EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Almost classifiable given the well defined circulation and increase in organization.

[1900hurricane]

Just like with 99W, I'd say we're good for classification here.

[cycloneye]

100%-100%

Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become significantly
better organized during the day near a low pressure area located
about 575 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. It appears
that a tropical depression is forming, and advisories will likely be
initiated on this system later this evening. The low is forecast
to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph during the next few days,
remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

[stormwise]

Is elongated to the east along the MT. and has some dry air intrusion atm.

[cycloneye]

03/0000 UTC 11.4N 107.4W T1.5/1.5 94E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942016 07/03/16 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 52 64 80 92 107 109 111 104 96
V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 52 64 80 92 107 109 111 104 96
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 45 55 68 83 99 106 102 89 76
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 10 10 10 9 10 11 7 13 8 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 0 0 2 8
SHEAR DIR 88 85 93 85 65 60 60 64 56 72 42 57 21
SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.1 27.0 26.0 25.9
POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 162 160 152 154 153 152 145 134 123 122
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.8 -51.9 -52.8 -51.6 -52.0 -50.7 -51.5 -51.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 68 69 72 75 72 68 67 67 68 66
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 17 18 22 26 35 37 41 39 37
850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -3 -6 -8 -4 14 30 48 57 82 83 85
200 MB DIV 90 66 47 37 44 57 82 85 104 55 68 59 81
700-850 TADV 1 1 2 3 1 -1 -2 -4 -3 -5 -4 -2 6
LAND (KM) 952 989 1031 1057 1092 1214 1310 1418 1525 1596 1692 1792 1850
LAT (DEG N) 10.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 107.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 39 36 36 38 35 22 30 46 28 18 24 6 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 14. 13.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 19. 32. 33. 37. 32. 28.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 22. 34. 50. 62. 77. 79. 81. 74. 66.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.9 107.8

** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 07/03/16 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 5.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.48 3.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.62 4.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 3.9
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.46 1.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 81.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.79 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.28 -0.3
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.9%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 34.5% 24.1% 16.3% 0.0% 18.8% 18.1%
Logistic: 7.7% 35.1% 20.8% 8.5% 4.0% 15.9% 19.5%
Bayesian: 0.3% 18.8% 8.1% 1.1% 0.3% 2.9% 14.2%
Consensus: 7.2% 29.5% 17.7% 8.7% 1.4% 12.6% 17.3%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 07/03/16 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[stormwise]

EC does ramp this up eventually, not convinced myself has been around in a vigorous MT and has been unable to fill in.

[Kingarabian]

[1900hurricane]

Sprawling structure on microwave.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
0300 UTC SUN JUL 03 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 108.3W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 108.3W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.3N 109.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 11.8N 111.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 12.4N 113.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 12.9N 116.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.8N 120.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 16.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 108.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
900 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2016

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 108.3W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
900 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2016

The deep convection associated with the area of low pressure well
southwest of Manzanillo has become much better organized during the
past 6 to 12 hours, and this system is now classified as a tropical
cyclone. Satellite imagery shows a large convective canopy with
multiple curved bands. The estimated center position is near the
eastern edge of the deep convection and the initial intensity is set
to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB.

The environment appears conducive for at least steady strengthening
during the next 3 days, as the cyclone will be moving over SSTs of
29-30C and in an environment of low to moderate shear and abundant
moisture. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a
tropical storm tonight or early Sunday and becoming a hurricane on
Monday. The system is expected to peak in intensity in 3 to 4 days
near major hurricane strength before gradual weakening begins as the
center moves over progressively cooler waters. The official
forecast is above the intensity consensus and close to a blend of
the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 given the
recent formation of the system. The dominant steering mechanism
through the forecast period will be the western periphery of a
subtropical ridge centered over northern Mexico and the southern
United States. This pattern should guide the cyclone on a general
westward to west-northwestward motion during the next 5 days. Most
of the track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario
with the exception of the GFDL model, which is well to the right.
There is some along-track spread between the generally slower GFS
model and the faster ECMWF and HWRF through much of the period. The
across-track spread increases in 4-5 days with the GFS and GEFS
ensemble mean showing more of a poleward turn as they erode the
ridge more, while the ECMWF, ECMWF ensemble mean, and UKMET have a
stronger ridge and more westward motion. The NHC track forecast is
close to a blend of these two camps through the forecast period and
is of about average confidence.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 11.1N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 11.3N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 11.8N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 12.4N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 12.9N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 13.8N 120.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 16.5N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Kingarabian]

Sprawling structure on microwave.

Looks prime for RI at this rate.

[1900hurricane]

Sprawling structure on microwave.

Looks prime for RI at this rate.

Only thing to slow it down at least in the short term is the amount or real estate it covers. Other than that though, structure is excellent.

[gatorcane]

Structure looking good. Lacking a little convection in eastern quad at the moment but is on its way

[Yellow Evan]

Dry air seems to be entering from the east. Great structure overall though.

[bg1]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 11.1N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 11.3N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 11.8N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 12.4N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 12.9N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 13.8N 120.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 16.5N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

The last time I saw major hurricane strength forecasted for a new storm, I think it reached Cat 5 quickly...

[Kingarabian]

3.0 from SAB.

Should be upgraded to a TS in the next advisory.

[stormwise]

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 JUL 2016 Time : 061500 UTC
Lat : 11:12:24 N Lon : 108:47:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1012.0mb/ 31.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.3 2.3

Center Temp : -7.4C Cloud Region Temp : -31.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.52 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 12:11:59 N Lon: 109:22:47 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 35km
- Environmental MSLP : 1014mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 41.0 degrees


Re above posts.

Example only everyone has different opinions this is mine on what excellent structure is not the above.

[Extratropical94]

03E THREE 160703 0600 11.5N 109.1W EPAC 35 1005

TS strength at 06z

[Extratropical94]

DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM BLAS...
...NO THREAT TO MEXICO...

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 030858
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
300 AM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016

Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that a long
curved band of convection now wraps at least half way around the
low-level center. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have
increased as result, with TAFB coming in at T2.5/35 kt and SAB at
T3.0/45 kt. Therefore, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical
Storm Blas.

The initial motion estimate is 285/12, based heavily on microwave
fix positions. Overall, there is no significant change to the
previous forecast track or reasoning. Blas is expected to move
along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge
located over northern Mexico and the southern United States. This
stable steering pattern should keep Blas moving in a general
westward to west-northwestward direction for the next 120 hours.
The NHC track forecast is slightly north of the previous forecast
track, and closely follows the consensus track model TVCE.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for steady strengthening
during the next 72 hours as Blas moves over SSTs of 29-30C and
encounters decreasing vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt. The
new NHC intensity forecast shows Blas becoming a hurricane on Monday
and a major hurricane by Wednesday. Gradual weakening is expected to
begin by 96 hours or so as the cyclone starts to move over 26C or
cooler seas-surface temperatures, which should result in some cold
upwelling or mixing beneath Blas. The official forecast is above the
intensity consensus IVCN, and close to the previous intensity
forecast and a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 11.7N 109.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 12.0N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 12.6N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 13.1N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 13.6N 117.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 14.6N 122.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 15.8N 126.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 17.3N 130.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart