ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[OuterBanker]

When I went to bed last night it was forecast up the middle of the state. Now it's back to along the coast. In fact latest models have it right over the outer banks.
But, I'm not worried. Wxman several days ago said that it wasn't going to be a Carolina problem.
Wxman I'm gonna hold you to that.

[MississippiWx]

Will be interesting to see if the HH actually find strong winds in the NW quadrant this round now that there is an impressive area of convection there.

[cdavis6287]

I think,especially in the short term, your going to see more of a North direction. Especially as the storms try to wrap around and tug on it a bit.

Agreed.

Don't agree. It may appear its moving north but that is just the storm consolidating. No actual north movement by the storm. Given the players to the nirth, this storm is going to pick up speed and continue NE to ENE.

[deltadog03]

You can disagree. That's fine. I'm saying last few passes showed this last recon mission plus the Vis images show that it's moving generally northward. Recon will tell us soon.

[tolakram]

Recon will tell us when it arrives in an hour or so. Usually in these types of situations I think we see stair stepping movement don't we?

[MississippiWx]

I think,especially in the short term, your going to see more of a North direction. Especially as the storms try to wrap around and tug on it a bit.

Agreed.

Don't agree. It may appear its moving north but that is just the storm consolidating. No actual north movement by the storm. Given the players to the nirth, this storm is going to pick up speed and continue NE to ENE.

Recon will let us know what it's doing. At the last center fix, Hermine was on a more northerly motion, but that was more than likely due to organizational processes. So, short term, a more northerly component is likely.

[GCANE]

Cu Nims making a nice wrap around the center.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... lor=yellow

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm starting to think people in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic regions are not aware that this could be a real threat up their way

[otterlyspicey]

Although Hermine won't be a major hurricane, I feel the combination of Cat 1 winds with the INSANE levels of rain they've had in the area and add in the surge likelihood... the effects may uniquely magnify in that area because of how prone they are geographically and also meteorologically from recent weather. So I'd say the damage/effects seen could be on par with a high Cat 2. Obviously there's nothing to say this is true...just my overthinking mindset atm.

[terstorm1012]

I think we'd have a pretty serious hurricane on our hands if this had wrapped up earlier in the week.

Will note the HRRR keeps forecasting that the storm will organize today and tonight---we'll see.
I'm most interested in whether it stalls out Sunday--and where that happens. We do need the rain up here, but not that much rain all at once.

[Javlin]

You can disagree. That's fine. I'm saying last few passes showed this last recon mission plus the Vis images show that it's moving generally northward. Recon will tell us soon.

I agree in the the short term cloud pattern is due N yesterday was pointing NE

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir4.html

[ronjon]

Can almost make out the center on TPA long range RAD. Nasty squall bands just offshore Pinellas Beach - advancing steadily toward shore. I'd expect TS conditions along the Fl west coast by this afternoon.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes

[BRweather]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-87&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

It is starting to wrap up.

I'd say a hurricane is just about definite before landfall

[caneman]

Can almost make out the center on TPA long range RAD. Nasty squall bands just offshore Pinellas Beach - advancing steadily toward shore. I'd expect TS conditions along the Fl west coast by this afternoon.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes

I'm along the pinellas beaches, winds are picking up with light drizzle.

[cdavis6287]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-87&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

It is starting to wrap up.

I'd say a hurricane is just about definite before landfall

I'd say there's a good chance in the next couple of hours its a hurricane.

[sponger]

Looking quuite healthy this morning. Could see 80-85 by landfall. Won't make a huge difference at center but the expanding wind field is going to cause all sorts of problems to the right of the storm. Tallahasse has a lot of old growth trees so they better hope to goes to the right of them.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Here is a link to schedules of high/low tide Apalachicola, Apalachicola Bay, Florida

http://tides.mobilegeographics.com/locations/193.html

Luckily in a new moon phase

[Steve]

Can almost make out the center on TPA long range RAD. Nasty squall bands just offshore Pinellas Beach - advancing steadily toward shore. I'd expect TS conditions along the Fl west coast by this afternoon.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes

I'm along the pinellas beaches, winds are picking up with light drizzle.

Based on that radar loop, it looks like it would come in to the SW of Tally if it stays on its current trajectory. That's more or less Tate's Hell/Apalachicola Forests or between Port St. Joe/Cape San Blas and maybe Sopchoppy/Panacea/Alligator Pointe.

[CaliforniaResident]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-87&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

It is starting to wrap up.

I'd say a hurricane is just about definite before landfall

I'd say there's a good chance in the next couple of hours its a hurricane.

It might barely muster minimal cat 1 just to break that nearly 11 year hurricane-free streak in Florida.

[BRweather]

A positive note, this is looking more and more like a quick hitter. Forward speed looks to be increasing