ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

looking at the future of Hermine, I hope this doesn't pull an Agnes 1972 but the possibility is there

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[Nimbus]

I know everyone's talking about Florida and NC, but is anyone paying attention to the fact that the NHC is completely ignoring the Euro's and GFS's redevelopment of the cyclone into a full blown strong tropical storm or Cat. 1 after it exits NC/Southern VA? They're continuing to pit it as extratropical after exiting the states, yet both models are in almost complete agreement on redevelopment from a hybrid storm into a fully tropical cyclone again, and a strong one at that. Are they simply being conservative as they normally are or what? It's rare for the two to agree, on formation, intensification, and pressures, yet here they are harmoniously similar.

But the winds on that side of the storm will be weak and she will be moving away from the coast.

[TheStormExpert]

Well, it looks like Florida's lucky hurricane-free streak for the past 10+ years is about to end within the next hour or so. It couldn't last forever.

Praying and hoping everyone stays safe and makes it through Hermine safely, this could be a heck of a ride for many Floridians!

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020403
AF304 1409A HERMINE HDOB 34 20160902
035330 2950N 08422W 8425 01385 9866 +195 +180 318017 019 029 001 00
035400 2948N 08423W 8428 01386 9871 +190 +187 312021 022 033 001 00
035430 2947N 08424W 8428 01390 //// +186 //// 310022 023 033 001 01
035500 2946N 08425W 8433 01389 //// +187 //// 310027 028 034 002 01
035530 2945N 08426W 8426 01402 //// +185 //// 308030 031 035 002 01
035600 2943N 08427W 8434 01400 9901 +185 +183 309031 033 034 002 01
035630 2942N 08429W 8429 01410 9904 +186 +182 312031 033 033 002 00
035700 2942N 08430W 8432 01411 9908 +187 +182 312030 031 033 001 00
035730 2941N 08432W 8429 01420 9914 +184 +182 316029 029 030 002 00
035800 2940N 08434W 8430 01423 //// +180 //// 324029 030 032 002 01
035830 2940N 08435W 8429 01427 //// +180 //// 331029 029 031 003 01
035900 2939N 08437W 8429 01434 //// +178 //// 339029 029 033 004 01
035930 2939N 08439W 8429 01436 9945 +181 //// 344029 030 034 004 01
040000 2938N 08440W 8431 01438 9955 +178 +178 349031 032 033 006 00
040030 2938N 08442W 8429 01444 9964 +176 +176 353033 036 033 013 00
040100 2937N 08444W 8429 01446 9970 +172 +172 358040 043 035 013 00
040130 2937N 08446W 8430 01450 9976 +170 +170 001045 046 037 013 00
040200 2936N 08448W 8433 01451 9982 +168 +168 359048 050 041 015 00
040230 2936N 08449W 8425 01463 9987 +170 +170 358045 047 041 018 00
040300 2935N 08451W 8426 01465 9991 +167 //// 349041 042 039 019 01
$$
;

[northjaxpro]

Well, it looks like Florida's lucky hurricane-free streak for the past 10+ years is about to end within the next hour or so. It couldn't last forever.

Praying and hoping everyone stays safe and makes it through Hermine safely, this could be a heck of a ride for many Floridians!

[SeGaBob]

Still not sure about that 4-8 inches...

[BRweather]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092016
A. 02/03:51:20Z
B. 29 deg 53 min N
084 deg 15 min W
C. 850 mb 1296 m
D. 48 kt
E. 102 deg 17 nm
F. 199 deg 58 kt
G. 102 deg 19 nm
H. 984 mb
I. 18 C / 1527 m
J. 20 C / 1528 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF304 1409A HERMINE OB 24
MAX FL WIND 90 KT 120 / 30 NM 02:49:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 315 / 15 KT

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020403
AF304 1409A HERMINE HDOB 34 20160902
035330 2950N 08422W 8425 01385 9866 +195 +180 318017 019 029 001 00
035400 2948N 08423W 8428 01386 9871 +190 +187 312021 022 033 001 00
035430 2947N 08424W 8428 01390 //// +186 //// 310022 023 033 001 01
035500 2946N 08425W 8433 01389 //// +187 //// 310027 028 034 002 01
035530 2945N 08426W 8426 01402 //// +185 //// 308030 031 035 002 01
035600 2943N 08427W 8434 01400 9901 +185 +183 309031 033 034 002 01
035630 2942N 08429W 8429 01410 9904 +186 +182 312031 033 033 002 00
035700 2942N 08430W 8432 01411 9908 +187 +182 312030 031 033 001 00
035730 2941N 08432W 8429 01420 9914 +184 +182 316029 029 030 002 00
035800 2940N 08434W 8430 01423 //// +180 //// 324029 030 032 002 01
035830 2940N 08435W 8429 01427 //// +180 //// 331029 029 031 003 01
035900 2939N 08437W 8429 01434 //// +178 //// 339029 029 033 004 01
035930 2939N 08439W 8429 01436 9945 +181 //// 344029 030 034 004 01
040000 2938N 08440W 8431 01438 9955 +178 +178 349031 032 033 006 00
040030 2938N 08442W 8429 01444 9964 +176 +176 353033 036 033 013 00
040100 2937N 08444W 8429 01446 9970 +172 +172 358040 043 035 013 00
040130 2937N 08446W 8430 01450 9976 +170 +170 001045 046 037 013 00
040200 2936N 08448W 8433 01451 9982 +168 +168 359048 050 041 015 00
040230 2936N 08449W 8425 01463 9987 +170 +170 358045 047 041 018 00
040300 2935N 08451W 8426 01465 9991 +167 //// 349041 042 039 019 01
$$
;

[northjaxpro]

Well, it looks like Florida's lucky hurricane-free streak for the past 10+ years is about to end within the next hour or so. It couldn't last forever.

Praying and hoping everyone stays safe and makes it through Hermine safely, this could be a heck of a ride for many Floridians!

This is very true. Thankfully Hermine did not become a major hurricane. Still Wilma is the last major tropical cyclone over Florida since 2005. But, yes, Hermine FINALLY ended the overall long cane drought for sure for the peninsula.

[N2FSU]

Winds are really howling here in Tallahassee now. Eyewall looks like it's entering the outskirts of the city.

[ConvergenceZone]

Now that we know it's completely done strengthening, we can probably at last sleep better and hope that it doesn't flood too much as it moves up the east coast.

[Nimbus]

The velocity vectors aimed at Pinellas are beginning to shorten hope Tallahassee has better luck than Cedar Key and the nature coast, I'm going to rest for a while.

[JaxGator]

Worrying reports coming out of Cedar Key as shown by Mark's webcam there. Meanwhile, the winds have picked up a lot here and half of the Vilano Beach Bridge's lights are out for some reason.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like Tallahassee will be in an intense squall/pseudo northern eyewall very soon. I may have been wrong when I thought they had dodged the bullet earlier. I'd imagine gusts to at least 70mph will be possibly shortly.

[Evil Jeremy]

The big band starting in North Florida, extending out into the Gulf and bringing in plenty of moisture, is going to be killer. Gainesville feeling it, Tampa about to feel it. Next band about to roll through Jacksonville, shouldn't let up until sunrise.

[northjaxpro]

Winds are really howling here in Tallahassee now. Eyewall looks like it's entering the outskirts of the city.

The northern eyewall is literally just southeast of the city right now. The eye itself is still just offshore near Saint Marks. I think the eye should come completely ashore in the next hour.

[northjaxpro]

The big band starting in North Florida, extending out into the Gulf and bringing in plenty of moisture, is going to be killer. Gainesville feeling it, Tampa about to feel it. Next band about to roll through Jacksonville, shouldn't let up until sunrise.

Yep. Watching that spiral band very closely. Could see more pop up.tornadoes with that band.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020423
AF304 1409A HERMINE HDOB 36 20160902
041330 2921N 08526W 8427 01520 //// +153 //// 333029 030 025 003 01
041400 2920N 08528W 8432 01518 //// +161 //// 326034 036 027 002 01
041430 2919N 08529W 8424 01524 //// +166 //// 331036 037 024 002 01
041500 2919N 08531W 8431 01520 //// +161 //// 334033 034 022 003 01
041530 2918N 08533W 8436 01517 //// +160 //// 336034 035 021 003 05
041600 2917N 08533W 8423 01532 //// +161 //// 331037 038 /// /// 05
041630 2915N 08532W 8433 01524 //// +161 //// 327036 038 /// /// 05
041700 2916N 08530W 8441 01512 0045 +164 +163 328032 034 025 001 01
041730 2917N 08529W 8424 01527 //// +161 //// 323032 033 024 003 01
041800 2917N 08527W 8429 01522 //// +162 //// 323033 034 023 003 01
041830 2918N 08526W 8432 01516 0038 +163 +163 321032 036 025 003 01
041900 2919N 08525W 8426 01522 //// +145 //// 331029 031 025 003 01
041930 2920N 08523W 8429 01518 //// +147 //// 332029 030 026 004 01
042000 2921N 08522W 8429 01516 0050 +159 //// 334030 031 027 003 01
042030 2922N 08521W 8429 01514 //// +148 //// 335031 031 028 003 01
042100 2923N 08519W 8430 01512 //// +160 //// 336032 033 031 003 01
042130 2924N 08518W 8430 01511 //// +159 //// 337034 034 031 002 01
042200 2925N 08517W 8429 01508 //// +165 //// 336034 035 033 002 01
042230 2926N 08515W 8430 01507 0026 +167 +166 331035 035 028 003 01
042300 2927N 08514W 8431 01506 0023 +172 +163 330035 036 031 001 00
$$
;

[thundercam96]

Will those bands eventually move over Daytona Beach tomorrow AM?

[Orlando]

This twitter person is still better than the webcam. She is providing video of the town, and she is updating with video every few minutes.

https://twitter.com/Heather_Lacy1

She is a journalist.