ATL: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

BobHarlem · #81 Postby **BobHarlem** » Thu May 26, 2016 9:20 am

Eric Blake (from NHC) called out the fact the shear forecast decreased quite a bit this morning.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 4537230337

#82 Postby **drezee** » Thu May 26, 2016 9:27 am

Looks closed to me...

#83 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 26, 2016 9:30 am

Yikes,look at the decreasing shear values.

Code: Select all

   * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL912016  05/26/16  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    32    35    39    43    48    53    56    60    60    60
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    32    35    39    43    48    53    46    36    30    28
V (KT) LGEM       25    25    25    24    24    24    25    29    34    34    30    28    27
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        38    34    36    29    17    16     3     4     4     6     6    11     8
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     1     0    -2     0    -3     0    -4    -3    -4    -4    -1    -6
SHEAR DIR        237   214   214   229   215   199    76   132   138   192   219   193   209
SST (C)         26.0  25.9  25.8  25.6  25.1  24.6  26.0  25.1  23.7  23.0  22.9  22.6  21.1
POT. INT. (KT)   112   112   111   110   106   102   113   104    94    88    88    87    81
ADJ. POT. INT.    98    99    98    97    94    90    98    89    81    76    76    75    72
200 MB T (C)   -56.6 -56.6 -56.5 -56.9 -57.2 -56.7 -57.1 -57.0 -57.4 -57.5 -57.7 -57.8 -58.0
200 MB VXT (C)  -1.0  -0.8  -1.0  -1.3  -1.2  -1.0  -0.5  -0.4  -0.4  -0.1  -0.5  -0.2  -0.2
TH_E DEV (C)       5     6     6     6     5     6     5     7     5     7     5     8     5
700-500 MB RH     53    54    52    51    51    46    46    50    57    59    59    61    60
MODEL VTX (KT)     5     6     6     6     8     8     9     9    10    10    10     9     8
850 MB ENV VOR    -3     0     0   -10    -2   -13   -22   -21   -21   -13   -11     9     0
200 MB DIV        -8    22    14     3    10    -1     6    21    16    18    20     8    10
700-850 TADV       2     5     4     4     5     5     4     4     3     0    -1     0     0
LAND (KM)        767   802   848   796   710   557   352   196    76   -14   -68   -78  -162
LAT (DEG N)     26.6  27.0  27.5  28.0  28.6  29.6  30.5  31.3  32.1  32.9  33.5  34.2  35.2
LONG(DEG W)     69.5  70.4  71.2  72.1  73.1  75.0  77.2  78.8  79.7  80.0  80.0  79.6  79.2
STM SPEED (KT)     7     9     9    10    10    10     9     6     5     3     4     4     6
HEAT CONTENT       1     1     0     0     0     0     0     4     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/  5      CX,CY:  -4/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  700  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  13.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  63.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            1.5

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   4.   8.  11.  12.  13.  13.  14.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   3.   3.   4.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   9.  11.  13.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   1.   2.   2.   2.  -1.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   5.   7.  10.  14.  18.  23.  28.  31.  35.  35.  35.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   26.6    69.5

      ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST     05/26/16  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.60         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    31.0      28.8  to    2.9       0.00         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :     0.4       0.0  to  155.1       0.00         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    13.9      37.5  to    2.9       0.68         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :  9999.0       2.8  to   -3.1     999.00         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.07         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :     8.2     -23.1  to  181.5       0.15         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :    72.2      28.4  to  139.1       0.40         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:    52.4     100.0  to    0.0       0.48         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   152.6     960.3  to  -67.1       0.79         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Logistic:     0.8%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%    0.0%    0.5%    0.1%
    Bayesian:     0.1%  999.0%  999.0%    0.0%    0.0%  999.0%  999.0%
   Consensus:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST     05/26/16  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST     05/26/2016  12 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  25    27    30    32    35    39    43    48    53    46    36    30    28
 18HR AGO           25    24    27    29    32    36    40    45    50    43    33    27    25
 12HR AGO           25    22    21    23    26    30    34    39    44    37    27    21    19
  6HR AGO           25    19    16    15    18    22    26    31    36    29    19   DIS   DIS
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

#84 Postby **tarheelprogrammer** » Thu May 26, 2016 9:32 am

cycloneye wrote:Yikes,look at the decreasing shear values.

Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 05/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 43 48 53 56 60 60 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 43 48 53 46 36 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 29 34 34 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 34 36 29 17 16 3 4 4 6 6 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 0 -3 0 -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 237 214 214 229 215 199 76 132 138 192 219 193 209 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.1 24.6 26.0 25.1 23.7 23.0 22.9 22.6 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 111 110 106 102 113 104 94 88 88 87 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 99 98 97 94 90 98 89 81 76 76 75 72 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.6 -56.5 -56.9 -57.2 -56.7 -57.1 -57.0 -57.4 -57.5 -57.7 -57.8 -58.0 200 MB VXT (C) -1.0 -0.8 -1.0 -1.3 -1.2 -1.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 7 5 7 5 8 5 700-500 MB RH 53 54 52 51 51 46 46 50 57 59 59 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 0 -10 -2 -13 -22 -21 -21 -13 -11 9 0 200 MB DIV -8 22 14 3 10 -1 6 21 16 18 20 8 10 700-850 TADV 2 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 767 802 848 796 710 557 352 196 76 -14 -68 -78 -162 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.6 29.6 30.5 31.3 32.1 32.9 33.5 34.2 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 69.5 70.4 71.2 72.1 73.1 75.0 77.2 78.8 79.7 80.0 80.0 79.6 79.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 10 10 9 6 5 3 4 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 23. 28. 31. 35. 35. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.6 69.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 05/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.40 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 152.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.8% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 05/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 05/26/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 32 35 39 43 48 53 46 36 30 28 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 36 40 45 50 43 33 27 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 30 34 39 44 37 27 21 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 26 31 36 29 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

So, no shear and warm waters. Hmmm.

#85 Postby **tarheelprogrammer** » Thu May 26, 2016 9:36 am

drezee wrote:Looks closed to me...

So, closed low (check). Warm waters (check), and no shear all the way to landfall (check). So, what keeps this so weak? Not saying it will get stronger just wondering what environmental factors would cause that?

Hurricaneman · #86 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Thu May 26, 2016 9:39 am

maybe dry air

Siker · #87 Postby **Siker** » Thu May 26, 2016 9:41 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Yikes,look at the decreasing shear values.

Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 05/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 43 48 53 56 60 60 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 43 48 53 46 36 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 29 34 34 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 34 36 29 17 16 3 4 4 6 6 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 0 -3 0 -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 237 214 214 229 215 199 76 132 138 192 219 193 209 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.1 24.6 26.0 25.1 23.7 23.0 22.9 22.6 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 111 110 106 102 113 104 94 88 88 87 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 99 98 97 94 90 98 89 81 76 76 75 72 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.6 -56.5 -56.9 -57.2 -56.7 -57.1 -57.0 -57.4 -57.5 -57.7 -57.8 -58.0 200 MB VXT (C) -1.0 -0.8 -1.0 -1.3 -1.2 -1.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 7 5 7 5 8 5 700-500 MB RH 53 54 52 51 51 46 46 50 57 59 59 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 0 -10 -2 -13 -22 -21 -21 -13 -11 9 0 200 MB DIV -8 22 14 3 10 -1 6 21 16 18 20 8 10 700-850 TADV 2 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 767 802 848 796 710 557 352 196 76 -14 -68 -78 -162 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.6 29.6 30.5 31.3 32.1 32.9 33.5 34.2 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 69.5 70.4 71.2 72.1 73.1 75.0 77.2 78.8 79.7 80.0 80.0 79.6 79.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 10 10 9 6 5 3 4 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 23. 28. 31. 35. 35. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.6 69.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 05/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.40 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 152.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.8% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 05/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 05/26/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 32 35 39 43 48 53 46 36 30 28 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 36 40 45 50 43 33 27 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 30 34 39 44 37 27 21 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 26 31 36 29 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

So, no shear and warm waters. Hmmm.

Except it doesn't have much time over warm water. Note on the SHIPS output how SST's drop below 26°C, and you can see on current sst maps that there's a large region of sub-26° SST's between the warm waters in the Bahamas and the Gulf Stream itself off the Carolinas.

#88 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 26, 2016 9:43 am

First misssion departs on Friday at 11 AM EDT.

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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 26 MAY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MAY 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER..... CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA....NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
       FIGHT ONE - TEAL 71           FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 27/1800Z                   A. 28/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0202 CYCLONE
       C. 27/1500Z                   C. 28/0830Z........CORRECTED
       D. 28.0N 74.0W                D. 30.0N 76.0W
       E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z       E. 28/1100Z TO 28/1630Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
       SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
    3. REMARKS:  THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD.  DAILY TCPODS WILL
       CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS
       ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM

#89 Postby **tarheelprogrammer** » Thu May 26, 2016 9:43 am

Hurricaneman wrote::uarrow: maybe dry air

It has to be that because everything else seems to be good to go.

TheStormExpert · #90 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Thu May 26, 2016 9:46 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote::uarrow: maybe dry air

It has to be that because everything else seems to be good to go.

Levi Cowan with Tropical Tidbits did mention dry air getting entrained into 91L from off the SE U.S.

#91 Postby **tarheelprogrammer** » Thu May 26, 2016 9:47 am

Siker wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Yikes,look at the decreasing shear values.

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* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 05/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 43 48 53 56 60 60 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 43 48 53 46 36 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 29 34 34 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 34 36 29 17 16 3 4 4 6 6 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 0 -3 0 -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 237 214 214 229 215 199 76 132 138 192 219 193 209 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.1 24.6 26.0 25.1 23.7 23.0 22.9 22.6 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 111 110 106 102 113 104 94 88 88 87 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 99 98 97 94 90 98 89 81 76 76 75 72 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.6 -56.5 -56.9 -57.2 -56.7 -57.1 -57.0 -57.4 -57.5 -57.7 -57.8 -58.0 200 MB VXT (C) -1.0 -0.8 -1.0 -1.3 -1.2 -1.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 7 5 7 5 8 5 700-500 MB RH 53 54 52 51 51 46 46 50 57 59 59 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 0 -10 -2 -13 -22 -21 -21 -13 -11 9 0 200 MB DIV -8 22 14 3 10 -1 6 21 16 18 20 8 10 700-850 TADV 2 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 767 802 848 796 710 557 352 196 76 -14 -68 -78 -162 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.6 29.6 30.5 31.3 32.1 32.9 33.5 34.2 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 69.5 70.4 71.2 72.1 73.1 75.0 77.2 78.8 79.7 80.0 80.0 79.6 79.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 10 10 9 6 5 3 4 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 23. 28. 31. 35. 35. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.6 69.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 05/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.40 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 152.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.8% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 05/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 05/26/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 32 35 39 43 48 53 46 36 30 28 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 36 40 45 50 43 33 27 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 30 34 39 44 37 27 21 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 26 31 36 29 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

So, no shear and warm waters. Hmmm.

Except it doesn't have much time over warm water. Note on the SHIPS output how SST's drop below 26°C, and you can see on current sst maps that there's a large region of sub-26° SST's between the warm waters in the Bahamas and the Gulf Stream itself off the Carolinas.

Sure but we will just have to watch and see. Gulf Stream is very warm and has blown storms up before. SHIP model takes it to around 60 knots correct?

#92 Postby **tarheelprogrammer** » Thu May 26, 2016 9:48 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote::uarrow: maybe dry air

It has to be that because everything else seems to be good to go.

Levi Cowan with Tropical Tidbits did mention dry air getting entrained into 91L from off the SE U.S.

Yeah I remember that now seen the tweet yesterday. Cycloneye did mention water temps are cool outside of the Gulf Stream.

TheStormExpert · #93 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Thu May 26, 2016 9:49 am

The biggest factors going against it for strengthening is a mix of warm and cooler SST's and Mid-Level Continental Dry Air.

This very well could be why the models barely do much with it expect maybe strengthening into a weak TS.

#94 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 26, 2016 9:59 am

Follow all the data from Recon when it begins to fly to investigate 91L on Friday May 27 at 11 AM EDT at the Recon Thread

#95 Postby **tarheelprogrammer** » Thu May 26, 2016 10:45 am

My favorite IR loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

#96 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu May 26, 2016 10:52 am

Surface dew points in the interior Southeast are forecast to be in the 50s (or even high 40s) on Saturday, with relative humidity levels around 35-45%. That air could get into the system easily and be a limiting factor. The more humid air looks to be more to the north and west.

#97 Postby **tarheelprogrammer** » Thu May 26, 2016 11:01 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Surface dew points in the interior Southeast are forecast to be in the 50s (or even high 40s) on Saturday, with relative humidity levels around 35-45%. That air could get into the system easily and be a limiting factor. The more humid air looks to be more to the north and west.

You might be right but we shall see soon enough the storm or whatever it is right now is really starting to take shape.

#98 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu May 26, 2016 11:03 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Surface dew points in the interior Southeast are forecast to be in the 50s (or even high 40s) on Saturday, with relative humidity levels around 35-45%. That air could get into the system easily and be a limiting factor. The more humid air looks to be more to the north and west.

You might be right but we shall see soon enough the storm or whatever it is right now is really starting to take shape.

A smaller storm (size wise) would be less likely to be affected by that air, while a larger storm would more likely involve that.

#99 Postby **tarheelprogrammer** » Thu May 26, 2016 11:05 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Surface dew points in the interior Southeast are forecast to be in the 50s (or even high 40s) on Saturday, with relative humidity levels around 35-45%. That air could get into the system easily and be a limiting factor. The more humid air looks to be more to the north and west.

You might be right but we shall see soon enough the storm or whatever it is right now is really starting to take shape.

A smaller storm (size wise) would be less likely to be affected by that air, while a larger storm would more likely involve that.

Very true if the air is dry it could limit it. SHIPS still shows it getting to 60 knots if I am not mistaken. It could be wrong of course but has trended up the last few runs.

galaxy401 · #100 Postby **galaxy401** » Thu May 26, 2016 11:10 am

Well welcome back for Hurricane Season guys. Slightly early but let the games begin.

ATL: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

ATL: BONNIE - Recon

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

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