ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7401 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:10 am

Several flight level readings of 63kts an 65kts coming in from Recon as they enter the SE quad.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7402 Postby STRiZZY » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:12 am

JKingTampa wrote:On the last few Tampa Bay radar frames, looks like banding could be coming back.



Noticed that as well.. 11.5 inches of rain today in Largo,FL.. (by 8pm) Possibly made it to 1' by midnight..
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7403 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:15 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:Several flight level readings of 63kts an 65kts coming in from Recon as they enter the SE quad.

yeah.. also looking at the wind field center could be reforming yet again..
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7404 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:20 am

The convection is heading due E. But the CoC is due north.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Recon

#7405 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:22 am

Through 2:17am EDT:

Image
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7406 Postby cdavis6287 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:23 am

FLLurker32 wrote:
cdavis6287 wrote:
JKingTampa wrote:
Basically anyone from Sarasota to Destin. Haha.

Haha..Perry Fl to Cedar Key,Fl. There's always one folks!


Let's try to NOT wish cast Cedar Key :eek: lol I'm in Marion county. While I know I'm going to get a little something being on the east side of it, I don't want to be THAT close.

Not trying trying to "wish cast" you, but there is a possibility you guys might get a hurricane. I live in St Augustine area and lived by you so I know what that would mean as far as surge and damage. I hope not or weak! God bless!
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7407 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:28 am

considering the difference in FL vs. SFMR 55 to 60kt its reasonable. more 55kts...
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7408 Postby FLLurker32 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:33 am

A lot of 60-64 kts being found.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7409 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:42 am

FLLurker32 wrote:A lot of 60-64 kts being found.

but sfmr is half that.. they will likely maintain current intensity. maybe up it 5mph. no way they go 70mph given the structure.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7410 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:46 am

looks like a lop sided cat 2 landfall baroclynically enhanced ...
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7411 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:48 am

looks like 50 kts to me, with a large area of 40-50 kt winds.

This could cause a very large tidal surge in the Apalachee Bay
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7412 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:52 am

Alyono wrote:looks like 50 kts to me, with a large area of 40-50 kt winds.

This could cause a very large tidal surge in the Apalachee Bay


40kt ? no 50kt sure... hurricane no... 6 more hours given trends.. maybe 70kt ...12z tomorrow 75kt and still behind the track forecast.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7413 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:55 am

Also to note per recon.. motion is very much NE not NNE...big bend, cedar key, very much more likely. between 6 and 12z friday.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7414 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:56 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Alyono wrote:looks like 50 kts to me, with a large area of 40-50 kt winds.

This could cause a very large tidal surge in the Apalachee Bay


40kt ? no 50kt sure... hurricane no... 6 more hours given trends.. maybe 70kt ...12z tomorrow 75kt and still behind the track forecast.


It's currently 50 kts. Should easily be a cane at landfall
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7415 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:59 am

Alyono wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Alyono wrote:looks like 50 kts to me, with a large area of 40-50 kt winds.

This could cause a very large tidal surge in the Apalachee Bay


40kt ? no 50kt sure... hurricane no... 6 more hours given trends.. maybe 70kt ...12z tomorrow 75kt and still behind the track forecast.


It's currently 50 kts. Should easily be a cane at landfall


agreed.. I was talking being progressive. 70 to 75kts landfall likely though just early to midday friday is all.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7416 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:07 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Alyono wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
40kt ? no 50kt sure... hurricane no... 6 more hours given trends.. maybe 70kt ...12z tomorrow 75kt and still behind the track forecast.


It's currently 50 kts. Should easily be a cane at landfall


agreed.. I was talking being progressive. 70 to 75kts landfall likely though just early to midday friday is all.


This will accelerate quite a bit today. Should be inland in about 24 hours, between 6 and 9Z
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7417 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:09 am

Alyono wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Alyono wrote:
It's currently 50 kts. Should easily be a cane at landfall


agreed.. I was talking being progressive. 70 to 75kts landfall likely though just early to midday friday is all.


This will accelerate quite a bit today. Should be inland in about 24 hours, between 6 and 9Z


that is up for debate.. it has been slower every step of the way. and still is every model run and advisory. it will have to hit 16kts + to landfall in 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7418 Postby Frank2 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:11 am

The shear is still moderate from the SW: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
Last edited by Frank2 on Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7419 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:12 am

that and just now per recon pressure down 996mb ...key note... very little movement. more relocations. you must realize each reformation and stall will delay landfall. 12z friday is very likely near cedar key. or just north.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7420 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:21 am

it needs to accelerate or reform .. to achieve roughly 16mi/hr to landfall by your time.. and its no where near close to that or on the right trajectory at the moment.. every hour it does not maintain a NNE to NE motion prolongs its time over water,,,
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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