Arabian Sea: Remnants - 2A

[1900hurricane]

Invest 93A has been declared. I haven't yet looked much at guidance for the system, but as it currently stands, it certainly looks (too) good for an invest, especially looking at the latest GPM pass.

[Alyono]

perhaps we should check to make sure the IMD have something called EYES

Their latest bulletin says no disturbances in the Arabian Sea

[Alyono]

an ASCAT hit this. It is proven to an absolute certainty that this is a depression with 30 kt winds. May become a cyclone within the next 12 hours.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.4N
66.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 66.4E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261718Z ASCAT
PASS REVEALS THE LLCC HAS BECOME NEARLY SYMMETRIC, WITH 30 KNOT
WINDS WRAPPING ALMOST COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW, AND VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS
LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) OVER THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA. THE LLCC IS BEING
ENHANCED BY A STRONG SURGE OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY,
MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE BELOW 1000 MB.
MODELS INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. DUE TO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND EVIDENCE OF RAPID ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[1900hurricane]

an ASCAT hit this. It is proven to an absolute certainty that this is a depression with 30 kt winds. May become a cyclone within the next 12 hours.

Yup, it certainly looks good.

[kala]

Looks like a depression to me.

Plus, it looks better than any of the WPAC depressions we've had so far... hopefully IMD will designate it soon.

[Yellow Evan]

This is 100% for sure classifiable, given the closed center and persistent organized convection.

[wxman57]

From its appearance on satellite, it may be a TS now. It's looking much better organized than it did when that ASCAT pass hit it. It's (almost) unbelievable - the IMD says there are no cyclones, no disturbances, and a 0% chance of development over the next 72 hrs.

[Kingarabian]

All those nations surrounding the Indian ocean yet only one institute that issues TC forecasts and advisories.

[Alyono]

there is a massive warm SST anomaly underneath this depression

[mrbagyo]

Looks classifiable to me. and yes, it looks better than all the pathetic invest in WPAC

[Alyono]

JTWC is starting advisories

Not sure how IMD can keep blowing things this badly, unless it is deliberate? I have no clue how this was missed. I was working last night, was on the sick side, and still noticed this easily in about 10 seconds. Was clear as day

[Alyono]

WTIO31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 21.9N 65.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 65.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.8N 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.0N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.2N 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.2N 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.7N 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 65.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A GROWING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) OBSCURRING A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A MOSAIC OF RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES REVEALS A VIGOROUS BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
QUADRANTS, AND INDICATES EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) MAY BE
CAUSING A WESTWARD TILT. A 261718Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED 30 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING AROUND A SYMMETRIC LLCC, AND THE OVERALL SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED SINCE THAT TIME. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND A 270015Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION DUE TO THE CDO AND THE POOR
REPRESENTATION OF THE LLCC IN THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 30 KTS,
AND TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS WITH SUBSEQUENT
DEEPENING CONVECTION. TC 02A IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, CAUSING A SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AS FOREWARD MOTION SLOWS. BEYOND TAU 48,
STEERING WILL BE ASSUMED BY A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL
AFRICA, CAUSING TC 02A TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. GOOD OUTFLOW
WILL OFFSET MODERATE VWS TO ALLOW FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH
TAU 36, AFTER WHICH THE VWS AND OUTFLOW CONDITIONS BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER. VERY LIMITED GUIDANCE
FOR THIS INITIAL FORECAST HAS A SIGNIFICANT TRACK SPREAD. THE GFS
MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST REALISTIC IN ITS ANALYSIS OF THIS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING CYCLONE, SO THE FORECAST IS BIASED TOWARD THAT SOLUTION.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.

[Yellow Evan]

27/0230 UTC 22.1N 65.5E T2.0/2.0 02A -- Arabian Sea

Likely a moderate TS in reality at this point.

[Darvince]

Maybe this could be our mythical first storm to reach the Persian Gulf?

[kala]

This is just mind-boggling that IMD haven't classified this yet.

[stormwise]

JTWC is starting advisories

Not sure how IMD can keep blowing things this badly, unless it is deliberate? I have no clue how this was missed. I was working last night, was on the sick side, and still noticed this easily in about 10 seconds. Was clear as day

I have noticed you never miss anything in this basin Alyono that spinsup..You are always all over it before all the agencies.




592

FXIO40 EGRR 270418



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.06.2016



CYCLONIC STORM 02A ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 65.9E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 27.06.2016 21.9N 65.9E MODERATE

12UTC 27.06.2016 21.3N 63.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.06.2016 20.6N 63.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.06.2016 21.0N 63.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.06.2016 20.8N 62.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.06.2016 20.0N 62.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.06.2016 20.2N 63.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.06.2016 20.2N 64.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.07.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 270417

[euro6208]

WTIO31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 21.8N 64.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 64.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.7N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.7N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.6N 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.3N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.4N 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 64.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC DUE
TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 270545Z MHS METOP-
B 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES FAIRLY DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED CENTER. A 270544Z ASCAT
IMAGE, HOWEVER, SHOWS 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE, WHICH ALONG WITH A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OFFSET VWS
AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36. TC 02A IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS
IT TRACKS UNDER THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. AFTER TAU 36, TC 02A SHOULD
SLOW AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD DUE TO A STRONG STR
ENTRENCHED OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS VWS INCREASES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
DECREASES. AFTER TAU 48, TC 02A WILL DISSIPATE AND THE REMNANTS WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK AND SYNOPTIC SCENARIO
WITH KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE TURN EASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

JTWC is starting advisories

Not sure how IMD can keep blowing things this badly, unless it is deliberate? I have no clue how this was missed. I was working last night, was on the sick side, and still noticed this easily in about 10 seconds. Was clear as day

I have noticed you never miss anything in this basin Alyono that spinsup..You are always all over it before all the agencies.

I forecast for this region. One difference is that I have to issue advisories on depressions, unlike JTWC. Thus, I'll be on top of things faster than they are.

As for IMD, well, lets just say I enjoy making them look stupid

[NotoSans]

Despite the fact that a cyclone has certainly formed, IMD now calls for fair chance of cyclogenesis within 24-48 hrs, up from 0% yesterday.