ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Definitely getting that look. Think this will be Phillipe.. Let us hope it doesn’t intensify more than expected. Those NW Caribbean waters are very warm. We already see how just 12 hours has made a huge difference.

[SFLcane]

HH going in today to investigate watch them find a TS it never fails intensity always a toss up until they go in.

[Patrick99]

Looking for development odds to be lowered its really getting a full dose of the cold continental airmass.

For what it's worth, the air definitely feels more "modified" here in South Florida than it did yesterday. I don't know how much of the continental airmass is going to be left.

[Nimbus]

That deep digging front is gone and the moisture is already on the increase in south Florida.
Why doesn't 93L stall on the back side of the cold front till the next warm front lifts it north?

[Evil Jeremy]

Very stormy Saturday ahead for South Florida. Now that development is on the 50%+ side of things, I'm curious how close this will track to us. I'm guessing TS watches would go up for SFL at the first advisory, should there be one. While that would catch people off guard, this isn't a big deal for us. My main concern is leftover debris from Irma that's still not picked up, and can get tossed around with TS winds.

[jlauderdal]

Looking for development odds to be lowered its really getting a full dose of the cold continental airmass.

For what it's worth, the air definitely feels more "modified" here in South Florida than it did yesterday. I don't know how much of the continental airmass is going to be left.

DP's below 60 dont last long in sofla..life expectancy is a day or two

[jlauderdal]

Very stormy Saturday ahead for South Florida. Now that development is on the 50%+ side of things, I'm curious how close this will track to us. I'm guessing TS watches would go up for SFL at the first advisory, should there be one. While that would catch people off guard, this isn't a big deal for us. My main concern is leftover debris from Irma that's still not picked up, and can get tossed around with TS winds.

the core(lol) passes to our south, this is a rain event...no preps needed..they can put up all the watches and warnings they want, entertainment purposes only for this one IF it develops

[NDG]

[Evil Jeremy]

Very stormy Saturday ahead for South Florida. Now that development is on the 50%+ side of things, I'm curious how close this will track to us. I'm guessing TS watches would go up for SFL at the first advisory, should there be one. While that would catch people off guard, this isn't a big deal for us. My main concern is leftover debris from Irma that's still not picked up, and can get tossed around with TS winds.

the core(lol) passes to our south, this is a rain event...no preps needed..they can put up all the watches and warnings they want, entertainment purposes only for this one IF it develops

At this point, there's still no core. The specific place a CoC cements will give a good indicator how close this could get to SFL. It does look likely to stay south of us at the moment, but too soon to be positive.

That said, yeah this is just an entertainment event. Looking forward to the stormy Saturday, as long as my power stays up for football. I am concerned though about Irma debris that could be tossed around with some gusts.

[jlauderdal]

Very stormy Saturday ahead for South Florida. Now that development is on the 50%+ side of things, I'm curious how close this will track to us. I'm guessing TS watches would go up for SFL at the first advisory, should there be one. While that would catch people off guard, this isn't a big deal for us. My main concern is leftover debris from Irma that's still not picked up, and can get tossed around with TS winds.

the core(lol) passes to our south, this is a rain event...no preps needed..they can put up all the watches and warnings they want, entertainment purposes only for this one IF it develops

At this point, there's still no core. The specific place a CoC cements will give a good indicator how close this could get to SFL. It does look likely to stay south of us at the moment, but too soon to be positive.

That said, yeah this is just an entertainment event. Looking forward to the stormy Saturday, as long as my power stays up for football. I am concerned though about Irma debris that could be tossed around with some gusts.

i would be real concerned if i lived in coral gables, the city is suing FPL about irma restoration so guess who gets their power on last..

[gatorcane]

What a difference 12 hours makes. Last night at this time there wasn't much. Just shows what the NW Caribbean can do:

[gatorcane]

Big picture IR loop. Seems to have come alive overnight and no doubt looks a lot less "frontal" than yesterday:

[gatorcane]

and here is a close-up VIS floater. There is a noticeable spin just offshore Honduras/Nicaragua border with convection building around this spin. No doubt this thing is organizing:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Visioen]

Going to be a very interesting next 24 hours. Considering all factors I have absolutely no clue what will happen in that time, especially intensity-wise.

[Weatherboy1]

It's like those bachelorette T-shirts you see: One last hurri-fling before the ring! Haha. That's the way I put it anyway. Quick-moving system that shouldn't get very strong, and will have most of its winds/rain on the east side, and probably mark the end of the 2017 season. Makes for a messy Saturday, but thank goodness no shutters to put up and all that garbage (all this is my opinion only!)

[gatorcane]

Vorticity increasing:

[Frank2]

Before anyone gets too excited about this - the WV shows the jet streak tracking eastward across the GOM this morning, and the second cold front behind it. Essentially 93L is in a favorable environment right where it is - any northward motion would be unfavorable:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

here's the current sounding (30-60 kts above 300 mb):

http://www.weather.gov/mfl/mfl_sounding

[gatorcane]

Before anyone gets too excited about this - the WV shows the jet streak tracking eastward across the GOM this morning, and the second cold front behind it. Essentially 93L is in a favorable environment right where it is - any northward motion would be unfavorable:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Frank looking at the models, the upper anticyclone currently over 93L looks to move northward in tandem with 93L until 93L gets north of Cuba in which case the shear increases. Even the NAM is coming in noticeably stronger this run as models might start to pick up on this increase in organization.

The best bet for South Florida is that it misses us to the east

[sunnyday]

Just an opinion, but I think it will miss So Fla to the east. Local mets aren’t indicating anything except some rain. I would like to know if rain is supposedly going to be on Saturday or if it might be on Sunday instead.

[StormTracker]

Just an opinion, but I think it will miss So Fla to the east. Local mets aren’t indicating anything except some rain. I would like to know if rain is supposedly going to be on Saturday or if it might be on Sunday instead.

I would say both Saturday & Sunday to some extent.