ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USTropics]

None of the 18z guidance, 18z GFS ensembles, nor the 12z CMC ensembles have this interacting with Hispaniola:

18z model guidance:


18z GFS ensembles:


12z CMC ensembles:

[Kingarabian]

The IR simulation from the Euro for 99L at its peak is downright scary.

Link?

It's a Weatherbell feature so we're not allowed to post, sorry.

[chaser1]

The last visible sat pics have easily shown the best evidence of some low level inflow thus far and 99L is looking pretty impressive at the moment. It seems to me that a LLC appears to be forming further south than I would have anticipated, around 15.5 & 59.0. Something to keep in mind here is that the most bullish models ALL take 99L just north of Puerto Rico. In fact, its the GFS that might appear to drag the center of 99L over Puerto Rico and a part of Hispanola. This point is critical from a perspective of 99L's impact to Florida and could make a different of at least one less day of potential strengthening prior to a possible Florida landfall. Something worth watching and keeping an eye on here is:
1) where exactly will a LLC attempt to form
2) from the point of an apparent LLC forming, will its track cause the system to be significantly disrupted (i.e. mountains) or keep it mostly over water.

[SeGaBob]

Almost time for the convection to start firing...

[La Breeze]

We do not want any part of the fun and games and especially our friends in LA.

PLEASE stay away!! Indeed we can not have this -

[gatorcane]

Almost time for the convection to start firing...

Already has, maybe a bit earlier than I expected:

[chaser1]

These eyes see 18Z initialization appearing nearly a degree to far north and east.

[Nederlander]

None of the 18z guidance, 18z GFS ensembles, nor the 12z CMC ensembles have this interacting with Hispaniola:

I think the thought on Hispaniola is that if initializations are too far north (i.e. the llc forms to the south), then it could track west of the guidance. Everything is hypothetical without a defined llc..

[cycloneye]

New video by Levi Cowan.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/768247351223934976

[La Breeze]

This could well be a hurricane threat to south FL and a major hurricane threat to the mid Gulf Coast. More EC ensembles are on-board with development and most indicate a track into the Gulf. Final landfall may be around next Tuesday night, quite possibly west of the FL Panhandle and east of Houston (I hope). I guess I'll have to cancel my vacation days for this Thu/Fri. I knew 2 weeks ago when I scheduled them that I'd make the tropics come alive in doing so. It always happens...

wxman57 you don't sound too sure that 99L won't get as far west as the Houston/Galveston area.

We here in Louisiana don't want it going this far west either, PLEASE!

[JtSmarts]

Levi is addressing the issues with the lower level center vs the mid level center in the video that Cycloneye posted above, I highly recommend it.

[AutoPenalti]

Levi pretty much summed up what many have questioned, at this point the he is siding with the Euro.

[PTrackerLA]

It's been a while fellow GOM'ers but I don't have a great feeling about this one. I'd feel better if the GFS and EURO solutions were reversed, but here we are. Unfortunately my gut tells me the trend will be even further west and the ensembles are hinting at that as well. With the possibility of 99L ramping up very quickly in the Gulf this weekend could be action time for gulf coast residents. Everyone stay tuned and please alert friends/family to stay vigilant. Frankly I've had an ominous feeling about the remainder of the season ever since our unnamed 500 year flood event. Hope I'm wrong.

[jhpigott]

Seen this movie before - battle to see where llc forms. MLC certainly flaring this evening, but also seeing convection pop further north

[KatDaddy]

I must say that I am right there with you PTrackerLA. The ridge is looking to holder stronger to the N of Invest 99L through the weekend which would push it into the GOM. TX and LA does not need a tropical visitor.

[Blown Away]

Based on the 8pm update, seems if 99L tracks a general W-WNW it will cover PR/Hispaniola/Cuba... Basically toast..

[hurricanehunter69]

Not looking nearly as impressive as it did a few days ago on (MIMIC-TPW) http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[BucMan2]

Is there still potential for the West coast of the pennisula
and the Eastern gulf to be affected by 99L?

[BobHarlem]

Almost time for the convection to start firing...

Already has, maybe a bit earlier than I expected:

The "northern center" (near where all the big red is in this image between 18 and 19N) is where the LLC seems likely to form, the southern area not so much.

[paintplaye]

Not looking nearly as impressive as it did a few days ago on (MIMIC-TPW) http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

Total Precipitable water only tells one part of the story. While it is a little elongated, recent satellite images (before and after sunset) show the mid level center becoming more organized and gaining more convection.