EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

[stormwise]

GFS ensembles more south into Hawaii @ 06z.

Operational GFS well north of Hawaii.

EC is showing the jet shift to the north and the shear clearing out before the cyclone nears the island, If that dont happen this system will be ripped to shreds per the shear chart.

[NDG]

European model is on crack, it has been too aggressive with systems in the EPAC at times.

Here's just one example with Blas,

[Alyono]

May be approaching cane intensity now

[TheStormExpert]

I agree NDG, the Euro has been too aggressive with many systems in the East Pacific and even on the Atlantic side showing phantom systems.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016

The center of Celia is moving over warmer water west of the cool
wake of Hurricane Blas. In response, the central dense overcast has
become much better defined with cloud tops colder than -80C just
south of the center. In addition, recent microwave images suggest a
small mid-level eye is forming under the overcast. Subjective
satellite intensity estimates are 45 kt from SAB and 55 kt from
TAFB, and there was a recent CIMMS AMSU estimate of 80 kt. The
initial intensity is increased to 50 kt, and this could be
conservative.

Celia has continued to accelerate and the initial motion is now
280/13. A westward motion south of a building subtropical ridge is
expected to continue for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a
west-northwestward motion as the storm approaches a break in the
ridge. The guidance remains tightly clustered and the new forecast
track is near the center of the guidance envelope near the various
consensus models. The new track is a little faster than the
previous track based on current trends and the guidance.

Celia should be in an environment of light vertical wind shear for
the next five days, so the intensity forecast is dependent mainly
on sea surface temperatures. The cyclone is expected to move
over SSTs near 28C for the next 48 hours or so, and steady to
possibly rapid strengthening is expected. After that, the SSTs
gradually decrease along the forecast track until they are near 25C
at 120 hours. This should cause Celia to gradually weaken. The new
intensity forecast shows a faster intensification than the previous
forecast, with Celia becoming a hurricane in about 24 hours. The
forecast from 48-120 hours is unchanged from the previous forecast.
Overall, the intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS
model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 14.4N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 14.8N 119.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 14.8N 121.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 14.8N 123.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 14.9N 125.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 16.0N 129.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 19.0N 137.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[galaxy401]

Weird that they lowered the intensity earlier when it is suddenly much stronger now.

[Yellow Evan]

European model is on crack, it has been too aggressive with systems in the EPAC at times.

The timing hasn't been perfect, but in terms of overall intensity, it underdid Blas slightly if anything.

[Kingarabian]

European model is on crack, it has been too aggressive with systems in the EPAC at times.

Here's just one example with Blas,

[img]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016070900/ecmwf_mslpa_cpac_1.png[img]
[img]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016070200/ecmwf_mslpa_cpac_8.png[img]

But no worse than the GFS which repeatedly had Blas becoming a cat.5 for almost a week. I mean the GFS keeps Celia a Cat.2 over 23-24C water.

[Kingarabian]

Weird that they lowered the intensity earlier when it is suddenly much stronger now.

Past 2 advisories they were too conservative because of bad Dvorak fixes.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016

The cloud pattern of Celia currently features a small central dense
overcast with outer bands present in all quadrants except the
north. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now 55
kt, and earlier AMSU estimates from CIMSS and CIRA were also near 55
kt. This value will be the initial intensity. The cyclone
currently has good cirrus outflow over the western semicircle.

The storm has moved due west for the past few hours. However, the
longer-term motion is 275/12. A westward motion south of the
subtropical ridge is expected to continue for the next 48 hours or
so, followed by a west-northwestward motion as the storm approaches
a break in the ridge. There has been little change in the guidance
since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is an update
of the previous forecast.

The short-term intensity forecast is tricky even though Celia is
now moving over increasing sea surface temperatures. The Rapid
Intensification Index of the SHIPS model indicates a 50 percent
chance of 25-35 kt of strengthening during the next 24 hours, and
this is supported by the forecasts of the SHIPS model and the
Florida State Superensemble. However, the lack of bands in the
northern quadrant suggests that the storm is still struggling with
stable air caused by the cold wake of Hurricane Blas, and it is
unclear how long this will continue. The intensity forecast is thus
conservative in calling for 20 kt of intensification in 24 hours,
followed by some additional strengthening to a peak intensity of 90
kt by 48 hours. However, it would not be a surprise for Celia to
become a major hurricane. After 48 hours, Celia will gradually move
over cooler water which should cause a gradual weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 14.3N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 14.4N 119.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 14.5N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 14.5N 124.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 14.8N 126.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 18.0N 134.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/751881352471977984

[gatorcane]

Saved loop:

[Alyono]

struggling again

not the least bit surprised. It briefly got over a warmer patch of water. However, it is now starting to track over the same waters that Blas bombed out over

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF has this missing Hawaii just to the north at 1000MB in long-range:



18Z GFS has a Hawaii hit:

[Yellow Evan]

SST's don't look great but to me the storm doesn't really look bad.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016

Celia has changed very little since the last advisory. A small
central dense overcast persists over the low-level center, with an
elongated convective band wrapping around the southern and western
side of the circulation. The initial intensity remains 55 kt based
on Dvorak estimates of T3.5 from TAFB and SAB. Celia appears to
have escaped the coldest water of Hurricane Blas's wake and is now
over sea surface temperatures warmer than 27 degrees Celsius. In
addition, vertical shear is very low and is expected to remain low
for the next 5 days. Therefore, more significant strengthening
(compared to the past few days) should begin soon and continue
during the next 2 to 3 days while the cyclone is over warm water. A
gradual weakening trend should occur on day 3 and beyond. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM
models and is very similar to the previous forecast.

Celia's initial motion is westward, or 275/10 kt. A continued
westward motion is expected for the next 48 hours while the cyclone
is located south of the subtropical ridge. By day 3, Celia will be
situated along the southwestern periphery of the ridge and should
turn west-northwestward and northwestward at the end of the forecast
period. The track guidance continues to be relatively stable and
tightly clustered from cycle to cycle, and the new NHC track
forecast is just an update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 14.5N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 14.5N 120.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 14.6N 123.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 14.6N 125.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 15.0N 127.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 16.7N 130.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 19.0N 134.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 21.0N 138.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[stormwise]

Atm the system appears sheared.

[Yellow Evan]

Not seeing any shear but all the convection is south of the upwelled area.

[Alyono]

0Z MU is just north of the islands as a very intense hurricane

The environment seems as if it will be quite favorable as this approaches Hawaii