ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

There is a chance that Jose and Katia will join their big sister Irma as major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin at once. I am trying to remember when is the last time we had. three major hurricanes occurring at once?

What an incredible, but deadly season unfortunately this has become folks!

[EquusStorm]

It's been mentioned that this may not have ever happened, being missed by only a matter of hours a couple of times, but I'm going to hopefully look into it tonight and see. It's got to be incredibly rare if it HAS ever happened.

[northjaxpro]

It's been mentioned that this may not have ever happened, being missed by only a matter of hours a couple of times, but I'm going to hopefully look into it tonight and see. It's got to be incredibly rare if it HAS ever happened.

Yeah. I can not recall this ever happening, definitely not in recent memory for sure. It would be truly remarkable to have this occur.

[tolakram]

SLIDER IR

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4186&y=6374&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[EquusStorm]

It's been mentioned that this may not have ever happened, being missed by only a matter of hours a couple of times, but I'm going to hopefully look into it tonight and see. It's got to be incredibly rare if it HAS ever happened.

Yeah. I can not recall this ever happening, definitely not in recent memory for sure. It would be truly remarkable to have this occur.

Indeedy. I found a reference circa 2010 that gives the years three simultaneous hurricanes have occurred ( https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/a-rare-triple-threat-three-simultaneous-atlantic-hurricanes.html ) and while we came very close in 1961 and 2010, a quick scan of Best Track suggests that if three majors happens it would probably be a unique occurrence.

I coulda missed something though.

[EquusStorm]

Now 70kts/989. Jose also at 70kts per ATCF

[Chris90]

The only time I can recall three majors at once were never in the Atlantic.
Can't remember exactly when, sometime in the past couple years the EPac did it with Madeline, Lester, and another one I can't remember the name of. The WPac has also done it.

It'll be crazy if these storms manage to all pull it off at the same time.

[1900hurricane]

I'm having a hard time telling what's going on on Katia's microwave since the features are so small.

[Iune]

The only time I can recall three majors at once were never in the Atlantic.
Can't remember exactly when, sometime in the past couple years the EPac did it with Madeline, Lester, and another one I can't remember the name of. The WPac has also done it.

It'll be crazy if these storms manage to all pull it off at the same time.

Most recently (the first time?) in the Eastern/Central Pacific was in 2015 when Ignacio, Jimena and Kilo were active simultaneously as Category 4 hurricanes:

[Chris90]

Thank you. I clearly remembered it completely incorrectly haha. Wrong cyclones and year.

[EquusStorm]

Well, the new advisory has a forecast peak at 110mph and says that's likely conservative... when the usually cautious NHC goes that high, I'm pretty confident this is our best shot in living memory of having three majors active in the Atlantic. Just amazing to think what models suggested would be nothing or a weak low for a long while, might become a tiny major hurricane. What a year.

[CrazyC83]

Well, the new advisory has a forecast peak at 110mph and says that's likely conservative... when the usually cautious NHC goes that high, I'm pretty confident this is our best shot in living memory of having three majors active in the Atlantic. Just amazing to think what models suggested would be nothing or a weak low for a long while, might become a tiny major hurricane. What a year.

I honestly think this could even reach category 4 intensity.

[EquusStorm]

Well, the new advisory has a forecast peak at 110mph and says that's likely conservative... when the usually cautious NHC goes that high, I'm pretty confident this is our best shot in living memory of having three majors active in the Atlantic. Just amazing to think what models suggested would be nothing or a weak low for a long while, might become a tiny major hurricane. What a year.

I honestly think this could even reach category 4 intensity.

Agreed. These tiny BoC hurricanes have frightening potential.

[Ptarmigan]

Well, the new advisory has a forecast peak at 110mph and says that's likely conservative... when the usually cautious NHC goes that high, I'm pretty confident this is our best shot in living memory of having three majors active in the Atlantic. Just amazing to think what models suggested would be nothing or a weak low for a long while, might become a tiny major hurricane. What a year.

I honestly think this could even reach category 4 intensity.

Same here. Quite a small hurricane. That can intensify very quickly.

Code: Select all

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and
Katia could be near major hurricane strength at landfall.

Katia is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).

Hurricane Katia Advisory Number 6
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0250.shtml

[1900hurricane]

Looks like a developed tiny, tiny core.

[Chris90]

You know, I was thinking about it, and it seems like the K name from this naming list has had a thing for being a major for the past couple times this name list came up.
Katrina in 05, and then I double checked because my memory is clearly not working correctly today as evidenced earlier in the thread, but Katia in 2011 went Cat 4. It'll be interesting to see if Katia 2017 continues the tradition. Still a distinct possibility.
If it does make the run to major status I sincerely hope it weakens dramatically before making a landfall. We do not need another storm making a run for retirement this year.

[EquusStorm]

Both microwave and satellite indications are, the core area makes the storm look like Marco's big sister - super tiny BoC storm barely big enough to tell the features of. I assume it will enlarge as banding increases and the core develops under more favorable conditions, but for now, it's hard to tell too much about the structure. Hurricane/TS wind extent on the intermediate is 10/45 miles.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Looks like a developed tiny, tiny core.

It's fun size. Just like me!
Okay still not going to be fun to be hit by it. But still...am I allowed to squee?
A smol cane.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071025
AF308 0213A KATIA HDOB 11 20170907
101430 2507N 09224W 3926 07736 0421 -163 -251 210001 001 /// /// 03
101500 2504N 09225W 3926 07736 0422 -162 -246 190000 001 /// /// 03
101530 2502N 09225W 3926 07735 0422 -162 -234 016001 001 /// /// 03
101600 2459N 09226W 3926 07738 0423 -162 -241 337000 001 /// /// 03
101630 2457N 09226W 3926 07742 0425 -160 -252 013002 003 /// /// 03
101700 2454N 09227W 3926 07739 0425 -160 -251 013003 004 /// /// 03
101730 2451N 09227W 3927 07740 0425 -160 -214 016004 004 /// /// 05
101800 2449N 09228W 3926 07740 0425 -160 //// 009004 005 /// /// 05
101830 2446N 09229W 3926 07741 0425 -160 //// 346004 005 /// /// 05
101900 2444N 09229W 3926 07739 0425 -160 //// 357004 005 /// /// 05
101930 2441N 09230W 3926 07740 0425 -160 //// 007005 006 /// /// 05
102000 2438N 09230W 3925 07745 0425 -160 //// 000006 007 /// /// 05
102030 2436N 09231W 3926 07742 0425 -160 //// 354007 008 /// /// 05
102100 2433N 09231W 3926 07737 0423 -160 -233 355008 009 /// /// 03
102130 2431N 09232W 3927 07735 0422 -160 -230 000010 010 /// /// 03
102200 2428N 09233W 3926 07741 0422 -163 -221 013010 010 /// /// 03
102230 2426N 09234W 3926 07738 0423 -165 -215 018009 010 /// /// 03
102300 2423N 09235W 3926 07737 0422 -165 -213 011010 011 /// /// 03
102330 2421N 09237W 3926 07740 0421 -165 -209 024012 012 /// /// 03
102400 2418N 09238W 3930 07733 0421 -165 -207 030011 012 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Sciencerocks]