ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Steve]

Point being the EURO is now on board with development and with that rocket fuel in the Bahamas this year 99L now has my full attention. Just 1 run so we shall see folks

That's a 180 from what you said yesterday, but to also be fair you made it clear you were following the Euro.

Bastardi didn't really add any insight on his weekend summary. He said the gfs showed split energy (some in Bahamas some south of MS) that was the result of it not being able to resolve the conflicts of all that was going on in the same general area.

[BobHarlem]

Ok Euro, Daytona as a strong TS/low end cane, then New Orleans straight on from the east as a cane?

[p1nheadlarry]

Ok Euro, Daytona as a strong TS/low end cane, then New Orleans straight on from the east as a cane?

That or Mobile/Gulfport a la Erin

[JaxGator]

Starting to bend W to WNW. For now.

[Steve]

Ok Euro, Daytona as a strong TS/low end cane, then New Orleans straight on from the east as a cane?

Somebody said weakening. Might or might not be the case but getting way out in time though, so ? ? ?

[SFLcane]

Point being the EURO is now on board with development and with that rocket fuel in the Bahamas this year 99L now has my full attention. Just 1 run so we shall see folks

That's a 180 from what you said yesterday, but to also be fair you made it clear you were following the Euro.

Bastardi didn't really add any insight on his weekend summary. He said the gfs showed split energy (some in Bahamas some south of MS) that was the result of it not being able to resolve the conflicts of all that was going on in the same general area.

Now that the euro has picked up on it and that extremely warm waters near the Florida coast it's got my full attention now. In terms of Genesis yes having the euro on board is always a good thing. BUT it's just 1 run though.

[JaxGator]

Point being the EURO is now on board with development and with that rocket fuel in the Bahamas this year 99L now has my full attention. Just 1 run so we shall see folks

That's a 180 from what you said yesterday, but to also be fair you made it clear you were following the Euro.

Bastardi didn't really add any insight on his weekend summary. He said the gfs showed split energy (some in Bahamas some south of MS) that was the result of it not being able to resolve the conflicts of all that was going on in the same general area.

Now that the euro has picked up on it and that extremely warm waters near the Florida coast it's got my full attention now. In terms of Genesis yes having the euro on board is always a good thing. BUT it's just 1 run though.

True, but it's a start.

[AutoPenalti]

We might even see some deepening the next couple of runs, once it gets it's act together. Look at those SST's near the Bahamas.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/conto ... ant.cf.gif

[Weatherboy1]

I think the important thing here is the trend toward stronger ridging along the east coast. It's way too early to say where a system would hit or exactly how strong it will possibly be. But if another 2-3 global model cycles continue to show EC ridging then someone will likely have to deal with "Gaston" down the road in FL or the SE US

[BobHarlem]

Ok Euro, Daytona as a strong TS/low end cane, then New Orleans straight on from the east as a cane?

That or Mobile/Gulfport a la Erin

Yeah that run basically rakes central Florida and the entire Northern Gulf coastline.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I think the important thing here is the trend toward stronger ridging along the east coast. It's way too early to say where a system would hit or exactly how strong it will possibly be. But if another 2-3 global model cycles continue to show EC ridging then someone will likely have to deal with "Gaston" down the road in FL or the SE US

Maybe Hermine? LOL I think that might be the bigger question now.

[CrazyC83]

Strong TS/minimal Hurricane @ 216hrs. south of Apalachicola, Florida.

With that strong ridge, if it gets in the Gulf, I could see it even slipping farther south...that ridge isn't going to let it go north of 30-31N. If it drops south in the Gulf it could become a very dangerous hurricane (probably en route to Texas) without the land interaction and continental dry air.

[chaser1]

Ok ok ok just one run but I think it's time to pay a little closer attention.

yo-yo much? LOL

[Blown Away]

Huge timing difference between 12z GFS/Euro... GFS has 99L near N Bahamas @234 hours and Euro @168... 2.5 day difference...

[blp]

My take away is the Euro is picking up a strong blocking ridge. I have always thought it was the best at picking up the steering patterns. Plenty of time to watch. This just confirms whatever gets in the Bahamas will get blocked at some point. Usually the Euro starts the charge leading other models in this direction so expect more West shifts.

[PTrackerLA]

Strong TS/minimal Hurricane @ 216hrs. south of Apalachicola, Florida.



With that strong ridge, if it gets in the Gulf, I could see it even slipping farther south...that ridge isn't going to let it go north of 30-31N. If it drops south in the Gulf it could become a very dangerous hurricane (probably en route to Texas) without the land interaction and continental dry air.

I agree if the Euro has the right on idea on this ridging I could easily see this further south and going further West in the gulf. We can't handle anything even close to us in Louisiana right now so I'll be watching the trends very closely.

[chaser1]

I think the important thing here is the trend toward stronger ridging along the east coast. It's way too early to say where a system would hit or exactly how strong it will possibly be. But if another 2-3 global model cycles continue to show EC ridging then someone will likely have to deal with "Gaston" down the road in FL or the SE US

Maybe Hermine? LOL I think that might be the bigger question now.

Good point and I agree, I think it'll be Hermine that'll be paying a visit while Gaston might well be on some trans-Atlantic cruise

[Steve]

My take away is the Euro is picking up a strong blocking ridge. I have always thought it was the best at picking up the steering patterns. Plenty of time to watch. This just confirms whatever gets in the Bahamas will get blocked at some point. Usually the Euro starts the charge leading other models in this direction so expect more West shifts.

Agreed with the caution that it occasionally overdoes ridging in the West Atlantic/SEUS.

[Blown Away]

[/quote]
12Z GFS at 234 Hours...


12z Euro at 240 Hours..

Huge timing difference...

[blp]

Take a look at the Ukmet. Shows the ridge in place with the West turn. What is unique it that appears to merge Fiona with 99l and shows what looks a strong system very interesting.