ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

This could well be a hurricane threat to south FL and a major hurricane threat to the mid Gulf Coast. More EC ensembles are on-board with development and most indicate a track into the Gulf. Final landfall may be around next Tuesday night, quite possibly west of the FL Panhandle and east of Houston (I hope). I guess I'll have to cancel my vacation days for this Thu/Fri. I knew 2 weeks ago when I scheduled them that I'd make the tropics come alive in doing so. It always happens...

[NDG]

This could well be a hurricane threat to south FL and a major hurricane threat to the mid Gulf Coast. More EC ensembles are on-board with development and most indicate a track into the Gulf. Final landfall may be around next Tuesday night, quite possibly west of the FL Panhandle and east of Houston (I hope). I guess I'll have to cancel my vacation days for this Thu/Fri. I knew 2 weeks ago when I scheduled them that I'd make the tropics come alive in doing so. It always happens...

Vacation during the heart of the hurricane season with a cool neutral Enso?
Thank you for your input as always.

[Hurrilurker]

If this thing makes it to a TS in the next couple days, the S. Florida freakout will begin. Maybe it won't in fact develop and maybe Hispaniola is going to kill it, but all I know is the last few sat frames, it looks like it's starting to get itself together and I wouldn't sleep on it.

[Frank2]

Here's the Antigua/Barbua radar, but what's wrong (right) with this motion - south of west:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ag/national/weather-radar

[SunnyThoughts]

This could well be a hurricane threat to south FL and a major hurricane threat to the mid Gulf Coast. More EC ensembles are on-board with development and most indicate a track into the Gulf. Final landfall may be around next Tuesday night, quite possibly west of the FL Panhandle and east of Houston (I hope). I guess I'll have to cancel my vacation days for this Thu/Fri. I knew 2 weeks ago when I scheduled them that I'd make the tropics come alive in doing so. It always happens...

So you don't think the ridge has a weakness at all to make the system turn more northward until farther west in the Gulf? PS sorry about the vacation

[BobHarlem]

Here's the Antigua/Barbua radar, but what's wrong (right) with this motion - south of west:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ag/national/weather-radar

Longer term radar from the Antilles http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?214

[SoupBone]

This could well be a hurricane threat to south FL and a major hurricane threat to the mid Gulf Coast. More EC ensembles are on-board with development and most indicate a track into the Gulf. Final landfall may be around next Tuesday night, quite possibly west of the FL Panhandle and east of Houston (I hope). I guess I'll have to cancel my vacation days for this Thu/Fri. I knew 2 weeks ago when I scheduled them that I'd make the tropics come alive in doing so. It always happens...

So you don't think the ridge has a weakness at all to make the system turn more northward until farther west in the Gulf? PS sorry about the vacation

I thought earlier today, one of the models was showing s light weakness allowing a more straight shot across Florida turning north?

[floridasun78]

so look wont weakness in high was we some time this part summer look want stay strong for next few days and look like shear want now drop north islands and dry air take wx Vacation ran way if this ture i dont like what i see with hot water in that area i here in Miami i saw Andrew grow up into cat 4 that area

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.

[msbee]

Yellow alert have been activated for the Northern Leewards ( Sint Marteen and Sint Barth) for a risk of strong showers and tstorms given our pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

Thanks Gusty I saw that. Butwhy no yellow alert for Guadeloupe?

[USTropics]

the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is even further west than the operational run in the long-term. In fact, a large majority of the ensemble guidance (ECMWF, GFS, CMC ensembles) shifted west. It's hard to nail down an exact forecast that far out, but following the trend of the ensembles, it's currently west with increasing chances of development:

12z ECMWF:


18z GFS:


12z CMC:

[perk]

This could well be a hurricane threat to south FL and a major hurricane threat to the mid Gulf Coast. More EC ensembles are on-board with development and most indicate a track into the Gulf. Final landfall may be around next Tuesday night, quite possibly west of the FL Panhandle and east of Houston (I hope). I guess I'll have to cancel my vacation days for this Thu/Fri. I knew 2 weeks ago when I scheduled them that I'd make the tropics come alive in doing so. It always happens...

wxman57 you don't sound too sure that 99L won't get as far west as the Houston/Galveston area.

[Steve]

Best advice I have for anyone worried about a potential 2nd landfall is follow the upper air charts and not just the surface or 850mb runs as new model runs come out. We have increasingly good skill across the board within 5 days getting better as the timeframe shortens. It's not 100%, but we've all seen the spaghetti plots come together in that 3 day timeframe or so. Here's my take for now:

If the ECMWF (it's a long 7 hours away) sticks with development/organization within the next 24 hours followed by a SE FL landfall, and if that earlier organization/intensification occurs, I'd be ready to go with its solution through Saturday or so. By Friday or Saturday we should have a good idea who, if anyone, will be under the gun early next week. I still like FL because east of here is a hotspot in my seasonal prediction. But I'm not sold.

[msbee]

FYI, Meteo FR radar from Guadeloupe/Martinque
http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

[deltadog03]

Call map #2. Please come by and like my page for more info and a better write up. Thanks!
https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/

[Kingarabian]

The IR simulation from the Euro for 99L at its peak is downright scary.

[Blown Away]

Hispaniola to the rescue based on 8pm update...

[Nederlander]

Hispaniola to the rescue based on 8pm update...

It depends on where it crosses Hispaniola. I believe eastern Hisp. is relatively flat compared to central/western portions of the island. Certainly looks like it could play a role one way or the other. Time will tell..

[Bocadude85]

The IR simulation from the Euro for 99L at its peak is downright scary.

Link?

[SeGaBob]

I don't think Hispaniola is a big issue at this point... NHC doesn't mention that either.

[cycloneye]

Increasing dvorak numbers.

23/2345 UTC 15.9N 58.1W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic