ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

Thanks for posting! I consider these wind speeds to be VERY conservative since EPS members are run at a low resolution.

[LarryWx]

Here is your climo... All Oct/Nov storms within 65 miles of 90L's current position... November 2009 Ida is the W outlier past the Yucatan Channel... Interesting...

Thanks for posting. This is tricky. Because early Oct TCs don't ON AVERAGE recurve as sharply NE as mid to late Oct/Nov TCs, this is biased too far east imo though that kind of track is quite possible of course. If you could somehow post only geneses within, say, between 9/25 and 10/10, that would be more reflective of climo for now imo. But there are likely only few of them from then. What would be better is to show the tracks of TCs near the tip of the NE Yucatan from very late Sep/early Oct

[chaser1]

This invest is really rapidly organizing. I'm thinking it'll get tagged a T.D. by early tomm. a.m. (I think an argument could be made for suggesting it's a borderline TD now)

Agreed, it looks like a closed circulation already

Right?? Tight closed circulation, visually and previously indicated by earlier ASCAT. Bursting convection within banded structure as well as co-located deep convection around the COC. I'd agree that we don't factually know what strength winds have worked their way to the surface but I imagine that if we even begin to get one or two buoy or ship reports of gusts exceeding 35 knots, that NHC might have little choice but to pull the trigger prior to a.m. vis. satellite or confirming recon report. Overall rate of organization is just impressive. If they do the latter, then i wouldn't be surprised if by 18Z tomm, that they skip depression and go straight to T.S. upon recon arriving.

[supercane4867]

Current TCHP

[Blown Away]

COC near 12N/81W... Maybe a tad E of that position IMO...

[ronjon]

12z EPS bunched into two general solutions - Destin.Ft Walton and Cedar Key (Big Bend). Not liking the east solution one bit.

[chaser1]

[/img]
Here is your climo... All Oct/Nov storms within 65 miles of 90L's current position... November 2009 Ida is the W outlier past the Yucatan Channel... Interesting...

I think this year is still one of those that climo isn't going to really show us much.

True, if you're thinking there's a significant chance of this storm making landfall in Louisiana (or Texas). Otherwise, if eventual landfall occurs near Pensacola (or points east of there), well then this would fall perfectly within Climo. This all remains to be seen of course but I'm guessing that model tendancies will shift east, not westward.

[chaser1]

Current TCHP

Seriously high octane

[LarryWx]

COC near 12N/81W... Maybe a tad E of that position IMO...

An obvious key as regards early intensity will be whether that will be over E Nicaragua that long, if any, Wed night into Thu. The 12Z Euro only barely scrapes it and thus it doesn't weaken.

[chaser1]

12z EPS bunched into two general solutions - Destin.Ft Walton and Cedar Key (Big Bend). Not liking the east solution one bit.

Charlie redux (well, further west and not as strong....... hopefully)

[caneman]

12z EPS bunched into two general solutions - Destin.Ft Walton and Cedar Key (Big Bend). Not liking the east solution one bit.

Charlie redux (well, further west and not as strong....... hopefully)

Charley was August though. Think organization off Africa and not Caribbean. Hopefully no repeat

[latitude_20]

Not digging how close those tracks bring it to the Yucatan. We're trying to try out from four straight days of pounding rain. Watching this one carefully, it does seem to be organizing rapidly. Any chance they'll call it a TD prior to recon?

[gtalum]

If this one turns into anything, it's going to surprise people in a very short time if the models are to be believed. Time to restock the water.

[Blown Away]

Thanks for posting. This is tricky. Because early Oct TCs don't ON AVERAGE recurve as sharply NE as mid to late Oct/Nov TCs, this is biased too far east imo though that kind of track is quite possible of course. If you could somehow post only geneses within, say, between 9/25 and 10/10, that would be more reflective of climo for now imo. But there are likely only few of them from then. What would be better is to show the tracks of TCs near the tip of the NE Yucatan from very late Sep/early Oct

Per your request, I added the whole month of September and not much changed, so a track from @12n/81W up to the Central/East GOM, per most of the current models, in October would be a first... Keep in mind this map is based on developed systems at @12N/81W...

[SoupBone]

Thanks for posting. This is tricky. Because early Oct TCs don't ON AVERAGE recurve as sharply NE as mid to late Oct/Nov TCs, this is biased too far east imo though that kind of track is quite possible of course. If you could somehow post only geneses within, say, between 9/25 and 10/10, that would be more reflective of climo for now imo. But there are likely only few of them from then. What would be better is to show the tracks of TCs near the tip of the NE Yucatan from very late Sep/early Oct

Per your request, I added the whole month of September and not much changed, so a track from @12n/81W up to the Central/East GOM, per most of the current models, in October would be a first...

Yikes, two Texas systems. EDIT: Nevermind, I see those were in September.

[gatorcane]

Aussie model seems to agree with the GFS and ECMWF on where it ends up (northern Gulf coast):

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View

[gatorcane]

system is looking really good:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[LarryWx]

system is looking really good:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Thanks, Gator. It does look well organized at some levels of the atmosphere, possibly including surface. Are there any buoys near there? It appears that convection is warming but i'm assuming that's due to it being near DMIN. I wonder how it will look at DMAX late tonight.

[LarryWx]

Per 12Z Euro shear forecast maps (I don't know if we can trust them, however..can we??), shear stays mainly under 10 knots anywhere near the projected track of the center all of the way to the Gulf.

[northjaxpro]

Per 12Z Euro shear forecast maps (I don't know if we can trust them, however..can we??), shear stays mainly under 10 knots anywhere near the projected track of the center all of the way to the Gulf.

Well if you believe the shear forecast that is not good news matter fact that's terrible news because if that is correct with the shear forecast this thing is going to be another major hurricane last thing anyone needs to deal with this season that's for sure.