ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronyan]

ok im back.. what did I miss ?

You probably saw it but he is down to 954mb.

[Sanibel]

Solid NW eyewall on Miami Long Range radar.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Friday
Hurricane conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 85. West southwest wind 95 to 115 mph becoming west southwest 70 to 90 mph. Winds could gust as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.


This is at the NASA Shuttle Landing faculty in Brevard County on the Barrier Island

[1900hurricane]

may be leveling off based upon satellite imagery. Had a quick burst of intensification, but now looks to be steady state. Eye not quite as well defined and cloud tops slightly warmer. May be temporary though

Eye appears to be open to the NW again per radar?

Looks solid to me.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/783907056017215488

[jenmrk]

We are scheduled to travel to The Mayo Clinic on Sunday from Pensacola, can anyone that is in the area tell me what plan is for 1-10. I am a bit worried about getting stuck in returning traffic or worse yet not being allowed in. I know when we were hit with Ivan they shut parts of the interstate down for first responders and power workers due to safety concerns to our area for a while. We are just in limbo right now. My prayers go out to those of you in the path of this storm.

[ConvergenceZone]

I wonder if they will go up to 120mph on this next update?

[Steve]

may be leveling off based upon satellite imagery. Had a quick burst of intensification, but now looks to be steady state. Eye not quite as well defined and cloud tops slightly warmer. May be temporary though

Complete lack of banding and seems to be having ventilation problems. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see this just maintain present structure all the way into Florida. I remember the NHC predicting Fran would intensify to Cat 4 as it made its approach on a similar heading. Gulf Stream effect is way overhyped because of Hugo.

I think it's more likely to fluctuate. GFDL (which isn't my favorite model) drops it hard over the next 6 hours then rises/falls/etc. Some other models have similar fluctuations. It's all probably mostly shorter term up til landfall which could mean a big difference between what potentially landfalls. European is running now. I only have low res, but we'll see what it says. I'm guessing 940ish after what other landfalling models have shown if it indeed landfalls.

[sponger]

We are scheduled to travel to The Mayo Clinic on Sunday from Pensacola, can anyone that is in the area tell me what plan is for 1-10. I am a bit worried about getting stuck in returning traffic or worse yet not being allowed in. I know when we were hit with Ivan they shut parts of the interstate down for first responders and power workers due to safety concerns to our area for a while. We are just in limbo right now. My prayers go out to those of you in the path of this storm.

Should be fine except for perhaps heavier than usual traffic. Mayo is on the West side of intra coastal so even if beach is closed, you can get in.

[crm6360]

may be leveling off based upon satellite imagery. Had a quick burst of intensification, but now looks to be steady state. Eye not quite as well defined and cloud tops slightly warmer. May be temporary though

Complete lack of banding and seems to be having ventilation problems. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see this just maintain present structure all the way into Florida. I remember the NHC predicting Fran would intensify to Cat 4 as it made its approach on a similar heading. Gulf Stream effect is way overhyped because of Hugo.

Andrew had very little banding on satellite. It intensified just fine

thats true but Andrew had a better outflow appearance on IR. Can't put my finger on it but it just seems like it's still dealing with internal structural issues and we're not seeing any well-defined outflow cirrus canopy. Proximity to Cuba might still be an issue?

[ConvergenceZone]

Complete lack of banding and seems to be having ventilation problems. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see this just maintain present structure all the way into Florida. I remember the NHC predicting Fran would intensify to Cat 4 as it made its approach on a similar heading. Gulf Stream effect is way overhyped because of Hugo.

Andrew had very little banding on satellite. It intensified just fine

thats true but Andrew had a better outflow appearance on IR. Can't put my finger on it but it just seems like it's still dealing with internal structural issues and we're not seeing any well-defined outflow cirrus canopy. Proximity to Cuba might still be an issue?

However pressure is falling and wind increases usually follow

[Aric Dunn]

ok im back.. what did I miss ?

You probably saw it but he is down to 954mb.

still looking around.. was at a concert.,.

just sad I cant chase this.. low funds

[EquusStorm]

115/954 at 2am

[brunota2003]

Here is something we did before Isabel hit NC in 2003: Take a video of EVERYTHING you can for insurance purposes. On high dollar equipment (TV, Computers, etc), write down the make, model, S/N, and if you know it, the value (basically making a high value cheat sheet). We had outbuildings that were full of tools. We took video showing every tool in every tool chest, and wrote down information we thought might be pertinent in the event we needed to file an insurance claim. Thankfully for us, Isabel weakened and we didn't need the video...but for those worried about possibly losing things, it'll give you something to do other than just sitting around worrying.

Of course if you evacuate, be sure you take the list and video with you. It doesn't do you any good if you lose it, too.

[Steve]

ok im back.. what did I miss ?

You probably saw it but he is down to 954mb.

still looking around.. was at a concert.,.

just sad I cant chase this.. low funds

Livin' that Denver life. Hahaha. Maybe not the best storm to chase per 24hour ECMWF, but this will be the first Major Hurricane landfall of the everyone-has-a-smart phone generation if it's right. There's liable to be more first person footage than any of us have ever seen.

[stephen23]

may be leveling off based upon satellite imagery. Had a quick burst of intensification, but now looks to be steady state. Eye not quite as well defined and cloud tops slightly warmer. May be temporary though

Eye appears to be open to the NW again per radar?

Looks solid to me.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/783907056017215488

Yeah. Your right was still looking at Cuban radar and it appeared to open up here but that radar is a long ways away.

[Patricia]

That's a good suggestion.

[brunota2003]

Friday
Hurricane conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 85. West southwest wind 95 to 115 mph becoming west southwest 70 to 90 mph. Winds could gust as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.


This is at the NASA Shuttle Landing faculty in Brevard County on the Barrier Island

Interesting fact: I saw mention on Twitter earlier that the design specs for at least the Vehicle Assembly Building are rated to survive up to 125 mph gusts...meaning those forecast 145 mph gusts might do a lot of damage to those buildings, or possibly even destroy some of them.

Not sure where GOES-R is being housed. Hopefully they tucked it away somewhere in a bunker?

[ConvergenceZone]

Expecting 130 to 140mph when I wake up tomorrow. The only reason they kept it at 115mph is because they want to make sure strengthening phase isn't temporary

[crm6360]

Expecting 130 to 140mph when I wake up tomorrow. The only reason they kept it at 115mph is because they want to make sure strengthening phase isn't temporary

That is flat out ignorance. Data only supports 115. The NHC does not wishcast.

[Hammy]

Expecting 130 to 140mph when I wake up tomorrow. The only reason they kept it at 115mph is because they want to make sure strengthening phase isn't temporary

I don't think there was enough evidence to increase at the time the plane left, and as far as I know (I could be wrong) when they're flying frequent missions like this, they usually don't change the intensity between flights.