ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 012111
NOAA3 WXWXA HERMINE HDOB 13 20160901
210200 2703N 08509W 6974 03148 0029 +108 //// 258045 046 036 012 01
210230 2701N 08508W 6960 03163 0034 +103 //// 254048 049 046 002 01
210300 2659N 08507W 6953 03178 0037 +104 +088 253048 048 050 000 03
210330 2657N 08507W 6958 03171 0039 +106 +077 254045 047 044 002 00
210400 2655N 08508W 6959 03171 0041 +104 +080 253047 048 044 000 00
210430 2653N 08508W 6958 03172 0040 +106 +080 255046 046 044 000 00
210500 2651N 08508W 6959 03173 0046 +102 +080 255043 044 043 001 00
210530 2649N 08508W 6957 03176 0051 +099 +086 248037 038 043 001 00
210600 2647N 08508W 6959 03177 0044 +105 +096 246037 038 044 001 00
210630 2645N 08508W 6963 03171 0039 +110 +084 245036 037 046 000 03
210700 2643N 08507W 6961 03175 0041 +110 +081 245039 041 041 000 00
210730 2642N 08505W 6959 03178 0040 +112 +078 249039 041 041 000 03
210800 2642N 08502W 6959 03179 0040 +113 +078 250037 038 /// /// 03
210830 2644N 08501W 6960 03176 0038 +114 +073 248038 039 /// /// 03
210900 2646N 08503W 6962 03172 0041 +108 +081 242040 041 /// /// 03
210930 2646N 08505W 6960 03173 0038 +110 +081 244039 040 /// /// 03
211000 2644N 08506W 6959 03175 0039 +110 +080 246038 039 /// /// 03
211030 2642N 08505W 6961 03175 0044 +107 +077 248040 040 /// /// 03
211100 2641N 08503W 6960 03177 0043 +109 +078 250038 039 /// /// 03
211130 2642N 08500W 6963 03175 0044 +109 +078 248038 039 039 000 03

[stormhunter7]

anyone seen the VDM message yet? Looks like pressure could be down?

[Aric Dunn]

storm surge cams
http://hurricanetrack.com/cam2.html

http://hurricanetrack.com/cam1.html

[Hurricane Andrew]

Amyone in this storm's impact zone, stay safe out there. I am upping my landfall call to 970mb and 100 miles per hour winds with 8-12ft surge possible. Just be careful.

[BRweather]

Perry and Wakulla look like they will be the hardest hit

[Steve]

This may seem irrelevant now, but TS watches were extended up the NJ coast, I'd like to get an opinion on if they would maybe extend the watches to LI, and/or what the effects will be in the area, the NHC cone shows post-tropical, but they do mention it maybe it could gain tropical characteristics again, should I be worried for winds and/or storm surge? The GFS and Euro show TS force winds on LI but I'm not sure if they show it being post-tropical, or tropical

I really don't think it's quantifiable at this point. It hasn't made first US landfall yet, much less 2nd or 3rd. It will depend on many things including whether it track inland or offshore, what weather patterns are in play 3-5 days out etc. Youre already in tune so best bet is just pay attention and stay tuned to local nws.

[psyclone]

Firehose band inching closer to the west coast.

[ScottNAtlanta]

lowest pressure is down to 983mb

[opticsguy]

There were HWRF runs showing a cat1/cat2 hitting the coastal bend 4-5 days ago.

[ScottNAtlanta]

NHC says it will be issuing full suite of warnings and advisories even if Hermine becomes "post tropical" until it is no longer a threat to East Coast. Lessons learned from Sandy

[JaxGator]

Rain squall coming into St. Augustine after having brief showers. It's a little breezy but nothing bad yet, but the band is also capable of producing a tornado.

[Dean4Storms]

Strange, cannot find a single buoy out there that has ever had sustained winds to Hurricane nor even a Gust!

[ScottNAtlanta]

storm surge cams
http://hurricanetrack.com/cam2.html

http://hurricanetrack.com/cam1.html

Wow...the St Marks Cam they are already under water

[MGC]

Have a cousin that lives in Tallahassee....I just talked with her and told her she could come stay with us. She thinks there won't be that much problem inland and declined the offer. She is fooling herself, she will be without power for a while. Hermine is starting to tighten up. Eye looks a bit elliptical on radar......MGC

[JaxGator]

Also, my locale in NW St. Johns is in the path of the band. It's only going to get more interesting from here.

[HenkL]

000
URNT12 KWBC 012116
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092016
A. 01/20:39:00Z
B. 28 deg 36 min N
085 deg 10 min W
C. 700 mb 2988 m
D. 51 kt
E. 015 deg 33 nm
F. 127 deg 59 kt
G. 017 deg 31 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 10 C / 3056 m
J. 15 C / 3064 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. RAGGED
M. C40
N. 12345 / 7
O. .01 / 1 nm
P. NOAA3 WXWXA HERMINE OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 65 KT 179 / 32 NM 20:47:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 69 KT 179 / 40 NM 20:48:39Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 155 / 05 KTS

[Nimbus]

Nasty feeder band moving in

[tropicwatch]

Just watched an hour loop on the wundermap. I am not liking what I saw, not much movement at all. Let me know what you think. Here is the link.

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=30.16&lon=-85.67&radar=1

[BRweather]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092016
A. 01/20:39:00Z
B. 28 deg 36 min N
085 deg 10 min W
C. 700 mb 2988 m
D. 51 kt
E. 015 deg 33 nm
F. 127 deg 59 kt
G. 017 deg 31 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 10 C / 3056 m
J. 15 C / 3064 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. RAGGED
M. C40
N. 12345 / 7
O. .01 / 1 nm
P. NOAA3 WXWXA HERMINE OB 06

[jasons2k]

Tornado warning just went up Pasco/Hernando.

That next feeder band about to rotate onshore has several spots of vorticity/rotation in it - so be on the lookout for spotty short-lived tornadoes in it.