ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Looks to be well southwest of the previous 12Z and 0Z runs.

[tropicwatch]

Tis the season to stare at the euro runs, waiting for that next frame.

12Z Init

That is not where the NHC has 90L currently.

Kind of strange unless I am reading the map wrong.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF looks primed to shove 90L into Central America now.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

Not really a surprise the Euro is showing this heading into BOC-Mexico. That has been a pretty typical path for BOC storms going back the last 7 seasons. Still not certain that will be the outcome or whether this develops (though it is looking better than 99L for development).

[latitude_20]

Watching closely from Tulum, Mexico.

[Cpv17]

Looks like it'll be just another weak storm going into Mexico. What's new? And 99L doesn't even develop on the Euro. And just like that in a matter of 12 hours this hurricane season goes back to quiet mode after all the hype the past couple days. Yawn

[PTrackerLA]

Not really a surprise the Euro is showing this heading into BOC-Mexico. That has been a pretty typical path for BOC storms going back the 7 seasons. Still not certain that will be the outcome or whether this develops (though it is looking better than 99L for development).

You need a big trough or non-existent ridging along the gulf coast to pull a system far enough north out of the BOC to impact the US. It's been many years since I've seen it happen so Mexico is always the best bet.

[Hammy]

Looks like it'll be just another weak storm going into Mexico. What's new? And 99L doesn't even develop on the Euro. And just like that in a matter of 12 hours this hurricane season goes back to quiet mode after all the hype the past couple days. Yawn

That's why it's really best not to make expectations with the models--both Euro and GFS have been badly overdoing it with intensity over the last few years so it'll always end up looking more active than reality.

[Cpv17]

Looks like it'll be just another weak storm going into Mexico. What's new? And 99L doesn't even develop on the Euro. And just like that in a matter of 12 hours this hurricane season goes back to quiet mode after all the hype the past couple days. Yawn

That's why it's really best not to make expectations with the models--both Euro and GFS have been badly overdoing it with intensity over the last few years so it'll always end up looking more active than reality.

Completely agree.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm not convinced the Euro is initializing the system well. It shows it developing from a naked swirl just off the coast of South America. I think it will be closer to the convection currently tracking across the Caribbean. Confidence in its track still remains low.

[Cpv17]

I'm not convinced the Euro is initializing the system well. It shows it developing from a naked swirl just off the coast of South America. I think it will be closer to the convection currently tracking across the Caribbean. Confidence in its track still remains low.

I'm not 100% sure, but in previous runs of the Euro it appeared to be developing a low much further north closer to where the convection would be as you stated. If so then that would make a big difference in where 90L goes.

[ROCK]

agree with ST on that one...current convection is farther north. going to take awhile to consolidate. NAVGEM last night had this passing thru the Yuc channel...just saying...

[stormlover2013]

Rock is on that means he's interested lol

[MississippiWx]

Looks substantially weaker than yesterday, but likely due to the location--I've seen waves almost vanish to the point of not even seeing them on satellite, only to flare back up in the western Caribbean.

Welcome to the Central Caribbean death trap. It is very hostile to convection due to the surface divergence caused by fast trade winds. At the surface, we need air colliding to develop convection. In this location, it is often the opposite due to the acceleration of trade winds causing the air to diverge at the surface rather than converge. The trades slow down in the Western Caribbean and, thus, the air piles up or converges. Just like that, you get robust convective development again. When 90L approaches 75-80W, that's when we should start seeing development.

[Nimbus]

The wave south of Panama might be interfering with 90L further south.
Often either the Pacific or the Atlantic energy dominates in that area.