ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormreader]

Unexpected jog west before landfall. Broward County. 145 mph 27.6 inches (don't feel comfortable with millibars).

[Bailey1777]

Boca Raton 130mph

[Nimbus]

Last Updated: 10/5/2016, 11:00:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time)

Location: 23.4N 76.4W
Movement: NW at 10 mph
Wind: 115 MPH
Pressure: 961 MB

Storm Maps
Storm Details
WunderPhotos (0)

Select a report to view:

Coordinates
Wind Probabilities
Discussions
Marine Advisory
Public Advisory

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft
showed lower winds in Matthew than seen during the previous
mission, with peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 103 kt and estimates
near 95 kt from the SFMR instrument. Based on these, the initial
intensity is reduced to 100 kt. However, satellite imagery
indicates that the hurricane is becoming better organized, with the
eye trying to re-appear and cooling cloud tops near the center. In
addition, the eye has contracted to 15 N mi wide and the central
pressure has fallen to 961 mb. This suggests that the winds are
about to increase.

The initial motion is 320/9. There is little change to the
synoptic reasoning or the forecast track through 48 hours. Matthew
is expected to move around the western side of the subtropical
ridge, which should move slowly eastward during the next couple of
days. This evolution should steer Matthew generally northwestward
for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest. This forecast track takes the center near Andros
Island and New Providence in about 12 hours, and then very near the
eastern coast of the the Florida Peninsula. This part of the
forecast track is west of the various consensus models, but it lies
near the GFS, ECMWF, and ECMWF ensemble mean. From 48-72 hours, the
cyclone is expected to recurve northeastward along the southern edge
of the mid-latitude westerlies. After 72 hours, the track guidance
become very divergent, with solutions ranging from a continued
eastward motion out to sea to a turn back to the southwest. The new
forecast track shows a slow southeastward motion during this time
in best agreement with the ECMWF.

As mentioned above, Matthew is getting better organized, and during
the next 36 hours or so it should be moving through an area of
light vertical wind shear. This should allow strengthening, and
the new intensity forecast calls for the system to reach an
intensity near 115 kt in about 36 hours. This is near the upper
end of the intensity guidance. After 36 hours, proximity to land
and increasing shear should cause weakening, and the cyclone is now
expected to be down to tropical storm strength by 120 hours.
Overall, the intensity forecast is in best agrement with the SHIPS
model.

Key messages:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas. Please
consult statements from the meteorological service and other
government officials in that country.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida.
However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-
force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area in northern Florida and
Georgia.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South
Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if
the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine
what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next
week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are
likely along much of the U.S. East Coast during the next several
days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing potential storm surge
flooding maps, and prototype storm surge watch/warning graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the potential storm surge
flooding map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the flooding map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.

Forecast positions and Max winds

Init 06/0300z 23.4n 76.4w 100 kt 115 mph
12h 06/1200z 24.6n 77.6w 105 kt 120 mph
24h 07/0000z 26.4n 79.2w 115 kt 130 mph
36h 07/1200z 28.2n 80.4w 115 kt 130 mph
48h 08/0000z 30.1n 81.0w 110 kt 125 mph
72h 09/0000z 32.5n 78.5w 90 kt 105 mph
96h 10/0000z 32.0n 75.5w 70 kt 80 mph
120h 11/0000z 30.5n 73.5w 55 kt 65 mph

$$
forecaster Beven

[Michele B]

I'm in central Seminole County, just NW of Brevard. I'm probably 50ish miles inland...less probably. I've made the preparations I can. I'm terrified.

My thoughts are with my fellow Floridians.

Please don't be frightened. If you've boarded up, if your house is stout and solid, then you can ride it out. Just be aware of what is going outside. Have flashlights in case it's night and electric goes out, so you can investigate things that go "bump" in the night - BUT DO NOT GO OUTSIDE DURING THE STORM!

If a window breaks, or roof starts to go, move yourself to a safe place - inside room, with no windows. Have blankets or, pillows (mattress is better) to cover yourself and protect from flying debris. Battery powered radio to monitor when the storm has passed.

Mainly, keep your head, stay put and wait until the worst is over. Just make sure you dont ' mistake the lull of the eye with "the storm is past," and go out too soon.

Lots of scary noises, and the wind howls, but just sit tight. It DOES end!

You'll be all right. Lots of others going through what you are too, and many are also scared.

You will be all right! Praying for you now.

Floridagal, meant to add, IF you have not filled your bathtub with water, it is a safe place to go if you are very afraid of the house coming apart during the worst of it - WITH the mattress covering you from flying debris.

[Steve]

Could be deceiving but I see almost a wnw motion over the nw motion forecast. We shall see at 11

Yes, I see that too but maybe a wobble and not a trend. Still not good to see.

Seems to be a wobble on the general NW path. Look at last 4 frames (2 hours still moving NW)

Close to it, but if you plot on a flat map where it crossed Cuba, it's a little west of true NW or if technically not quite, it's trending that bend at the moment.

[Nate-Gillson]

Boca Raton 130mph

Sustained or gust?

[Ken711]

Last Updated: 10/5/2016, 11:00:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time)

Location: 23.4N 76.4W
Movement: NW at 10 mph
Wind: 115 MPH
Pressure: 961 MB

Storm Maps
Storm Details
WunderPhotos (0)

Select a report to view:

Coordinates
Wind Probabilities
Discussions
Marine Advisory
Public Advisory

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft
showed lower winds in Matthew than seen during the previous
mission, with peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 103 kt and estimates
near 95 kt from the SFMR instrument. Based on these, the initial
intensity is reduced to 100 kt. However, satellite imagery
indicates that the hurricane is becoming better organized, with the
eye trying to re-appear and cooling cloud tops near the center. In
addition, the eye has contracted to 15 N mi wide and the central
pressure has fallen to 961 mb. This suggests that the winds are
about to increase.

The initial motion is 320/9. There is little change to the
synoptic reasoning or the forecast track through 48 hours. Matthew
is expected to move around the western side of the subtropical
ridge, which should move slowly eastward during the next couple of
days. This evolution should steer Matthew generally northwestward
for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest. This forecast track takes the center near Andros
Island and New Providence in about 12 hours, and then very near the
eastern coast of the the Florida Peninsula. This part of the
forecast track is west of the various consensus models, but it lies
near the GFS, ECMWF, and ECMWF ensemble mean. From 48-72 hours, the
cyclone is expected to recurve northeastward along the southern edge
of the mid-latitude westerlies. After 72 hours, the track guidance
become very divergent, with solutions ranging from a continued
eastward motion out to sea to a turn back to the southwest. The new
forecast track shows a slow southeastward motion during this time
in best agreement with the ECMWF.

As mentioned above, Matthew is getting better organized, and during
the next 36 hours or so it should be moving through an area of
light vertical wind shear. This should allow strengthening, and
the new intensity forecast calls for the system to reach an
intensity near 115 kt in about 36 hours. This is near the upper
end of the intensity guidance. After 36 hours, proximity to land
and increasing shear should cause weakening, and the cyclone is now
expected to be down to tropical storm strength by 120 hours.
Overall, the intensity forecast is in best agrement with the SHIPS
model.

Key messages:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas. Please
consult statements from the meteorological service and other
government officials in that country.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida.
However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-
force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area in northern Florida and
Georgia.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South
Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if
the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine
what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next
week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are
likely along much of the U.S. East Coast during the next several
days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing potential storm surge
flooding maps, and prototype storm surge watch/warning graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the potential storm surge
flooding map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the flooding map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.

Forecast positions and Max winds

Init 06/0300z 23.4n 76.4w 100 kt 115 mph
12h 06/1200z 24.6n 77.6w 105 kt 120 mph
24h 07/0000z 26.4n 79.2w 115 kt 130 mph
36h 07/1200z 28.2n 80.4w 115 kt 130 mph
48h 08/0000z 30.1n 81.0w 110 kt 125 mph
72h 09/0000z 32.5n 78.5w 90 kt 105 mph
96h 10/0000z 32.0n 75.5w 70 kt 80 mph
120h 11/0000z 30.5n 73.5w 55 kt 65 mph

$$
forecaster Beven

The new forecast track shows a slow southeastward motion during this time
in best agreement with the ECMWF.

The NHC also weakens Matthew to a tropical storm at 120 hr.

[Blown Away]

Matthew.... back at it again...

http://i67.tinypic.com/1zy9ctv.gif

Looks like the HP given Matt a push, the east side flattening out...

[WeatherOrKnot]

Sorry guys, I was frazzled. I meant to say I'm evacuating from MY mobile home TO my grandmothers.

[dukeblue219]

My guess? I'll go with landfall at Cape Canaveral, 959mb, 125mph winds. I think it'll be stronger in the interim, but Cat 5's at landfall are rare for good reason.

[ROCK]

Need recon in there. More a now cast than model watching ....got a feeling they are going to find a stronger Mathew

['CaneFreak]

Miami Dade County 155 mph sustained 930 MB

As angular momentum increases so does the resistance to the north turn

[O Town]

Matthew.... back at it again...

http://i67.tinypic.com/1zy9ctv.gif

Looks like the HP given Matt a push, the east side flattening out...

I agree.

[AutoPenalti]

Matthew.... back at it again...

http://i67.tinypic.com/1zy9ctv.gif

Looks like the HP given Matt a push, the east side flattening out...

Possible west shift again?

[dukeblue219]

Need recon in there. More a now cast than model watching ....got a feeling they are going to find a stronger Mathew

AF is in the storm right now. They'll be making their third pass in around 20 minutes.

[stephen23]

Need recon in there. More a now cast than model watching ....got a feeling they are going to find a stronger Mathew

They are there

[galaxy401]

Need recon in there. More a now cast than model watching ....got a feeling they are going to find a stronger Mathew

Yeah recon is there though no one is posting in the recon thread for some reason.

[got ants?]

One thing I forgot to add to my prediction. Its based on a wobble to the south, which would align with the GFS. It seems if there is a jog, GFS has it nailed. No jog, NHC has it.

Andrew was supposed to hit me dead on the nose (Hollywood) but in the middle of the night, made a jog, and beelined inland 50 miles south of me.

I'm not expecting a direct hit, but the house is boarded, and we are set to ride out whatever comes our way...or not.

My prayers are with my brethren north of me, and especially our friends and family in the Bahamas.

[DelrayMorris]

Sorry guys, I was frazzled. I meant to say I'm evacuating from MY mobile home TO my grandmothers.

Thank goodness!!

[got ants?]

Matthew.... back at it again...

http://i67.tinypic.com/1zy9ctv.gif

Looks like the HP given Matt a push, the east side flattening out...

Possible west shift again?

Looks like a steady NW track to me? But it looks like the outflow towards the NW is starting to improve.