ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

Looks like South Florida is getting a little sun peaking through the cirrus cloud canopy here and there. Watch out later with daytime heating and that energy rotating to the NE around the SE side of Colin especially if a seabreeze attempts to develop .

Yep, as I was walking back from class the sun managed to break through for a bit. It's definitely warm out there.

[pgoss11]

Just wondering what thoughts are of Colin holding together while he crosses Florida/Georgia tonight? I know sometimes these weaker storms are sometimes not as affected by land mass as the stronger systems and sometimes the friction of land mass actually can help keep the storm together. What are some of the mets thought on this as Colin exits into the Atlantic tomorrow morning?

[psyclone]

Looks like only light to moderate rain with occasional breaks is on the docket for the Tampa bay area for the next couple of hours at least (things can always change quickly). the best convection (outside of the band now moving east of Tampa) is the action nearing the Keys and far southwest fl. the sky has brightened here and winds are back under 10mph.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061631
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 04 20160606
162130 3027N 08840W 6161 04187 0085 +027 +007 281017 018 /// /// 03
162200 3025N 08840W 6166 04181 0080 +030 +004 269020 020 /// /// 03
162230 3023N 08840W 6171 04174 0079 +032 +005 268018 020 /// /// 03
162300 3020N 08840W 6164 04182 0079 +031 +006 273016 017 /// /// 03
162330 3018N 08840W 6165 04181 0072 +035 +007 270013 014 /// /// 03
162400 3016N 08840W 6167 04180 0078 +030 +014 266012 013 /// /// 03
162430 3014N 08840W 6166 04181 0077 +031 +023 264008 010 /// /// 03
162500 3011N 08840W 6166 04181 0075 +031 +026 269007 007 /// /// 03
162530 3009N 08840W 6164 04184 0077 +033 +022 265008 008 /// /// 03
162600 3007N 08840W 6163 04186 0077 +031 +020 268009 010 /// /// 03
162630 3005N 08841W 6164 04186 0083 +031 +018 269010 011 008 000 03
162700 3002N 08841W 6164 04185 0073 +035 +022 253013 014 009 000 03
162730 3000N 08841W 6164 04185 0075 +033 +023 259013 014 008 000 00
162800 2958N 08841W 6163 04186 0076 +030 +023 259014 014 007 000 03
162830 2956N 08841W 6163 04186 0076 +030 +022 253014 014 010 000 03
162900 2953N 08841W 6164 04185 0077 +033 +018 249014 015 009 000 03
162930 2951N 08841W 6163 04187 0076 +035 +012 246016 017 010 000 00
163000 2949N 08841W 6163 04188 0071 +036 +013 239016 017 010 000 00
163030 2947N 08841W 6163 04187 0070 +038 +011 238016 016 010 000 00
163100 2945N 08841W 6062 04297 0045 +030 +006 238017 020 010 000 03
$$
;

Plane en route. It's a pretty short flight.

[SeGaBob]

Seems to me the heaviest rain is off to the west and not coming this way. I don't really see how we get 3-6 inches like NWS is calling for. Areas outside of the Flash Flood Watch may get more it seems.

[psyclone]

Just wondering what thoughts are of Colin holding together while he crosses Florida/Georgia tonight? I know sometimes these weaker storms are sometimes not as affected by land mass as the stronger systems and sometimes the friction of land mass actually can help keep the storm together. What are some of the mets thought on this as Colin exits into the Atlantic tomorrow morning?

My advice would be to forget the center and resort to blob watching.

[gatorcane]

Looks like only light to moderate rain with occasional breaks is on the docket for the Tampa bay area for the next couple of hours at least (things can always change quickly). the best convection (outside of the band now moving east of Tampa) is the action nearing the Keys and far southwest fl. the sky has brightened here and winds are back under 10mph.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The area off the SW coast of Florida and approaching the lower Keys looks more interesting at least at the moment. St. Pete/Clearwater seems to be in a lull though another area is just offshore the mouth of Tampa Bay.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061641
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 05 20160606
163130 2943N 08841W 5791 04668 0032 +014 -006 224021 022 010 000 00
163200 2941N 08841W 5687 04830 0054 +001 -011 220020 020 011 000 00
163230 2939N 08841W 5681 04844 0059 +001 -011 228021 021 009 000 03
163300 2936N 08841W 5687 04841 0060 +005 -011 231020 021 010 000 00
163330 2934N 08841W 5689 04841 0057 +008 -013 229020 021 008 000 03
163400 2932N 08841W 5689 04842 0063 +005 -012 232018 019 010 000 03
163430 2929N 08841W 5689 04843 0068 +002 -010 229017 019 011 000 00
163500 2927N 08841W 5689 04838 0064 +003 -009 228019 019 012 000 00
163530 2924N 08841W 5689 04837 0058 +005 -011 228019 019 008 000 03
163600 2922N 08841W 5688 04838 0059 +004 -013 230020 021 010 000 03
163630 2920N 08842W 5690 04834 0058 +005 -013 232023 023 011 000 00
163700 2917N 08842W 5688 04838 0054 +007 -012 233022 023 010 000 03
163730 2915N 08842W 5689 04837 0050 +010 -015 230020 022 007 000 03
163800 2913N 08842W 5688 04838 0050 +010 -013 229020 020 007 000 03
163830 2910N 08842W 5689 04836 0051 +009 -012 224020 022 008 000 03
163900 2908N 08842W 5689 04836 0049 +010 -014 221022 023 008 000 03
163930 2906N 08842W 5689 04837 0049 +009 -015 219021 022 009 000 03
164000 2903N 08842W 5687 04840 0051 +007 -016 219020 021 010 000 00
164030 2901N 08842W 5689 04835 0050 +007 -017 220020 020 012 000 00
164100 2859N 08842W 5690 04834 0051 +005 -014 223021 021 012 000 00
$$
;

[jlauderdal]

radar starting to pop in SE FL...its trying to get going..hx 99 with mostly cloudy skies, thats not easy to do..dp is 77

[Sanibel]

We are in the middle of a roofing job on my house with 3/4's of the tin off. The roofers placed an adhesive-backed roll on the stripped portions that is shingle-layered to make it waterproof. So far it is holding. We had light rain last night but not too bad. There was one squall line that was only 15 minutes or less and not as heavy as it could have been. It did rain for hours though, even if lightly.

The rain line is just offshore and missing us but it is currently propagating towards us. Keeping fingers crossed. Could be much worse with intense tropical deluges for 24 hours. Windy.

Key West radar shows we won't dodge it.

[StormHunter72]

What, no reference to risk of Locusts and fire from the sky too??

Psyclone, I could'nt agree with you more. Problem is that this complacency likely stems from a combination of factors. Public readiness and awareness to risk IS important however not to the point where the general public stops believing that "the wolves are really out there". Local authroities should'nt exagerate forecast conditions, less risk of the general public stop listening to them. The process does however begin from the top down and echoing what I posted several times yesterday, I just would'nt have been so quick to upgrade this system. Look, those of us with a greater knowledge of meteorology can appreciate the localized risks associated with a squall line or even strong tropical wave. Amply warning the general public to these risks have always been a challange though. Just seems to me that a better warning system based on some color code would identify levels of risk to a given area. The moment that more defined labels like tornado watch, Tropical Storm Watch/Warning, Flood Warning, etc start getting mass distributed to everyone's cell phones and the news, followed by yet another experience where the vast majority of that population end up claiming that they did NOT experience such anticipated conditions.... well, you're dead right - The complacency factor will only continue and worsen.

School buses are on the roads right now with 50 mph gusts. You locust and fire comment is very uncalled for.

For starters, it would seem prudent to NOT risk students or other drivers by driving during such conditions. Proper planning should provide for a solution to permit buses to leave prior to the arrival of such conditions, or following the threat when such conditions might appear to be improving. I appologize for the reference to locusts and fire however, given that those conditions truly are even less likely than the 70mph gusts referenced in that locally distributed memo.

12 miles less an hour is splitting hairs. Gusts to 58 mph locally

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061651
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 06 20160606
164130 2856N 08842W 5687 04837 0056 +005 -013 221021 021 010 000 00
164200 2854N 08842W 5689 04832 0054 +005 -014 218021 022 009 000 03
164230 2852N 08840W 5688 04835 0051 +005 -016 212024 024 008 000 00
164300 2851N 08838W 5689 04834 0050 +009 -019 208023 024 010 000 03
164330 2850N 08835W 5688 04835 0046 +010 -022 213023 023 011 000 00
164400 2849N 08833W 5688 04837 0040 +013 -026 218023 023 011 000 03
164430 2848N 08830W 5689 04835 0042 +013 -026 226023 023 013 000 00
164500 2847N 08827W 5690 04834 0050 +009 -015 229023 023 012 000 00
164530 2847N 08827W 5690 04834 0051 +005 -010 225023 023 011 000 00
164600 2845N 08822W 5698 04823 0047 +010 -011 223022 023 010 000 00
164630 2844N 08820W 5697 04820 0033 +015 -014 225020 021 009 000 00
164700 2843N 08818W 5688 04828 0031 +015 -014 227020 020 005 000 00
164730 2842N 08816W 5689 04827 0032 +010 -014 230018 020 007 000 00
164800 2841N 08814W 5689 04827 0031 +010 -010 230018 019 007 001 00
164830 2840N 08812W 5688 04827 0031 +012 -009 231017 019 007 000 00
164900 2840N 08810W 5689 04826 0031 +012 -012 229014 015 005 000 00
164930 2839N 08808W 5689 04824 0028 +011 -001 224014 015 005 000 03
165000 2838N 08805W 5689 04826 0028 +012 -003 219016 016 007 000 03
165030 2837N 08803W 5688 04826 0027 +013 -006 220015 016 005 000 00
165100 2836N 08801W 5688 04824 0028 +012 -009 220014 016 007 000 03
$$
;

[chaser1]

15 frame loop, speed it up. i can;t tell if the spin closer to the big bend area is an illusion or part of a more vigorous circulation.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=750&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

Yep, I see that area of turning too. I'm thinking mid level, but jeez.. who knows? LOL Staring at the loop, my eyes begin to go wonky searching for "a center" amidst the different points of vorticity. My guess is that the broad low level "mean" center appears to be stretched NNE/SSW. I can plainly see the point where NHC established the main center of circulation and that entire broad low level low appears to me at least, to be moving a good deal more eastward with low level clouds appearing to possibly be tightening up at a point a bit south of the official position at about 26.0 north. This moves it a bit closer to where I think a dominant MLC might be around 26.0 & 85.0. Granted, thats just my own speculation but I'm sticking with assumption that this is where a center will reform by tonight. If that were to happen, then I'm guessing this would delay or extend the effects of this system for at least 6 - 12 hours.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Temple Terrace just got a nice Band 30 minutes ago!! Winds sustained 40 for over 5 minutes. Now the sun is out

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061701
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 07 20160606
165130 2835N 08759W 5689 04824 0030 +012 -014 214013 013 005 000 00
165200 2834N 08757W 5688 04826 0029 +010 -013 211013 013 006 000 00
165230 2834N 08755W 5689 04824 0036 +010 -012 210013 013 007 000 00
165300 2833N 08753W 5688 04823 0031 +010 -007 216015 016 004 000 00
165330 2832N 08751W 5689 04819 0023 +010 -003 214017 017 004 000 00
165400 2831N 08749W 5689 04819 0022 +012 -005 212018 018 004 000 00
165430 2830N 08747W 5688 04821 0020 +015 -008 209016 018 005 000 00
165500 2829N 08745W 5689 04819 0022 +015 -007 205015 015 007 000 00
165530 2829N 08743W 5689 04819 0021 +015 -008 210015 015 005 000 00
165600 2828N 08741W 5689 04817 0020 +015 -007 211016 016 005 000 00
165630 2827N 08739W 5688 04819 0020 +015 -006 212016 017 005 000 00
165700 2826N 08737W 5688 04819 0020 +015 -007 212016 017 006 000 00
165730 2825N 08735W 5688 04819 0006 +020 -010 209017 017 006 000 00
165800 2824N 08733W 5689 04818 0009 +020 -009 211017 017 007 001 00
165830 2823N 08731W 5688 04819 0013 +020 -011 212016 016 008 001 00
165900 2823N 08729W 5689 04819 0013 +020 -014 216015 016 008 000 03
165930 2822N 08727W 5688 04819 0010 +020 -015 218015 015 008 000 00
170000 2821N 08725W 5689 04817 0003 +020 -016 222014 015 007 000 00
170030 2820N 08723W 5689 04817 0003 +023 -018 225014 015 008 000 03
170100 2819N 08721W 5688 04818 9996 +025 -022 233013 014 010 000 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

[CrazyC83]

00
URNT15 KNHC 061711
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 08 20160606
170130 2817N 08720W 5689 04817 9996 +025 -022 236012 013 010 000 00
170200 2816N 08719W 5689 04817 9999 +025 -022 236013 013 009 000 00
170230 2814N 08717W 5726 04763 9997 +029 -020 237013 013 010 000 00
170300 2813N 08716W 5716 04779 9997 +026 -022 241014 015 015 001 00
170330 2811N 08715W 5730 04768 0014 +028 -014 245015 016 009 002 03
170400 2809N 08713W 5998 04411 0029 +048 +006 240011 012 /// /// 03
170430 2808N 08712W 6243 04083 0039 +064 +027 247012 013 /// /// 03
170500 2806N 08711W 6498 03752 0046 +080 +043 265016 017 /// /// 03
170530 2804N 08709W 6754 03432 0055 +092 +059 274017 018 /// /// 03
170600 2802N 08708W 7003 03130 0055 +110 +075 266015 016 /// /// 03
170630 2801N 08706W 7250 02838 0059 +123 +094 262010 014 011 000 03
170700 2759N 08705W 7473 02579 0054 +136 +112 261008 009 012 000 00
170730 2757N 08704W 7696 02325 0054 +145 +124 271007 009 012 000 00
170800 2756N 08702W 7950 02046 0054 +157 +137 301007 009 011 000 00
170830 2754N 08701W 8167 01811 0051 +170 +145 323009 010 010 000 00
170900 2753N 08700W 8396 01572 0050 +182 +166 335011 012 011 000 00
170930 2751N 08659W 8627 01337 0049 +197 +172 348012 013 011 000 00
171000 2750N 08657W 8856 01107 0048 +210 +179 351011 013 011 000 00
171030 2748N 08656W 9032 00938 0049 +212 +196 336009 010 011 000 00
171100 2748N 08656W 9032 00938 0044 +220 +203 313006 009 011 000 00
$$
;

Now at operational altitude.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061721
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 09 20160606
171130 2746N 08654W 9249 00720 0038 +220 +205 285007 008 012 000 00
171200 2744N 08653W 9248 00721 0039 +220 +207 287010 011 013 000 00
171230 2743N 08652W 9250 00718 0038 +220 +204 276011 011 014 000 00
171300 2742N 08651W 9248 00720 0038 +220 +204 268010 011 013 000 00
171330 2740N 08650W 9248 00720 0037 +221 +204 266010 010 011 000 00
171400 2739N 08648W 9249 00718 0038 +219 +205 264010 010 013 000 00
171430 2738N 08647W 9248 00720 0037 +219 +206 267010 010 013 000 00
171500 2737N 08646W 9249 00717 0038 +220 +206 268011 011 012 000 00
171530 2736N 08644W 9249 00717 0038 +218 +210 261011 011 013 000 00
171600 2734N 08643W 9250 00717 0037 +218 +211 261009 010 012 000 00
171630 2733N 08642W 9248 00718 0037 +220 +210 258009 009 012 000 00
171700 2732N 08641W 9249 00717 0037 +217 +211 266010 010 012 000 00
171730 2731N 08639W 9249 00717 0037 +216 +210 265010 011 012 000 00
171800 2730N 08638W 9249 00717 0037 +219 +209 261011 011 011 000 00
171830 2729N 08637W 9248 00718 0037 +219 +210 261010 010 012 000 00
171900 2727N 08635W 9248 00718 0037 +215 +211 262011 011 011 000 00
171930 2726N 08634W 9250 00717 0037 +215 +210 255013 014 011 000 00
172000 2725N 08633W 9248 00720 0039 +215 +208 253015 015 012 000 00
172030 2724N 08631W 9249 00718 0039 +214 +211 252014 015 012 000 03
172100 2723N 08630W 9251 00718 0039 +216 +212 251014 015 013 000 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061731
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 10 20160606
172130 2722N 08629W 9245 00722 0038 +219 +202 251015 016 013 000 00
172200 2720N 08627W 9250 00717 0039 +217 +202 248015 016 013 000 00
172230 2719N 08626W 9249 00721 0040 +213 +207 243015 016 013 000 00
172300 2718N 08625W 9248 00722 0040 +215 +202 241016 016 012 000 03
172330 2717N 08624W 9249 00721 0042 +215 +207 239016 017 012 000 00
172400 2716N 08622W 9249 00721 0041 +215 +206 243015 016 014 000 00
172430 2715N 08621W 9249 00721 0042 +215 +208 242016 017 013 000 00
172500 2714N 08620W 9248 00723 0043 +214 +207 236017 017 015 000 00
172530 2712N 08618W 9248 00723 0043 +215 +205 240018 018 015 000 00
172600 2711N 08617W 9249 00723 0043 +215 +202 241019 019 015 000 00
172630 2710N 08616W 9249 00723 0045 +213 +201 239019 020 015 000 00
172700 2709N 08614W 9249 00723 0046 +210 +208 238020 021 015 000 00
172730 2708N 08613W 9249 00723 0045 +210 +201 236020 021 014 000 00
172800 2707N 08611W 9248 00723 0045 +210 +203 235021 022 013 000 00
172830 2706N 08610W 9247 00726 0046 +210 +209 234021 022 013 000 03
172900 2706N 08608W 9249 00723 0045 +211 +207 235021 021 013 000 00
172930 2705N 08606W 9251 00722 0046 +211 +211 230021 022 014 000 00
173000 2705N 08604W 9247 00726 0040 +213 +207 229023 023 015 000 03
173030 2704N 08603W 8827 01112 0024 +198 +186 230026 027 /// /// 03
173100 2704N 08601W 8574 01371 0031 +190 +159 240024 025 /// /// 03
$$
;

[chaser1]

12 miles less an hour is splitting hairs. Gusts to 58 mph locally

There is a point here and I feel you are at a loss to understand it. No one on these boards would minimize the need for safety. Risk associated with localized or regional weather conditions can vary dependant on a number of factors. You know what? You're right about 12mph as splitting hairs. Whats 12 mile per hour breezes between friends, right? Now, in doing the math we both know that 58 + 12 is 70. Heck, a gust of 70mph is only 2 miles per hour under hurricane intensity! In retrospec one has to wonder why in the world has NHC not made reference to "expect gusts to hurricane force"?

Even though a Tropical Storm is weaker and less organized than a hurricane, by definition it is generallly a fairly large weather system with some semplance of organization that typically is defined by those weather conditions that most people will experience when being directly impacted by it. We can talk all day about sustained 2 min. wind verses a 2 second gust and flooded roads caused by 4" - 10" of flooding rains, but in the end a tropical storm generally represents serious weather conditions likely to impact a large percentage of those directly in its path, along with a less consistant but still threatening conditions to those well removed from the storms direct path.

My entire point here is that while safety and precaution are paramount, hype is even more dangerous. The complacency that occurs where 50% or more of a given population do NOT experience those actual conditions they were originally warned about. Human nature then causes those people to further ignore those very same warnings when expected conditions might be expected to be even worse.

So when you come right down to it, which makes more sense? "Tropical Storm Force conditions sweeping through the area and damaging winds gusting to 70mph" OR "Most areas to receive off and on periods of intense rain where winds will be strong with some experiencing gusts to over 50mph and an isolated threat of a tornado". Forecasts and official advises should express those conditions that most will reasonably expect to experience with a fairly specific timeline when these conditions might occur. When the vast majority of people begin to think that severe weather predictions and forecasts are being written by people on crack, that creates a serious recipe for future disaster. The science of meteorology is tricky and accuracy as perceived by the general public IS important.