ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Wobbles make a difference when it gets this close.

[GCANE]

Sitting pretty much right on the Loop Current and getting a 4000 CAPE infeed on its east side from a very unstable air mass being sucked in from its SE.

http://www.wavcis.lsu.edu/forecasts/for ... c=currents

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/re ... ERMINE.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... 2728858340

[ronjon]

outflow expanding to the NW quad. This should be a hurricane in a few hours

I noticed both GFDL and HWRF bringing Hermine down to the upper 960s lower 970s mb range at LF. Perhaps they're right. This system getting a baroclinic boost from the sharpening trough?

[GCANE]

Most impressive thing IMO is that Hermine is actually moving away from that buoy but the pressure keeps dropping.

Exactly.

I know RI is subjective, but one criteria, if I remember correctly, is a drop of 25 mb in 24 hrs or roughly 1 mb per hr.
Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

It is 42 mb for 24 hours, not 25. 1.75mb per hour

Thanks Alyono

[Slughitter3]

WSPD GUST WVHT
09 01 4:50 am S 42.7 52.4 17.7 -
09 01 3:50 am S 36.9 48.6 16.7 -
09 01 2:50 am SSE 36.9 50.5 15.7 -
09 01 1:50 am SSE 36.9 46.6 14.1 -
09 01 12:50 am S 33.0 40.8 14.4 -

Some crazy readings from the buoy just to the SE of the center. Here's the position of the buoy. 26.007N 85.648W

Link for the buoy's data page: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Very impressive.

[txwatcher91]

outflow expanding to the NW quad. This should be a hurricane in a few hours

I agree. If the HRRR is to be believed this could be near 980mb at landfall and the Apalachee Bay would be in the right front quadrant if the HRRR is accurate. Has landfall later tonight around midnight.

[ronjon]

Sadly looks like Florida's hurricane drought will end early tomorrow morning.

[txwatcher91]

Now down to 993mb on most recent pass by recon and center moved N or slightly NNW from previous fix. Looks like it is either wobbling this direction or maybe starting a new movement (some models turn it due N today).

LOL...wobble watching has commenced!

Wobbles matter a lot when a system is close to landfall It can mean the difference between a town being in the right front quad or on the weaker western side with offshore winds. I hope everyone is prepared for a hurricane because Hermine is making a run for it.

[NDG]

Buoy now reporting 19 ft waves!

Code: Select all

Conditions at 42003 as of
(5:50 am CDT)
1050 GMT on 09/01/2016:
Unit of Measure:    Time Zone:    Select
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction   Wind Direction (WDIR):   SSW ( 200 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed   Wind Speed (WSPD):   40.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust   Wind Gust (GST):   50.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height   Wave Height (WVHT):   19.4 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period   Dominant Wave Period (DPD):   10 sec
5-day plot - Average Period   Average Period (APD):   7.5 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction   Mean Wave Direction (MWD):   SSW ( 210 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure   Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):   29.57 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency   Pressure Tendency (PTDY):   -0.03 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature   Air Temperature (ATMP):   78.1 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature   Water Temperature (WTMP):   85.1 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point   Dew Point (DEWP):   76.5 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index   Heat Index (HEAT):   80.8 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters   Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M):   42.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters   Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M):   46.6 kts

[xcool22]

hurricane season not over yet just beginning

[NDG]

Here's the latest VDM

URNT12 KWBC 011115
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092016
A. 01/11:00:08Z
B. 26 deg 55 min N
086 deg 15 min W
C. 850 mb 1378 m
D. 53 kt
E. 107 deg 40 nm
F. 182 deg 71 kt
G. 103 deg 53 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 19 C / 1533 m
J. 22 C / 1551 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA3 1209A HERMINE OB 32
PARTIAL INNER EYEWALL MORE CIRCULAR 18 NM DIA OPEN W
STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING EAST SEMICIRCLE
MAX FL WIND 71 KT 103 / 53 NM 10:44:14Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 080 / 18 KTS

[GCANE]

Interesting feature on 37 GHz 2hrs ago.
Usually, a donut is a sign of RI.
Wish that pass would have captured more of it.
The next 37 GHz image will tell us more.

[deltadog03]

Looks like its tugging NNE at the moment. Notice how the deep convection is not moving as much east. Recon shows a storm trying to accelerate a bit and today will be the day for sure to see if we can get this to a cane. I think its very likely it will be at landfall. Still thinking Apalachicola. (or just east of there)

[caneman]

That means it's moved .4 point east and only .1 north since 5 am. That is a ENE motion.

[NotoSans]

VDM from recon suggests that an eyewall is beginning to form, with the central pressure down to 991-992 mb. I would expect Hermine to become a hurricane within the next few hours given the current trend.

[northjaxpro]

Latest Recon report now suggesting the inner core becoming.more defined and they areniw reporting the northwest eyewall being partially open to rhe northwest.

Hermine really undergoing a nice intensification this morning.

[northjaxpro]

Latest Recon report now suggesting the inner core becoming.more defined and they areniw reporting the northwest eyewall being partially open to rhe northwest.

Hermine really undergoing a nice intensification this morning.

[northjaxpro]

Based on that latest report, we may have a hurricane now. It is right on the threshold right now for sure.

[tigerz3030]

Based on that latest report, we may have a hurricane now. It is right on the threshold right now for sure.

Good morning NJaxPro. It's looking to me like cedar key or just north for landfall which means that brings St Augustine really back into play. Do you agree?

[caneman]

No one has talked about the WNW movement the last couple hours. Temporary? Thoughts?