basically a sheered, naked swirl by then.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7390 Postby Nimbus » Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:45 am

TimeZone wrote:Even if this monster's center stays offshore, it'll be devastating to coastal areas. But it would at least keep the worst of the storm offshore. At this point that's the best we can hope for.


North of Okeechobee there is still a lot of older construction. Premanufactured stuff that doesn't have reinforced corners and even old trailers build out of stapled 1 by 3! I hope the storm surge estimates aren't as far off as they were with Hermine. 100 plus MPH onshore winds can over wash low barrier islands.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7391 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:49 am

xironman wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:How good is the HRRR model in the short-term with tropical cyclones?


We don't know. It's too new and there haven't been enough recent storms close enough to the US.


The HRRR falls apart after 8 hrs, it is a now cast model, but a good one for what it does.


I think you mean it can't be trusted after 8 hours? At first I thought you meant it dissipated the storm.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7392 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:09 pm

HRRR run to run trend

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7393 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:20 pm

tolakram wrote:HRRR run to run trend

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/DFj5HLQ.gif[/img]


Times are confusing..15z newest?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7394 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:24 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
tolakram wrote:HRRR run to run trend

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/DFj5HLQ.gif[/img]


Times are confusing..15z newest?


Yes, 15 is the latest.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7395 Postby dukeblue219 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:24 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
tolakram wrote:HRRR run to run trend



Times are confusing..15z newest?


The HRRR runs hourly. The 15z (11AM EDT) initialization is currently finishing up it appears. So the image was 5 consecutive runs showing the forecast for midnight tonight.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7396 Postby xironman » Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:25 pm

tolakram wrote:
xironman wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
We don't know. It's too new and there haven't been enough recent storms close enough to the US.


The HRRR falls apart after 8 hrs, it is a now cast model, but a good one for what it does.


I think you mean it can't be trusted after 8 hours? At first I thought you meant it dissipated the storm.


Yeah, it looses skill. Very short processing time so it is great at three hours but useless at 10.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7397 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:28 pm

xironman wrote:
tolakram wrote:
xironman wrote:
The HRRR falls apart after 8 hrs, it is a now cast model, but a good one for what it does.


I think you mean it can't be trusted after 8 hours? At first I thought you meant it dissipated the storm.


Yeah, it looses skill. Very short processing time so it is great at three hours but useless at 10.


3 hrs.. :lol: radar can forecast 3 hrs.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7398 Postby stormreader » Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:29 pm

WPBWeather wrote:
bqknight wrote:
CalmBeforeStorm wrote:12z GFS just a little east of 6z run in the 18 hour time frame. Every little bit helps those on the coast.


Ends up making landfall about the same place and scooting in near Orlando.


The next Euro and then GFS runs will be critical, to state the obvious.

Except that its really too late in Fl to pay too much attention to model run now. Just a difference in a few miles is huge, and the model could easily be off by that very small amount. Storm will also interact with land and that could make a difference on the exact angle. Too late now for Fl. Wouldn't worry about the model run. It gonna do what's its gonna do, now. Just batten down the hatches. If you're along the central or N Fl coast, its gonna be real bad. That's all you need to know.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7399 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:35 pm

I know the high res EURO is pay but if anyone tweets it I would appreciate it posted for the 12 hr timeframe. At ground zero here in Stuart.

Thanks!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7400 Postby xironman » Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:40 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
xironman wrote:
tolakram wrote:
I think you mean it can't be trusted after 8 hours? At first I thought you meant it dissipated the storm.


Yeah, it looses skill. Very short processing time so it is great at three hours but useless at 10.


3 hrs.. :lol: radar can forecast 3 hrs.


You are probably right for tropical systems. But with extra-tropical systems you can have convergence zones and deformations that cause weather to pop out of nowhere. Not to mention when thunderstorms break the cap.
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