ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

We are currently in a lull before Colin 's rainbands come in later today and tonight. I measured just under 2 inches already today during the first couple of bands that moved through earlier this morning. More heavy rain on the way. I also received a wind gust to 38 mph in a heavy band that moved through after 7 a.m. this morning.

Now, I am concerned about the potential of any daytime heating from now and the time the worst of Colin arrives after 3:00 today. If this happens, it will just add more fuel to the fire in agitating the atmosphere and potentially aid to the formation of tornadoes late today into tonight. Stay alert folks.

[StormHunter72]

Actually you could not be more wrong psyclone .

The same folks producing stuff like this are the one baffled by complacency. When the dust settles this will likely be another feather in a very big complacency cap for the bay area. I agree with those who have theorized that the convective blow up last night over the Yucatan really disrupted the system...the wheels seemed to really go off the rails shortly thereafter. and that convection continued to build south rather than get sucked into the system...it was very odd and quite interesting.

What, no reference to risk of Locusts and fire from the sky too??

Psyclone, I could'nt agree with you more. Problem is that this complacency likely stems from a combination of factors. Public readiness and awareness to risk IS important however not to the point where the general public stops believing that "the wolves are really out there". Local authroities should'nt exagerate forecast conditions, less risk of the general public stop listening to them. The process does however begin from the top down and echoing what I posted several times yesterday, I just would'nt have been so quick to upgrade this system. Look, those of us with a greater knowledge of meteorology can appreciate the localized risks associated with a squall line or even strong tropical wave. Amply warning the general public to these risks have always been a challange though. Just seems to me that a better warning system based on some color code would identify levels of risk to a given area. The moment that more defined labels like tornado watch, Tropical Storm Watch/Warning, Flood Warning, etc start getting mass distributed to everyone's cell phones and the news, followed by yet another experience where the vast majority of that population end up claiming that they did NOT experience such anticipated conditions.... well, you're dead right - The complacency factor will only continue and worsen.

School buses are on the roads right now with 50 mph gusts. You locust and fire comment is very uncalled for.

[chaser1]

Colin is about as poorly-organized as a storm could be. There's no core, only a broad area of 10-15kt winds well west of any convection. Convection is linear - it's not wrapping into a center. These are all signs of a highly-sheared system. As such, it probably wont change much before all the squalls move ashore this afternoon and this evening.

Still likely to be a significant weather event for a number of folks, but does seem to blur the lines when defining some of these systems.

[Steve]

Have received over 6 inches of rain at my house in Panama City so far.

I talked with one of my co-workers today who wanted to go home because of some water on Thomas Drive, her lawn flooding, the Lagoon rising and fear of not being able to get back home after work. The front stalled out and the moisture flowing up from the Gulf compounded. One run of the GFS the other day pretty much put the worst of the rainfall just west of Tallahassee. I'm not sure if that will or won't be the case, but she certainly corroborated what you are seeing. FWIW, she lives behind the Lagoon.
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As far as how Storm2k.org Active Tropics Forum did, here would be my 2 criticisms:

1) I think everyone wanting/begging/swearing that the center was relocating were off. The LLC center was the center, and it moved North for a while and is now bending toward the NE. It hasn't died out yet, and it may or may not be the main center on the other side of the state. Sometimes deep convection will pull a center in (physics) and sometimes not. Because it's happened before doesn't mean it will happen again exactly the same way if there are multiple possible outcomes.

2) Knocking intensification (it's falling apart!!!!) based on using Infrared at nighttime is about as taboo as it gets.

Good luck in the path and watch out for flooded roadways!

[gatorcane]

Large mass of heavy squalls heading in the general direction of SW Florida and lower keys:

[psyclone]

The ground is just soaking up the rain here. we were really parched in my neighborhood. the frogs are very happy.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking better than it did yesterday but the center is still exposed. Latest T number from SAB is 1.5 so be glad we have recon.

[caneman]

Irregardless of what the storm looks like, it is bringing 50 mph winds to the Tampa Bay area, tons of rain. Little manatee is expected to flood.high tide is coming in 1 hour.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Barely a drop of rain in Temple Terrace. Big Nothing so far hope it keeps...tho could use some rain!

[caneman]

Been getting hammered on the beaches, a lull right now.

[AdamFirst]

Irregardless of what the storm looks like, it is bringing 50 mph winds to the Tampa Bay area, tons of rain. Little manatee is expected to flood.high tide is coming in 1 hour.

About what was expected, really

[caneman]

Yep, it's no big deal. Just hope there isn't much flooding or storm surge. So far so good on tornadoes, hope that holds.

[AdamFirst]

Large mass of heavy squalls heading in the general direction of SW Florida and lower keys

Yep, finally looks like an eastward motion on that big train of rain. A lot of it too, as it stretches beyond radar range into Cuba.

South Florida is going to get wet in a few hours.

[drezee]

50 mph wind gusts along the coast near Venice, look at the temp, that's not from a squall.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=venf1

Gusted to 58kts (~66mph) last hour

MacDIll had a two-minute sustained wind of 40 mph (that is indeed a nice feeder band)

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMCF.html

[chaser1]

The same folks producing stuff like this are the one baffled by complacency. When the dust settles this will likely be another feather in a very big complacency cap for the bay area. I agree with those who have theorized that the convective blow up last night over the Yucatan really disrupted the system...the wheels seemed to really go off the rails shortly thereafter. and that convection continued to build south rather than get sucked into the system...it was very odd and quite interesting.

What, no reference to risk of Locusts and fire from the sky too??

Psyclone, I could'nt agree with you more. Problem is that this complacency likely stems from a combination of factors. Public readiness and awareness to risk IS important however not to the point where the general public stops believing that "the wolves are really out there". Local authroities should'nt exagerate forecast conditions, less risk of the general public stop listening to them. The process does however begin from the top down and echoing what I posted several times yesterday, I just would'nt have been so quick to upgrade this system. Look, those of us with a greater knowledge of meteorology can appreciate the localized risks associated with a squall line or even strong tropical wave. Amply warning the general public to these risks have always been a challange though. Just seems to me that a better warning system based on some color code would identify levels of risk to a given area. The moment that more defined labels like tornado watch, Tropical Storm Watch/Warning, Flood Warning, etc start getting mass distributed to everyone's cell phones and the news, followed by yet another experience where the vast majority of that population end up claiming that they did NOT experience such anticipated conditions.... well, you're dead right - The complacency factor will only continue and worsen.

School buses are on the roads right now with 50 mph gusts. You locust and fire comment is very uncalled for.

For starters, it would seem prudent to NOT risk students or other drivers by driving during such conditions. Proper planning should provide for a solution to permit buses to leave prior to the arrival of such conditions, or following the threat when such conditions might appear to be improving. I appologize for the reference to locusts and fire however, given that those conditions truly are even less likely than the 70mph gusts referenced in that locally distributed memo.

[tolakram]

15 frame loop, speed it up. i can;t tell if the spin closer to the big bend area is an illusion or part of a more vigorous circulation.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=750&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

[AdamFirst]

15 frame loop, speed it up. i can;t tell if the spin closer to the big bend area is an illusion or part of a more vigorous circulation.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=750&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

IMO, it feels like the broad turning west of Tampa/St. Pete is still your dominant circulation.

[tropicwatch]

15 frame loop, speed it up. i can;t tell if the spin closer to the big bend area is an illusion or part of a more vigorous circulation.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=750&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

Possibly an eddy forming. Here are current storm tracks for that area.

[AdamFirst]

It could also be similar to that mid-level spin that was seen on satellite yesterday afternoon just off the Yucatan Peninsula

[gatorcane]

Large mass of heavy squalls heading in the general direction of SW Florida and lower keys

Yep, finally looks like an eastward motion on that big train of rain. A lot of it too, as it stretches beyond radar range into Cuba.

South Florida is going to get wet in a few hours.

Looks like South Florida is getting a little sun peaking through the cirrus cloud canopy here and there. Watch out later with daytime heating and that energy rotating to the NE around the SE side of Colin especially if a seabreeze attempts to develop

Don't forget that South Florida will likely see a ton of rain much of this week even once Colin is out of the picture due to a stalled frontal boundary that looks to setup so things are just cranking up here as far as rain for South Florida and the potential for strong/severe storms.