ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Macrocane]

Let me keep this clean as possible. But assuming that we all know the root of the word peninsula, wouldn't the urethra of Florida be a better term than spine?

Sorry.

hmmm paenīnsula: from latin paene-, 'almost', and īnsula, 'island'; "almost island"

Back on topic. I think the NHS are doing well being conservative in the earlier forecast, we've seen too many busts this season. Anyway, in the Caribbean islands the winds are not the only problem, rainfall can cause serious flooding and mudslides so people in its path should be taking preparations.

[MetroMike]

The latest NHC advisory has Matthew's forward speed down to 18 mph. Still fast but it's slowing down.

Also the more its forward speed decreases the great chance it will affect the fork in the road when it is forecast to turn North. It could end up missing the trough and get into the Florida straits.

[Hammy]

I'm honestly surprised this managed to close off, especially where it's at--the eastern Caribbean has often been called the graveyard of the Atlantic. I'm still not entirely buying the intensity forecasts as there seems to be a good amount of shear over the system still, and I can't easily pick out where the center is on radar.

[JaxGator]

I'm honestly surprised this managed to close off, especially where it's at--the eastern Caribbean has often been called the graveyard of the Atlantic. I'm still not entirely buying the intensity forecasts as there seems to be a good amount of shear over the system still, and I can't easily pick out where the center is on radar.

Shear is helping with outflow and there was a anti-cyclone overhead. Don't know if it's still there though.

[JtSmarts]

18z GFS was very similar to 12z. Just a little farther west and a close call but still ultimately a miss on the US coast.

[curtadams]

I'm honestly surprised this managed to close off, especially where it's at--the eastern Caribbean has often been called the graveyard of the Atlantic. I'm still not entirely buying the intensity forecasts as there seems to be a good amount of shear over the system still, and I can't easily pick out where the center is on radar.

The NHC 5PM discussion says Matthew is still "trying" to develop an inner core, so the reason you can't see a center is that there isn't one. We've seen this before with storms developing from these big lows - it *looks* like a TS on radar and has TS conditions, but there isn't a cyclone core in the usual sense.

[cycloneye]

Matthew is stronger. 73kts at flight level

[robbielyn]

then why did they make it a ts without a core cubit was near other islands that would experience ts conditions?

[RL3AO]

Worth noting they're at a higher flight level (850 mb/1500 m) vs 100 m earlier. Might explain some of the stronger winds.

Also interesting in seeing if there is any sign of a core/wind maxima developing. Whats the pressure? How organized is the center?

Big questions for recon to answer.

[northjaxpro]

Matthew is stronger. 73kts at flight level

I think that the cyclone is in the process of aligning itself(stacking) now pretty good. If indeed that is occuring, this system is all systems go for significant strengthening.

[TimeZone]

Certainly not the most impressive looking cyclone yet. I'd be surprised if it gained much strength since the last Recon.

[pcolaman]

Matthew is stronger. 73kts at flight level

I think that the cyclone is in the process of aligning itself(stacking) now pretty good. If indeed that is occuring, this system is all systems go for significant strengthening.

Still has a long way to go imho

[RL3AO]

Certainly not the most impressive looking cyclone yet. I'd be surprised if it gained much strength since the last Recon.

I look at this and say wow. This has only been a TS for 8 hours and it looks well on it's way to being a hurricane tomorrow.

[jlauderdal]

Levis Take:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[hurricaneCW]

Matthew is looking surprisingly very impressive, I really though he would struggle to close off and develop like many systems this season.

I think a hurricane is now very likely by tomorrow if trends continue.

[WeatherEmperor]

Certainly not the most impressive looking cyclone yet. I'd be surprised if it gained much strength since the last Recon.

I look at this and say wow. This has only been a TS for 8 hours and it looks well on it's way to being a hurricane tomorrow.

I have been thinking about this for some time now...but how is it that we can look at the same satellite picture and same graphics yet have 2 totally opposite views about what is being looked at?


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[northjaxpro]

Matthew is stronger. 73kts at flight level

I think that the cyclone is in the process of aligning itself(stacking) now pretty good. If indeed that is occuring, this system is all systems go for significant strengthening.

Still has a long way to go imho

It does have a way yet to coalesce. The emphasis I pointed out is that it is a process. It will stack eventually traversing the Caribbean and when it does, the cyclone will deepen significantly.

[SeGaBob]

Looks like a healthy TS to me. Some expect it to look like a cat 5 from the get go...

[cycloneye]

Pressure down to 1005 mbs.

[sunnyday]

Is Matthew still expected to be huge? Someone compared its size to Gilbert earlier this week.