ATL: HERMINE - Models

Bocadude85 · #961 Postby **Bocadude85** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:07 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Definitely further north at 102 and vort more defined.

Yea this is going to end up quite a bit further north.

#962 Postby **SFLcane** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:07 pm

Begins strengthening at @ 108hrs

#963 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:08 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Definitely further north at 102 and vort more defined.

Yea this is going to end up quite a bit further north.

What does this mean? Could it lead to a recurve??

SouthFLTropics · #964 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:08 pm

This is about to get interesting...think we're going to see some Fujiwara on this GFS run.

#965 Postby **Blown Away** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:08 pm

18z GFS... 108 Hours... 1010 Low appears... Organizing slightly better than 12z... Moving @WNW... Fiona's Low tag is gone... 90L slightly E of 12z...

hurricanedude · #966 Postby **hurricanedude** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:10 pm

East Coast still at play?

#967 Postby **USTropics** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:10 pm

The furthest north we've seen 99L get in the Bahamas. Also Fiona is quite a bit further south this run:

pgoss11 · #968 Postby **pgoss11** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:10 pm

Blown Away wrote:18z GFS... 108 Hours... 1010 Low appears... Organizing slightly better than 12z... Moving @WNW... Fiona's Low tag is gone...

I still wonder if there's a weakness from Fiona allowing for 99L to move further north.

bamajammer4eva · #969 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:11 pm

Looks like its pulling fiona remnants closer to it

#970 Postby **Blown Away** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:13 pm

18z GFS... 120 Hours... Still weak... High Building over Carolinas

SouthFLTropics · #971 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:13 pm

I'm not sure ridge is as strong this run...at 126 it looks like East Coast trough is more pronounced.

#972 Postby **USTropics** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:14 pm

Strengthening much quicker then the 12z run at 126 hours, also further north as noted earlier:

#973 Postby **Blown Away** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:14 pm

18z GFS... 126 Hours... Pressure dropping

#974 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:16 pm

138 hours, ridge filling in to the north as Fiona gets shear out

#975 Postby **Blown Away** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:18 pm

18z GFS... 144 Hours... Better organized than 12z at this point... Beginning to deepen... 90L appears to be farther N than 12z...

#976 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:18 pm

150 hours, powerful 90L comes barreling in from the east closing in on 99l. The break in the ridge is shrinking.

TheStormExpert · #977 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:19 pm

Heading west @ 156hrs.

#978 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:19 pm

156 hours motion seems to be NW.

#979 Postby **SFLcane** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:20 pm

Looks like a recurve here

TheStormExpert · #980 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:21 pm

What causes 90L to move so fast?