ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

My money is on the area near 16N 58W. Convection to the north is belching outflow boundaries.....MGC

[Blown Away]

JB blowing up on Twitter...
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

[sma10]

no need to sweat anything right now...its not even a td

Actually j that was my point - they are likely very on edge right now because it's not even a TD. Part of the battle of emergency management/evacuation is public awareness.

Let's hope it doesn't play out, but it's a well known fear down here of this exact type of scenario.

[Blown Away]

Latest TAFB has 99L near SE Bahamas as "Possible Tropical Cyclone" in 72 hours...

[BobHarlem]

JB blowing up on Twitter...
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

Bastardi going full hype?

[Weatherboy1]

Last couple of frames show some of the strongest convection yet firing up right around the POSSIBLE center we've been discussing. That has been the missing ingredient so far - and it could help 99 finally crank up.

[gatorcane]

A lot of support now from the Euro Ensembles, that combined with the consistency of the ECMWF, I think NHC will go up to 70% or even 80% chance of development for 8pm EST outlook.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[JaxGator]

Looks like 99L is pushing the dry air aside as it expands just like Gaston is doing at the moment. It might still keep it in check but not as much as before (imo).

[OuterBanker]

If the Euro verifies when the GFS had nothing 10 days out then some serious discussions should occur in congress. Mitigation takes time. If the GFS comes around three days out what good is it.

[RL3AO]

If the Euro verifies when the GFS had nothing 10 days out then some serious discussions should occur in congress. Mitigation takes time. If the GFS comes around three days out what good is it.

Theres already a new model coming to replace the GFS.

[BucMan2]

How much weight should we put into the Euro as far as the track given where 5 days out or so? Is the West Coast of Florida Tampa -St.Pete still in play?

[ScottNAtlanta]

How much weight should we put into the Euro as far as the track given where 5 days out or so? Is the West Coast of Florida Tampa -St.Pete still in play?

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but the avg 5 day error is about 150miles either side of the track...and we really dont have a center yet to track.

[xironman]

Nice anti-cyclone starting to build over top of 99L as the cloud tops are fanning symmetrically and turning in a clockwise fashion = good for development.

Still dry air around though which is keeping 99L in check for now.

https://s14.postimg.org/yl240a3m9/wv_animated.gif

It is not begin sheared heavily, so the dry air may not be that much of an issue.

[RL3AO]

How much weight should we put into the Euro as far as the track given where 5 days out or so? Is the West Coast of Florida Tampa -St.Pete still in play?

Tampa needs to watch closely. It's among a large part of the US Coast that should watch closely.

[Evil Jeremy]

How much weight should we put into the Euro as far as the track given where 5 days out or so? Is the West Coast of Florida Tampa -St.Pete still in play?

There is a far greater amount of uncertainty with this system than normal. ECMWF solution is bound to bounce around a bit in the 5 day time frame. Might be drastic, maybe not. But there are many factors at play here and no one is sure how it's going to play out.

[JaxGator]

The NHC says 99L is on a WNW heading, so it should miss Haiti and the DR but skirt Peuter Rico if I'm wrong (depending on where the center is).

[Steve]

JB blowing up on Twitter...
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

"KatrIvan" ? lmao

Just the same, that's obviously bad news for everyone between probably Ocean Springs/Pascagoula and over toward Panama City. Ivan wrecked the Eastern Shore, Pensacola Beach, some of Navarre and a lot of Pensacola. One of our mods, Ivanhater, took his name from that system. It came in as a 120mph Category 3 and had a pressure reading (as measured) of 943mb (27.85 at landfall as measured by NOAA Research Aircraft). If the ECMWF verifies, it would probably be slightly stronger (all ambient/background pressures being equal) but roughly about the same intensity. We had power knocked out in and around New Orleans and some sustained wind in the 30's even though it was a good 150-175 miles east.

Who knows what happens in the next few runs, but for now, this isn't a good run for Mobile/Baldwin/Escambia/Santa Rosa and Okaloosa Counties to be sure. Might want to start looking at those supplies before the frenzy hits in a few days.

[Joe Snow]

If the Euro verifies when the GFS had nothing 10 days out then some serious discussions should occur in congress. Mitigation takes time. If the GFS comes around three days out what good is it.

It's been an embarrassment at best. 2016 and we are supposed to be a leader in technology, but we can't get a weather model to be on par with the Euro at the very least. Put $400 million into NOAA money well spent.

I think this little bugger of a storm will ramp up hard in the next few days. Should be a good one to track. This is such a great site. The individual analysis of the storms have been great to read.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Nice anti-cyclone starting to build over top of 99L as the cloud tops are fanning symmetrically and turning in a clockwise fashion = good for development.

Still dry air around though which is keeping 99L in check for now.

https://s14.postimg.org/yl240a3m9/wv_animated.gif

It is not begin sheared heavily, so the dry air may not be that much of an issue.

Actually the convection being blown off the top is actually ventilating the extra convection off that was competing with the more southern center from earlier. That should help the center to consolidate.

[Frank2]

Too much speculation for my blood - last year or in 2014 there was one system that models had over Miami as a Cat 3, if I recall, but thankfully nothing. Right now the system is what the TWO said - very disorganized, unlike Gaston, which is on its way. Looking at the WV loop, considerable dry air ahead of 99, and let's not forget shear ended Fiona - and is not that far from 99. As others said complex situation, and complex situations often mean the outcome will not be as expected. We shall see...