ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stephen23]

I know the overall movement of the storm is NE but latest sat images show it moving due west right now while performing another cyclonic loop. I am wondering how much extra time over water this gives it and how much this slows it down when it comes out of the loop.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 012051
NOAA3 WXWXA HERMINE HDOB 11 20160901
204200 2824N 08510W 6958 03042 9852 +141 +090 261014 016 022 000 00
204230 2822N 08510W 6955 03047 9855 +139 +092 254017 018 022 000 00
204300 2820N 08510W 6958 03047 9864 +134 +092 258019 020 023 000 00
204330 2818N 08510W 6957 03050 9865 +135 +090 258024 025 025 000 00
204400 2816N 08510W 6957 03051 9869 +133 +096 258025 025 026 000 00
204430 2813N 08510W 6958 03052 9877 +127 +100 260027 027 029 000 00
204500 2811N 08510W 6958 03053 9877 +127 +112 263028 029 032 000 00
204530 2809N 08510W 6957 03055 9882 +124 +116 257031 032 034 000 00
204600 2807N 08510W 6958 03058 9884 +124 +113 258035 036 036 000 00
204630 2805N 08510W 6967 03051 9882 +128 +124 259036 036 039 002 00
204700 2803N 08510W 6953 03068 9890 +122 //// 265042 045 057 016 01
204730 2801N 08510W 6958 03070 9898 +120 //// 273050 054 065 018 01
204800 2759N 08510W 6958 03079 9912 +113 //// 274058 059 065 027 01
204830 2757N 08510W 6947 03091 9924 +108 //// 273064 070 061 036 01
204900 2755N 08510W 6957 03087 9928 +112 //// 272059 060 056 037 01
204930 2753N 08510W 6959 03089 9935 +111 //// 277060 061 053 016 01
205000 2751N 08510W 6961 03094 9942 +112 //// 275058 061 055 004 01
205030 2748N 08510W 6965 03101 9955 +110 //// 272058 060 053 004 01
205100 2746N 08510W 6942 03131 9967 +105 //// 271053 054 052 002 01
205130 2744N 08510W 6953 03123 9981 +099 //// 263054 055 051 001 01

70 kt FL, 65 kt SFMR. Hurricane winds spreading south/southwest of center.

[wxman57]

Looks like it might reach 100 mph (Cat 2) before landfall this evening. I checked our 7-day forecast from last Thursday - Cat 2 (100 mph) into Apalachicola. Sure, we thought it might have become a TS as it passed south FL, and we didn't count on the thing stalling in the Gulf for 24hrs, but I think that's a pretty good 7-day final landfall forecast.

Might be able to take Saturday off after 12 straight extended hurricane shifts. Have to keep an eye on those 2 disturbances near Africa in another 7-10 days.

[deltadog03]

I still see a solid NNE movement. I think the sat images are a little misleading due to clouds coming and going around the center. Recon says a pretty clear picture, its at least NNE with some N and NE components.

[deltadog03]

Looks like it might reach 100 mph (Cat 2) before landfall this evening. I checked our 7-day forecast from last Thursday - Cat 2 (100 mph) into Apalachicola. Sure, we thought it might have become a TS as it passed south FL, and we didn't count on the thing stalling in the Gulf for 24hrs, but I think that's a pretty good 7-day final landfall forecast.

Might be able to take Saturday off after 12 straight extended hurricane shifts. Have to keep an eye on those 2 disturbances near Africa in another 7-10 days.

Great Call...btw, Am I just old, and my eyes playing tricks on me...but, looking at Recon drops this has been moving more NNE correct? I think this is going to come in west of there po0int..

[wxman57]

I still see a solid NNE movement. I think the sat images are a little misleading due to clouds coming and going around the center. Recon says a pretty clear picture, its at least NNE with some N and NE components.

Agree, deltadog03. It's moving NNE. Irregular cloud pattern around the eye is deceiving. Also, the center is rather large. Recon drops may not be exactly in the center of the 30-40 mile wide area. They may give the appearance of a motion that is not correct.

[Aric Dunn]

I still see a solid NNE movement. I think the sat images are a little misleading due to clouds coming and going around the center. Recon says a pretty clear picture, its at least NNE with some N and NE components.

if you do a long loop you can see two vorts in the eye( the good kind) rotating around north one is going west south one east add in the cloud movement is probably throwing people off.

in the recon data you can see it with that extended area of zero winds as they fly threw not just a quick wind shift.

[syfr]

Apparently they will announce a mandatory visitor evacuation of here in Ocracoke Island tonight. We have reservations to leave tomorrow on the ferry so we should be good

[JtSmarts]

Looks like it might reach 100 mph (Cat 2) before landfall this evening. I checked our 7-day forecast from last Thursday - Cat 2 (100 mph) into Apalachicola. Sure, we thought it might have become a TS as it passed south FL, and we didn't count on the thing stalling in the Gulf for 24hrs, but I think that's a pretty good 7-day final landfall forecast.

Might be able to take Saturday off after 12 straight extended hurricane shifts. Have to keep an eye on those 2 disturbances near Africa in another 7-10 days.

That's amazing. It's great to continue to be able to read your posts (all ALL of our great Mets) and learn from you season after season. #don'teverleavesus

[Dave C]

Radar shows a strong band feeding into the north eyewall. Radar eye looks pretty symmetric for now.

[O Town]

St. George Island live beach cam. North of the eye right now.

http://www.blueparrotsgi.com/multimedia/livecam.htm

[Nimbus]

The storm is west of here.
14 ft surf with 20 ft peak waves reported at this buoy..

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it might reach 100 mph (Cat 2) before landfall this evening. I checked our 7-day forecast from last Thursday - Cat 2 (100 mph) into Apalachicola. Sure, we thought it might have become a TS as it passed south FL, and we didn't count on the thing stalling in the Gulf for 24hrs, but I think that's a pretty good 7-day final landfall forecast.

Might be able to take Saturday off after 12 straight extended hurricane shifts. Have to keep an eye on those 2 disturbances near Africa in another 7-10 days.

Great Call...btw, Am I just old, and my eyes playing tricks on me...but, looking at Recon drops this has been moving more NNE correct? I think this is going to come in west of there po0int..

image below the red line is a combined VDM from the recent AND soon to come VDM from the noaa plane now. been some shifting around general NE to NNE

[weathaguyry]

This may seem irrelevant now, but TS watches were extended up the NJ coast, I'd like to get an opinion on if they would maybe extend the watches to LI, and/or what the effects will be in the area, the NHC cone shows post-tropical, but they do mention it maybe it could gain tropical characteristics again, should I be worried for winds and/or storm surge? The GFS and Euro show TS force winds on LI but I'm not sure if they show it being post-tropical, or tropical

[OntarioEggplant]

That's a worrisome band incoming to St Pete

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 012101
NOAA3 WXWXA HERMINE HDOB 12 20160901
205200 2742N 08510W 6952 03127 9986 +100 +095 259056 056 047 001 00
205230 2740N 08510W 6960 03121 9994 +095 //// 259056 056 046 000 01
205300 2738N 08510W 6966 03118 9997 +097 //// 259055 056 043 001 01
205330 2736N 08510W 6963 03124 9998 +101 +082 261054 054 043 001 00
205400 2734N 08510W 6962 03128 0003 +101 +079 262053 054 044 000 00
205430 2732N 08510W 6962 03133 0008 +099 +086 264054 056 045 000 00
205500 2730N 08510W 6965 03134 0017 +096 +093 264055 056 043 002 00
205530 2728N 08510W 6963 03138 0019 +095 //// 262056 058 045 001 01
205600 2726N 08510W 6967 03138 0020 +098 +098 257049 051 043 001 00
205630 2724N 08510W 6966 03142 0023 +099 +096 260048 049 039 001 00
205700 2722N 08510W 6965 03145 0015 +107 +093 264046 046 039 001 00
205730 2720N 08510W 6961 03152 0015 +111 +088 259044 044 037 001 00
205800 2718N 08510W 6968 03149 0015 +115 +078 259043 045 035 001 00
205830 2716N 08510W 6960 03157 0025 +106 +080 264044 045 033 001 00
205900 2714N 08510W 6962 03157 0030 +105 +076 265047 047 034 000 00
205930 2712N 08511W 6963 03158 0032 +103 +086 262046 046 034 000 00
210000 2710N 08511W 6966 03156 0030 +107 +086 261043 045 036 000 00
210030 2709N 08511W 6962 03161 0037 +101 +095 258039 041 037 002 00
210100 2707N 08512W 6968 03156 0029 +110 +074 269041 043 037 000 00
210130 2704N 08511W 6971 03150 0035 +105 +088 270047 048 041 002 00

Someone else please take over.

[BRweather]

Looking at radar, it seemed it slowed up the last hour and a half

[dizzyfish]

Hillsborough County schools closed tomorrow.

[canefan]

Looks like it is creeping north or nearly stationary

[Noles2016]

Coastal areas of the Big Bend have been under water for hours. Panacea/Oyster Bay/Shell Point and other points are in trouble! Another double-digit surge event? I hope everyone got out...