ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

While I'm certainly no expert, my untrained take on this image seems to scream for a solid north to NNE movement following that very clear weakness between the apparent/potential ridge over FL and the Bermuda high to it's east. Why wouldn't it follow that 'blue river' to its north?

Because the pattern is so complex that assuming either model is even gonna be close in 7 days is a mistake.

[xcool22]

fl chances appear to be decreas imo

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Weatherboy1]

Worth noting that some of the eastern outlier models have shifted west today, while some of the western outlier models have shifted east. Generally converging around a path due N or NNE out of the Caribbean and away from FL. Will have to see if that changes and/or what happens even further down the road in terms of any potential impact on the U.S. SE or NE ...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_14.gif

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm still waiting for it to slow down. If it keeps getting ahead of where the models think it will be (as it has been doing today), that has implications as to the pattern and when it feels the tug. I still think this goes farther west before the turn

[Kazmit]

Looks like SFL dodged yet another bullet, for now.

You've been here a year already and are making assumptions like that...come on, now

Florida is not out of the woods. The future of Matthew is very uncertain after about 4 days. A Florida landfall is still possible, but probably less likely than a NC landfall.

[jlauderdal]

Bernie Rayno has a very complex solution

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... s/vbraynob

[otterlyspicey]

Looking almost like a Joaquin like tease. Looks like it can hit the east coast, then all of a sudden the models take it OTS just like last year with Joaquin. Obviously we are wayyyyy too far out to know if that's what will happen, but models really hopped on the east/OTS scenario real quick in unison.

[jlauderdal]

I'm still waiting for it to slow down. If it keeps getting ahead of where the models think it will be (as it has been doing today), that has implications as to the pattern and when it feels the tug. I still think this goes farther west before the turn

basrtardi and rayno are in agreement with you..bottom line is lets see where we are on fri/sat with sensible weather..whats actually happening...the euro popped up that low from nowhere on this last run which seems odd..had a ridge driving it NW towards florida on the last run..so it goes from a ridge to a low in one run albeit in different positions but the net effect results in a completely different outcome...its possible but seems odd..for florida we hope the low is there but I am not getting sucked into that yet

also, gfs and euro are closer together now but for different reasons...thats not model agreement

let see how are friends at NHC resolve this..i expect its more of the same and they wont do much with the track or intensity

[chaser1]

I'm still waiting for it to slow down. If it keeps getting ahead of where the models think it will be (as it has been doing today), that has implications as to the pattern and when it feels the tug. I still think this goes farther west before the turn

basrtardi and rayno are in agreement with you..bottom line is lets see where we are on fri/sat with sensible weather..whats actually happening...the euro popped up that low from nowhere on this last run which seems odd..had a ridge driving it NW towards florida on the last run..so it goes from a ridge to a low in one run albeit in different positions but the net effect results in a completely different outcome...its possible but seems odd..for florida we hope the low is there but I am not getting sucked into that yet

also, gfs and euro are closer together now but for different reasons...thats not model agreement

let see how are friends at NHC resolve this..i expect its more of the same and they wont do much with the track or intensity

Throw me onto that bandwagon heading further west as well. Low latitude + large hurricane heating up the upper atmosphere with its outflow, minus spuriously appearing upper lows = a more WNW to NW motion beyond 4 days.

[fci]

Well, you may end up being correct. However, the European ensembles still suggest a significant risk for Florida. Hopefully people, especially on the east coast of Florida are prepared or getting ready to prepare.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/7 ... 2035187712

Nope I doubt anybody is getting prepared in South Florida. Too many false alarms and storms moving through the Bahamas to our east for over a decade. Lots of complacency around here. If we are in the 5 day window though, I think some folks will be preparing.

Nothing to get ready for nor be concerned about.
We are 7-8 days away and the uncertainty is huge.

[johngaltfla]

I know this much. My long range forecast from Accuweather for my area is uh, "interesting" to say the least...

[johngaltfla]

Bernie Rayno has a very complex solution

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... s/vbraynob

That explains our long range forecast from Accuweather.

[fci]

I dont think I would rule out a Betsy like track across FL into the GOM quite yet either. Thats still on the table as well.

This is the first I've heard of a Betsy track. That's not good.

Betsy is almost a once in a lifetime track.
Went all the way up to bring a threat to NC, east of Daytona before it looped, headed South and turned west across Key Largo.
It also came from the southeast, north of Puerto Rico.
If you are referring to taking a hard right turn maybe it's more like Hurricane Jeanne.

[jlauderdal]

Well, you may end up being correct. However, the European ensembles still suggest a significant risk for Florida. Hopefully people, especially on the east coast of Florida are prepared or getting ready to prepare.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/7 ... 2035187712

Nope I doubt anybody is getting prepared in South Florida. Too many false alarms and storms moving through the Bahamas to our east for over a decade. Lots of complacency around here. If we are in the 5 day window though, I think some folks will be preparing.

Nothing to get ready for nor be concerned about.
We are 7-8 days away and the uncertainty is huge.

wxman57 says 2 weeks so plenty of time to watch

[Bocadude85]

Bernie Rayno has a very complex solution

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... s/vbraynob

That explains our long range forecast from Accuweather.

Lol yea the forecast for Miami is calling for wind gusts over 100mph

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/miami-fl/33128/daily-weather-forecast/347936?day=12

[nativefloridian]

I know this much. My long range forecast from Accuweather for my area is uh, "interesting" to say the least...

I decided to check my forecast out and see pretty much the same as you do. I'm in Broward County and for 10/9 it says Day: 47 mph winds - Gusts to 100 mph and Evening 41 mph winds - Gusts to 84 mph.

[johngaltfla]

Bernie Rayno has a very complex solution

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... s/vbraynob

That explains our long range forecast from Accuweather.

Lol yea the forecast for Miami is calling for wind gusts over 100mph

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/miami-fl/33128/daily-weather-forecast/347936?day=12

If we get squeezed between a cold front and a Cat 3 hurricane, those forecasts don't sound so insane with the pressure gradients we'll experience. And the tree service is behind schedule due to a crane shortage getting rid of my oak tree from Hermaine!!!!

[centuryv58]

I know this much. My long range forecast from Accuweather for my area is uh, "interesting" to say the least...

I decided to check my forecast out and see pretty much the same as you do. I'm in Broward County and for 10/9 it says Day: 47 mph winds - Gusts to 100 mph and Evening 41 mph winds - Gusts to 84 mph.

I'm afraid now to check mine in West Palm Beach. These can't be posted as real forecasts with so much doubt, can they??

[stormchazer]

I dont think I would rule out a Betsy like track across FL into the GOM quite yet either. Thats still on the table as well.

This is the first I've heard of a Betsy track. That's not good.

Betsy is almost a once in a lifetime track.
Went all the way up to bring a threat to NC, east of Daytona before it looped, headed South and turned west across Key Largo.
It also came from the southeast, north of Puerto Rico.
If you are referring to taking a hard right turn maybe it's more like Hurricane Jeanne.

Didn't Jeanne take a hard left turn?

[stormchazer]

Oops....you are correct. Loop to right.