ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Levi pretty much summed up what many have questioned, at this point the he is siding with the Euro.

That's a change from him, yesterday afternoon he was siding more with the GFS.

[gatorcane]

Not looking nearly as impressive as it did a few days ago on (MIMIC-TPW) http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

What I see is a gradually organizing system in its seminal stages of development. Convection is popping and there is a lot of rotation/vortices that to me look like they are trying to consolidate. It really isn't supposed to take off until it clears Hispaniola.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[NDG]

Mid level vorticty's convection is dying out, watch for the low level vorticity to the NW of it take over during the night.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1472001503

[TheStormExpert]

Levi pretty much summed up what many have questioned, at this point the he is siding with the Euro.

That's a change from him, yesterday afternoon he was siding more with the GFS.

I wouldn't say he is siding with any model just yet. He seems to leave both possible options on the table.

[JaxGator]

The 850mb vort is better defined.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF

[USTropics]

As Levi was alluding to, we need to watch the area where the most low-level vorticity is currently occurring (circled in red). The other area (circled in yellow) currently has no support at the surface:



You can see this on the 850mb Vorticity chart as well:

[stormhunter7]

The Hurricane "Alert 48" was established on August 20th. Science Flight-1 to Tropical Storm Gaston is scheduled for August 24th.

0600 (1000 Z): Take-off to T.S. Gaston


Think data from this mission will help globals starting tmrw at 18z.

[Hammy]

Mid level vorticty's convection is dying out, watch for the low level vorticity to the NW of it take over during the night.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1472001503

Caribbean radar shows this could be happening, there's a nice thick east-west band that's formed in the last hour around 15/60 rather than the SE-NW orientation that's been present all day. This is also about to go over the islands in the next several hours so we should get some good surface observations prior to the plane arriving tomorrow.

[gatorcane]

So far things seem to be playing out like the Euro showed during the next 24 hours from 12Z where the Euro showed a notable in increase in vorticity though the 18Z GFS has a stronger vorticity through 24 hours than the 12Z run did.

[stormhunter7]

FYI... "The Hurricane "Alert 48" was established on August 20th. Science Flight-1 to Tropical Storm Gaston is scheduled for August 24th. 0600 (1000 Z): Take-off to T.S. Gaston" Global Hawk airborne in the morning. Expect 18z models to start getting a handle on the Atlantic High, and invest 99l, etc.

[gatorcane]

This SST map is from yesterday. It is almost like bath water in the Bahamas - yes water temps are at 90F across large pockets:

[floridasun78]

i talk to wfor Craig Setzer few min ago he say he want see how look when turn north islands on thur he say he want see data from gulf steam plan see what data gave models run on thur he say 99l fighting dry air well he say shear not in area east of Bahamas so want see what gplane show on thur models we put rest all cazy models runs

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/768259609710571520

[wxman57]

This could well be a hurricane threat to south FL and a major hurricane threat to the mid Gulf Coast. More EC ensembles are on-board with development and most indicate a track into the Gulf. Final landfall may be around next Tuesday night, quite possibly west of the FL Panhandle and east of Houston (I hope). I guess I'll have to cancel my vacation days for this Thu/Fri. I knew 2 weeks ago when I scheduled them that I'd make the tropics come alive in doing so. It always happens...

wxman57 you don't sound too sure that 99L won't get as far west as the Houston/Galveston area.

I'm not so sure we're not under the gun in SE TX. If I was a betting man, I'd be looking at SE LA/MS for the eventual landfall of a Cat 3.

[wxman57]

Based on the 8pm update, seems if 99L tracks a general W-WNW it will cover PR/Hispaniola/Cuba... Basically toast..

It's hard to destroy something that hasn't developed yet. Hitting the DR may shift the track farther west along the Gulf coast, but it won't end the threat. If I lived on the northern Gulf coast I'd be making sure all my hurricane supplies are in order.

[psyclone]

This could well be a hurricane threat to south FL and a major hurricane threat to the mid Gulf Coast. More EC ensembles are on-board with development and most indicate a track into the Gulf. Final landfall may be around next Tuesday night, quite possibly west of the FL Panhandle and east of Houston (I hope). I guess I'll have to cancel my vacation days for this Thu/Fri. I knew 2 weeks ago when I scheduled them that I'd make the tropics come alive in doing so. It always happens...

wxman57 you don't sound too sure that 99L won't get as far west as the Houston/Galveston area.

I'm not so sure we're not under the gun in SE TX. If I was a betting man, I'd be looking at SE LA/MS for the eventual landfall of a Cat 3.

Well those folks certainly know the drill. What a history that neck of the woods already has in mid to late August.

[SunnyThoughts]

Based on the 8pm update, seems if 99L tracks a general W-WNW it will cover PR/Hispaniola/Cuba... Basically toast..

It's hard to destroy something that hasn't developed yet. Hitting the DR may shift the track farther west along the Gulf coast, but it won't end the threat. If I lived on the northern Gulf coast I'd be making sure all my hurricane supplies are in order.

Been doing that all day today...making sure family and friends know its a possibility and to start gathering your thoughts and your supplies before the weekend hype begins if this develops like the Euro says. Waiting till the weekend is a bad idea imo. Mad rush will be on at some location along the Gulf coast by that time I'm afraid.

[Bocadude85]

Based on the 8pm update, seems if 99L tracks a general W-WNW it will cover PR/Hispaniola/Cuba... Basically toast..

It's hard to destroy something that hasn't developed yet. Hitting the DR may shift the track farther west along the Gulf coast, but it won't end the threat. If I lived on the northern Gulf coast I'd be making sure all my hurricane supplies are in order.

Any thought on SFla?

[PTrackerLA]

Based on the 8pm update, seems if 99L tracks a general W-WNW it will cover PR/Hispaniola/Cuba... Basically toast..

It's hard to destroy something that hasn't developed yet. Hitting the DR may shift the track farther west along the Gulf coast, but it won't end the threat. If I lived on the northern Gulf coast I'd be making sure all my hurricane supplies are in order.

Ugh, was afraid hearing this from you. It's starting to look a little hairy for the northern Gulf coast. The good thing for the flood ravaged areas is it looks like the hurricane would be moving at a pretty good clip based off the Euro, God forbid it comes this way but any rain is not appreciated right now. The flip side of that is we could be looking at an extremely damaging storm wind-wise on top of the surge.

[BobHarlem]

Based on where that center seems to want to form (northern side based on sat/radar) I don't see how this gets much of any disruption from Hispaniola.