ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LSU2001]

Ptracker,
I don't like that prediction from Wxman either. He has always had my deepest respect and is usually pretty spot on.
tim

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like it is following right along the Euro track. Intensity and eventual landfall location in South Florida will be important for the eventual second landfall in the GOM.

[Medtronic15]

Great!

[BigB0882]

Seeing WXman post about the Northern Gulf Coast makes my heart drop. I know he didn't make a prediction and he was just giving an area to be on guard but we can not have this in Louisiana right now. Baton Rouge schools are not even going back until after Labor Day because of the devastation from the flooding. There are streets with piles and piles of debris from people's flooded homes. Can you imagine all of that debris being blown around in a hurricane or even a tropical storm! I was lucky and did not flood but so many did and this would just be too much. I don't want to wish it on anyone else but it just can't come here.

[CrazyC83]

Great!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

That center looks far south of the models though? It seems to be near 15.0N.

[deltadog03]

I think there is great possibility with this one...more on it tomorrow, curious to see what the GFS And euro do tonight. Thanks for all the new likes...come on by if you have not and give some feedback and a like...I appreciate it!
https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/

[JaxGator]

Great!

That center looks far south of the models though? It seems to be near 15.0N.

That's the MLC. The LLC is under the new convection further north.

[chaser1]

Based on the 8pm update, seems if 99L tracks a general W-WNW it will cover PR/Hispaniola/Cuba... Basically toast..

It's hard to destroy something that hasn't developed yet. Hitting the DR may shift the track farther west along the Gulf coast, but it won't end the threat. If I lived on the northern Gulf coast I'd be making sure all my hurricane supplies are in order.

My thoughts exactly!!! Days ago I really thought the primary threat would be farther north along the Florida coast. Looking at everything - but mostly at satellite, I'd say a significant risk may exist for the W. Bahamas, all S. Florida and potentially all points north along the Gulf coast and all the way over to Houston. Levi's explantation and synopsis was excellent (as always) though I might slightly disagree with the shorter term evolution of 99L. A quickly northwest tilted low level center will need to slow down for the mid level to become more aligned, or for the northern axis of the wave to become more dominant & vertically stacked. That could happen however would retard development from quickly occuring. Now, if the convection further south were to die off and continued convection occur between 17-19N, than a more northern center LLC might be then transitioning. I'd guess that the mid level might trek across S. Puerto Rico and likely over part of Eastern/Northern Hispanola and an LLC finally consolodate at such a time, but in the process 'hopefully" lesson the risk to much of S. Florida. Any way you cut it though, I would'nt want to be in any sailboat presently sitting offshore between Tallahassee and S.E. Texas.

[Nederlander]

Great!

That center looks far south of the models though? It seems to be near 15.0N.

That's mid level... Area to watch is around 17N

[AutoPenalti]

Great!

That center looks far south of the models though? It seems to be near 15.0N.

MLC is trying to stack itself to the north.

[wflamholtz]

Great!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

That center looks far south of the models though? It seems to be near 15.0N.

What you saw around 15 N was probably the mid-level circulation.The LLC, if there is one, is probs between 17-18 N based on METAR obs from the islands

[wxman57]

Seeing WXman post about the Northern Gulf Coast makes my heart drop. I know he didn't make a prediction and he was just giving an area to be on guard but we can not have this in Louisiana right now. Baton Rouge schools are not even going back until after Labor Day because of the devastation from the flooding. There are streets with piles and piles of debris from people's flooded homes. Can you imagine all of that debris being blown around in a hurricane or even a tropical storm! I was lucky and did not flood but so many did and this would just be too much. I don't want to wish it on anyone else but it just can't come here.

My sister lives just south of you in Prairieville. She missed the flood by 1 block. She's been helping flood victims this past week. I know they don't need a hurricane or any rain over there.

[Javlin]

That center looks far south of the models though? It seems to be near 15.0N.

supposedly that is a more a mid level rotation .I was thinking more like 18N60W?Hard to say at night on an unorganized system.MIMIC points WNW still.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[gatorcane]

Are we possibly see genesis occurring before our eyes tonight? That MLC is heading NW towards the LLC and plenty of convection is firing around the LLC. It really seems to be trying to get its act together. Would be ahead of schedule by a couple of days.

[Nederlander]

Are we possibly see genesis occurring before our eyes tonight? That MLC is heading NW towards the LLC and plenty of convection is firing around the LLC?

Yep it sure is.. And I was about to get some much needed sleep...

[GeneratorPower]

Great audio overview with slides from DT. See link.
https://www.wxrisk.com/aug-23-audio-update/

[CrazyC83]

Would an early genesis change the track forecast? (I suspect not)

[GeneratorPower]

Are we possibly see genesis occurring before our eyes tonight? That MLC is heading NW towards the LLC and plenty of convection is firing around the LLC. It really seems to be trying to get its act together. Would be ahead of schedule by a couple of days.

Sure looks that way. So touchy though.

[LSU2001]

Seeing WXman post about the Northern Gulf Coast makes my heart drop. I know he didn't make a prediction and he was just giving an area to be on guard but we can not have this in Louisiana right now. Baton Rouge schools are not even going back until after Labor Day because of the devastation from the flooding. There are streets with piles and piles of debris from people's flooded homes. Can you imagine all of that debris being blown around in a hurricane or even a tropical storm! I was lucky and did not flood but so many did and this would just be too much. I don't want to wish it on anyone else but it just can't come here.

Nice to see a fellow tigerdroppings poster but I do agree, we do not need nor want anything to do with this or any other storm.
Tim

[SFLcane]

I think there is great possibility with this one...more on it tomorrow, curious to see what the GFS And euro do tonight. Thanks for all the new likes...come on by if you have not and give some feedback and a like...I appreciate it!
https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/

70kt hurricane into South Florida