WPAC: Post Tropical Depression 98W

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.2N 135.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY
500 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050032Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE
PASS DEPICT DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED ON THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE EXPOSED AND RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC),
EVIDENT ON A 050034Z 25KM METOP-B ASCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THE LLCC IS SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF RELAXED DIFFLUENCE, AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-
25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING STRONG (20-25
KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE WINDS THAT ARE DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED
TO THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. HOWEVER, CORE WINDS NEAR THE LLC ARE
MUCH LIGHTER WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10-15 KNOTS. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS POLEWARD, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LLC BECOMING
MORE ASYMMETRIC AND ILL-DEFINED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHEAST COLD SURGE EVENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE WANED CONDITIONS
OF THE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.

[1900hurricane]

If it hasn't developed by now (it hasn't), it probably won't develop at all. It's just about run out of time.

[wxman57]

JMA continues to carry it as a TD, though I don't see how it qualifies. No well-defined LLC.

[cycloneye]

This is why Febuary normally does not have plenty of activity as the factors are not too favorable.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N
135.6E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

JTWC is still tracking the remnant, oddly enough as 99W now.

99W INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 08, 2017:

Location: 12.4°N 130.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

[euro6208]

99W INVEST 170208 0600 12.5N 130.6E WPAC 15 1005

[euro6208]

99W INVEST 170209 0600 11.5N 131.9E WPAC 15 1008

[Steve820]

Sadly this never became Muifa. Hopefully, the aforementioned name is used for a more powerful system in the near future as I think of that name as a strong name.