ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronjon]

Another buoy west of Sarasota - winds 25 kts gusting to 33 kts.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42013

[Extratropical94]

143430 2716N 08602W 8431 01423 9915 +193 +188 202007 010 020 000 03
latest recon obs 8 down to 991.5

do you have a direct link to the recon data?

I am quite interested in tracking the pressure readings in "real-time" if its available to the public.

Thanks in advance

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml

[artist]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php it is the airforce plane out there right now. Also tropicaltidbits.com or tropicalatlantic.com are good places to see it as it comes in with mapping and translation of the readings. You will have to hit refresh every few minutes wih the nhc to see each new obs.

143430 2716N 08602W 8431 01423 9915 +193 +188 202007 010 020 000 03
latest recon obs 8 down to 991.5

do you have a direct link to the recon data?

I am quite interested in tracking the pressure readings in "real-time" if its available to the public.

Thanks in advance

[Aric Dunn]

991mb

I think its has moved a good amount and generally northward since last recon

19 nm since 11:15Z its now 14:45Z so 19 miles in 3 hours

little over 6 mph

[Weatherhorse]

Will be updating from SW Gainesville. Based on the latest JAX NWS briefing we're supposed to have 40-50mph sustained for 7-10 hrs, with onset about midnight. IF the track doesn't shift S or E

I'm really glad to hear someone will be posting from around here. I'm in north Marion county and work in Gville. (Long time lurker, first time posting-really enjoy this forum ).

[tropicwatch]

991mb

I think its has moved a good amount and generally northward since last recon

Looking at visible, it is quite clear the eye is headed northerly towards pcb area.

It will be a close shave but I think she will go in east of us between Port St. Joe and Carabelle.

[artist]

55 kts sfmr

[Evil Jeremy]

991mb

I think its has moved a good amount and generally northward since last recon

19 nm since 11:15Z its now 14:45Z so 19 miles in 3 hours

little over 6 mph

Are you still thinking this will nudge a bit more east before landfall? Also, still flying in?

[Aric Dunn]

08545W 8424 01470 //// +178 //// 234061 064 055 003 01
144130 2659N 08544W 8430 01470 9981 +174 +156 229067 069 050 002 00
144200 2658N 08542W 8431 01473 9987 +172 +158 228067 068 047 001 00
144230 2657N 08541W 8429 01481 9991 +173 +164 225063 067 046 001 00


plenty of hurricane force winds at fl.. they will likely do a blend and make it 70mph for 11am

[deltadog03]

991mb

I think its has moved a good amount and generally northward since last recon

19 nm since 11:15Z its now 14:45Z so 19 miles in 3 hours

little over 6 mph

Makes sense. I think the forward speed picks up from here on out

[Evil Jeremy]

55 kts sfmr

And several 67, 67, and 69 knot observations from flight level. Enough to justify increasing this to 70mph now?

[ronjon]

Rain bands making steady progress toward the coast. Pinellas coast will likely see them first. I'd expect at least tropical storm force gusts once they do.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TBW&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

I think its has moved a good amount and generally northward since last recon

19 nm since 11:15Z its now 14:45Z so 19 miles in 3 hours

little over 6 mph

Are you still thinking this will nudge a bit more east before landfall? Also, still flying in?

I think it will be inner core wobbles at this point strair stepping I think slightly farther east stiil between horseshoe beach and delka beach

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Is the body of this storm offshore Saint Pete move into the area or is just going to go north?

[Dean4Storms]

That fix was right on the NHC forecast track! Great job!

[RL3AO]

Really looking better this morning. This might get to 75 or 80 knots after all.

[NDG]

VDM

991 mb

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/771359619541327872

[Aric Dunn]

I think its has moved a good amount and generally northward since last recon

19 nm since 11:15Z its now 14:45Z so 19 miles in 3 hours

little over 6 mph

Makes sense. I think the forward speed picks up from here on out

it has definitely slowed down. but thats do to inner core dynamics ( loops loops and more loops).

[SouthDadeFish]

I think recon's findings support maintaining the intensity at 55 knots. The flight level winds are approximately 70 kt, but with a 20% reduction you get about 55 knots.