ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[p1nheadlarry]

Negatively tilted trough approaching an intensifying hurricane at 240 hours.

That would spell doom for the East Coast

That is very similar to Hazel, correct? Not too many photos of weather maps lying around the internet from sixty years ago, but from the little I have seen that seemed to be a similar setup.

[gatorcane]

Animation from 0 to 240 hours of the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean run. This ought to wake up some GOM folks

[drezee]

Wow, the ensembles are saying hold on one minute...stop looking past day 5 on these Operationals...the pattern is evolving

[otowntiger]

Animation from 0 to 240 hours of the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean run. This ought to wake up some GOM folks

http://s13.postimg.org/4jcvl9gbr/92b2f8 ... e1c026.gif

Track wise, yes, but sure looks mighty weak there.

[OntarioEggplant]

Animation from 0 to 240 hours of the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean run. This ought to wake up some GOM folks

http://s13.postimg.org/4jcvl9gbr/92b2f8 ... e1c026.gif

Track wise, yes, but sure looks mighty weak there.

Those plots are averages of all ensembles. You cannot look at those for intensity.

[Alyono]

that's an ensemble mean. It is going to look weak. However, that's a strong signal from the ensembles

[USTropics]

Animation from 0 to 240 hours of the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean run. This ought to wake up some GOM folks

http://s13.postimg.org/4jcvl9gbr/92b2f8 ... e1c026.gif

Track wise, yes, but sure looks mighty weak there.

Those plots are averages of all ensembles. You cannot look at those for intensity.

That's correct, this is the ECMWF ensembles average (there are 50 members). This does not depict just one storm (like an operational run), but the average pressure of ~50 members (barring a few may not show development). The center here is the mean of the 50 members, but this is essentially an overlap of 50 individual pressure runs. If we had what looked like a stronger storm, it just means the ensembles are in really good agreement and concentrated together. There are a widespread of solutions at 240 hours on the EPS, but the majority of the members have most certainly shifted westward over the past 24 hours.

[AutoPenalti]

This is going to become a really close call for anyone in the gulf and carribean.

[Kazmit]

This looks like the worst track it could take for the US. Runs through Jamaica, Cuba, and then skirts South Florida and crashes into NC. Much more west than the GFS.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm starting to think we will know more within the next 48hrs. in terms of what model is correct with intensity.

The faster more bullish GFS, or the slower more gradual Euro...

[gatorcane]

So looks like the ECMWF ensemble mean and GFS ensemble mean are like 1200+ miles apart by day 10. GFS ensembles shift east and ECMWF ensembles shift west. Now there is some good consensus! By the way 18Z NAM is showing it moving WSW now also...

[Bocadude85]

So looks like the ECMWF ensemble mean and GFS ensemble mean are like 1200-1500 miles apart by day 10. GFS ensembles shift east and ECMWF ensembles shift west. Now there is some good consensus! By the way 18Z NAM is showing it moving WSW now also...

[img]

Was just about to post about the 18ZNAM, further southwest then the 12Z for sure. I wonder if the 18Z GFS will also shift SW?

[StormHunter72]

Looking a lot better for the Gulf coast. But Florida and East Coast still need to watch carefully.

From la to fl need to watch this

not at this point

[ronjon]

Ensemble runs suggest further westward shifts in the operational models.

[TheStormExpert]

I'd say anyone in or along the ENTIRE Eastern 2/3's of the Caribbean needs to watch future Matthew/97L. After that it could be a threat from the East Coast of the U.S.(including the East Coast of FL) all the way out to Bermuda.

[otowntiger]

Animation from 0 to 240 hours of the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean run. This ought to wake up some GOM folks

http://s13.postimg.org/4jcvl9gbr/92b2f8 ... e1c026.gif

Track wise, yes, but sure looks mighty weak there.

Those plots are averages of all ensembles. You cannot look at those for intensity.

ok, thanks.

[tolakram]

GFS 12z running.

[setexholmes]

Looking a lot better for the Gulf coast. But Florida and East Coast still need to watch carefully.

From la to fl need to watch this

not at this point

Yes at this point

[Evil Jeremy]

I can't much level of faith into the models five days out, let alone 7 or 10 days out, following Hermine. Granted, I know the circumstances are different, but the sting from Hermine still lingers. Right now, not much point in looking deeply into the models post-East Carib.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS ensembles with a Cleo track